The next Red C opinion Poll is due this Sunday. Any predictions?
Surely the PDs will get a bounce from their National Conference and Colm O'Gormans vote of confidence in them.
Will Berties 1916 postering lead to a revival?
FG and Labour seem to have been keeping a low profile over the past few weeks and Sinn Fein may also benefit from 1916 and their clean bill of health from the IMC .
Recent Red C trends for Jan. Feb and March
FF 37, 35, 33
FG 23,25,25
Lab. 13,12,11
PD 3,4,4
GP 7,5,7
SF 9,10,11
Purely a guess I'd say:
FF- 36
FG-23
Lab-12
SF-11
PD-4
Green-5
The Red C Polls are interesting in two ways, one positive, one negative.
The positive thing about them is their frequency giving them credibility as a tracker of public mood.
The negative aspect about them is the fact that they are telephone based polls and potentially not as accurate as the traditional "face to face" poll.
Assuming it was "in the field" mid this week, then you would expect a reasonable PD bounce.
If they're publishing on Sunday, the poll would have been carried out last week, so the PD conference will not impact. By the time the next RedC comes about the PD conference will have been long forgotten.Originally Posted by CrockerJarman
I'm going to take a stab at this and probably be terribly wrong.
RED C Polls
Jan Feb Mar Apr
FF 37, 35, 33, 34%
FG 23, 25, 25, 25%
Lab 13, 12, 11, 12%
PD 3, 4, 4, 5%
GP 7, 5, 7, 6%
SF 9, 10, 11, 10%
Oth. 8, 11, 9, 8%
Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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These polls are up and down so regular and the results always within the margins of error I wish they would do some more in depth analysis
My best guess (without bias)
FF 34%
FG 25%
Lab 11%
PD 4%
GP 7%
SF 13%
Oths 6%
I think FF will certainly hold around 32-34% between now and election day. FG should peak at about 27-28%. Labour will be lucky at 11% ish. The PDs hopefuly will struggle on 3-4% and get wiped out. The Greens may poll well on election day with 7-8% but as they plan to contest eevry constituency we will not see 8% in seats, just 6 I'm afraid. SF are the big winners unfortunately. They will hold their Dail seats and possibly gain a futher 5 at the expense of poor FF transfers and anti FF feeling.
Only time will tell ..........
Cavan Deserved Another TD!
I'd be surprised if the SF vote increases again in the next poll. In fact I'd be surprised if there is much change either way.
But you may well be correct that transfers from disillusioned FFers could boost the SF vote.
Work for another thread, but my instinct from those I talk to in various parties is that an election is still 12 months away.
"I like you. You're all right. Actually, I like you better meeting you than if somebody had just given me your record."
Joey Ramone
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Just wondering WBS, why would you be surprised if SF's rating rises in the next poll ?
Also, what do you think the effect might be on Labour if a couple of polls in a row were to put SF at a higher rating than Labour. Would you think that some on the Labour people not so happy with the Mullingar Accord might start getting cold feet, and this could cause internal Labour pressure.
(Just an aside on opinion polls, my mother rang me to tell me that she was polled today in Cashel, so it looks like the pollsters are getting round all the constituencies. Thats the first time I ever heard of one in South Tipp outside of a bye-election)
1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?
To say that you'd have to assume that the Fine Gael & Labour alliance is the cause of pushing up SF support. Which would be a dangerous assumption to make
My 2 Pence worth.
[color=red]RED C Polls[/color]
Jan Feb Mar Apr
FF 37, 35, 33, 34
FG 23, 25, 25, 25
SF 9, 10, 11, 12
Lab 13, 12, 11, 11
PD 3, 4, 4, 4
GP 7, 5, 7, 6
Oth. 8, 11, 9, 8
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