What will the FF vote sink to?

[jpc]

There have been al sorts of numbers bandied about.
Red C had FF at 23% last time.
Given the realities we are facing.
More taxes,unemployment,service curtailment.
Pluse the hits that the PS will have to take.
How low will the FF vote sink to?
(And I read on another thread a lot of FF candidates aren't advertising their FF heritage.How low are they thinking themselves?)
I can't see it going less than 21% when all the results are in.

[expat girl]

There have been al sorts of numbers bandied about.
Red C had FF at 23% last time.
Given the realities we are facing.
More taxes,unemployment,service curtailment.
Pluse the hits that the PS will have to take.
How low will the FF vote sink to?
I can't see it going less than 21% when all the results are in.

I'd agree. There will be plenty of ex-FFers who now won't vote Labour since Gilmore has told them they shouldn't transfer to FF or the Green party. Joe Higgins may therefore do surprisingly well in the Euros. Anyone exFF pro Lisbon won't transfer to SF. Libertas transfers are a wild card... but I can't see them going to SF. FG/Labour vote will be well up, but what happens to FF is a bit of a wild card... who will the ex PDs vote for?? Logically I'd say FG, but maybe not since they were a protest group spun off from Haughey's FF. The Greens may mop up a lot of FF voters...usually the polls aren't way off in this country, but I'd say maybe there could be a wider margin of error this time. It'll all be in the transfers. My guess is the FF vote may hold better in the council elections (track record) than the European ones, but I could be wrong. Finally, there will be a record turnout. Which makes predictions less accurate, usually

[an asal]

Well if 21% of the population are still prepared to vote for FF. It proves we have not enough mental institutions. Any parent who votes FF is condeming their children to a life of unemployment and misery.

[jmcc]

17 to 18%

Regards...jmcc

[jpc]

I'd agree. There will be plenty of ex-FFers who now won't vote Labour since Gilmore has told them they shouldn't transfer to FF or the Green party. Joe Higgins may therefore do surprisingly well in the Euros. Anyone exFF pro Lisbon won't transfer to SF. Libertas transfers are a wild card... but I can't see them going to SF. FG/Labour vote will be well up, but what happens to FF is a bit of a wild card... who will the ex PDs vote for?? Logically I'd say FG, but maybe not since they were a protest group spun off from Haughey's FF. The Greens may mop up a lot of FF voters...usually the polls aren't way off in this country, but I'd say maybe there could be a wider margin of error this time. It'll all be in the transfers. My guess is the FF vote may hold better in the council elections (track record) than the European ones, but I could be wrong. [COLOR="Red"]Finally, there will be a record turnout. Which makes predictions less accurate, usually[/COLOR]

That would be nice but, 45/50 would be more like it on a really good day.

[midlander12]

Not less than 22%. Just to put this in context, this is 9% less than their 'disastrous' performance in 2004 and 20% below what they got in 2007. As I've said here before there is a mainly rural rump who will always turn out for the local FFer. I think all 4 Euroseats are at risk as their Euro-vote could go lower. People are assuming Crowley is safe but I'm no longer so sure. Now that Maurice is apparently the candidate in Dublin Central, the Ward Boss can be fully part of the humiliation. Light the funeral pyre!

[super pedestrian]

Anything above 15% would shock me tbh.

[Pauli]

Negligible, hopefully.

[bogtrotter]

Judging by the re-action of former staunch FF voters while canvassing in Westmeath, it would appear that many of them dont intend going out to vote at all, some say they will still support the party and a minority say the will vote for Sinn Fein candidates.....

But I wouldnt write the party off in the locals as many FF candidates are passing themselves of as independents ( with a small i) and no doubt if elected will return to the party....Some of the official FF candidates are even asking to be judged on their own performance rather than the party's....

I expect a total wipe out of FF in the Euros but survival in the locals maybe with a loss of only about 50 seats nationally....

[inspired]

Turnout is crucial. FF defectors can either stay away or vote for some other party. Given the polls, its hard to see them higher than 25 -maybe higher in the locals, lower in the euros. 20 would seem to be the bottom line.