June 5th, Independents Day ?

[wysiwyg]

I was just wondering, are people interested in giving their views on the chances of Independents on June 5th, and how likely or not Independents are to make inroads into voter anger.

I'm asking this because I did a little random research of Independents votes at the elections in 2004, taking 35 different areas (completely at random), and getting an average of the Independent vote tallies.

Lo and behold, it came to just over 17% (17.42% to be precise), which was the actual average vote for Independents in 2004.

Now, since then, and always, Independent poll figures flucuate in the 6-10% range, suggesting that Independents are likely to get squeezed when it comes to elections, as their poll figures are below what they got 5 years ago.

I however contend that the polling figures for Indo's does not take into account "personality factors or local issue driven candidates", and that the real figure for Independents is likely to be substantially higher on the actual day of the election (which I certianly hope will be the case)

For example, if a polling company were to ask how would one vote in a GE in Cashel in the morning, the figure for Indo's is likely to be no more than 10%, as the only prominent Indo that would be standing in South Tipp would be Seamus Healy, and he's Clonmel based at that.

However, in the 2004 Council elections, 22.8% of the electorate vote Independent, and almost astonishingly, in the Town Council election 49.9% of people gave first preference votes to Independents.

Do people think the Independent polling figure is lower than what it will be on June 5th ?

If they think it is, how much higher is it likely to climb ?

Which party's polling figures is likely to drop as a result ?

Just throwing it out there..

[mccafferty cat]

Historically, the national vote for "Independents" has remained pretty constant, despite instances of Government popularity (1999), severe unpopularity (1984 and 2004) and relative indifference (1991)

[wysiwyg]

Historically, the national vote for "Independents" has remained pretty constant, despite instances of Government popularity (1999), severe unpopularity (1984 and 2004) and relative indifference (1991)

But we're not talking about a national vote, we're talking about a local vote. All polls since 2004 put Indo's in around 8%, but in an actual election, names and faces to the tag "Independent", Independents got 17%... and as i described, in some areas got up into the 30's and 40's.

If Indo's were to get 17% again this time, this would be 7% higher than the latest RedC poll... from where would that 7% come ?

[meriwether2]

I hope independents do quite badly.

A simple test. If you are a FF voter, would you be happy if all 166 dail seats were helkd by FF? Yes you would.
FG voters? Yes. SF, Lab, Green? Yes.

Would anyone be happy with 166 Independents? Who would govern? What sort of strategic formulation for the country would arise? How would we elect a majority? Ministers?

We need less constituecny hacks, and more national legislators. By their very nature, Independents only look to their constituency. What of the common good? Fukk that, I got a swimming pool for ballygobackwards.

The local elections feed into this mindset. Lets start cutting off their legs at the bottom, and then we will have fewer Jackie Healy-Rea's, Lowry's and Cooper Flynn's.

Im not saying party politics is the best, but some sort oif rational, nationwide platform is better than a disparate group of incoherents (not in a personal sense, but in a 'getting things done sense).

[JCSkinner]

Worth noting that all three of those you mention began (and in one case is currently back) in mainstream political parties.

[wysiwyg]

I hope independents do quite badly.

A simple test. If you are a FF voter, would you be happy if all 166 dail seats were helkd by FF? Yes you would.
FG voters? Yes. SF, Lab, Green? Yes.

Would anyone be happy with 166 Independents? Who would govern? What sort of strategic formulation for the country would arise? How would we elect a majority? Ministers?

We need less constituecny hacks, and more national legislators. By their very nature, Independents only look to their constituency. What of the common good? Fukk that, I got a swimming pool for ballygobackwards.

The local elections feed into this mindset. Lets start cutting off their legs at the bottom, and then we will have fewer Jackie Healy-Rea's, Lowry's and Cooper Flynn's.

Im not saying party politics is the best, but some sort oif rational, nationwide platform is better than a disparate group of incoherents (not in a personal sense, but in a 'getting things done sense).

Interesting thoughts there, but I would disagree, and not only for the obvious reason that I am running as an Independent. I considered the idea that no party names whatsoever should be allowed on local election literature as I cannot see the need for a whip system in local councils.

Local councils are there to give local views on local issues, which is different from national parliament which legislates on national and global issues. Therefore the widest, most disparate range of independent views would be argubaly more democratic at local level, than simply deciding a party line, and being whipped into it locally

But I value your opinion.

[McDave]

Interesting thoughts there, but I would disagree, and not only for the obvious reason that I am running as an Independent. I considered the idea that no party names whatsoever should be allowed on local election literature as I cannot see the need for a whip system in local councils.

Local councils are there to give local views on local issues, which is different from national parliament which legislates on national and global issues. Therefore the widest, most disparate range of independent views would be argubaly more democratic at local level, than simply deciding a party line, and being whipped into it locally

But I value your opinion.

On the representative level, independents seem to be a perfect outcome from democracy. But considering political decision-making, a chamber with a preponderance of non-aligned reps suggests too much opportunity for verbal showboating and voting impasses to me.

Also, quite a lot of independents (esp in the Dail) are disgruntled party cast-offs. Personally, I'd prefer to see the political system reorganised (again esp. the Dail) to eliminate independents - say a Dail of 61 or 81.

[Ah Well]

I was just wondering, are people interested in giving their views on the chances of Independents on June 5th, and how likely or not Independents are to make inroads into voter anger.

I'm asking this because I did a little random research of Independents votes at the elections in 2004, taking 35 different areas (completely at random), and getting an average of the Independent vote tallies.

Lo and behold, it came to just over 17% (17.42% to be precise), which was the actual average vote for Independents in 2004.

Now, since then, and always, Independent poll figures flucuate in the 6-10% range, suggesting that Independents are likely to get squeezed when it comes to elections, as their poll figures are below what they got 5 years ago.

I however contend that the polling figures for Indo's does not take into account "personality factors or local issue driven candidates", and that the real figure for Independents is likely to be substantially higher on the actual day of the election (which I certianly hope will be the case)

For example, if a polling company were to ask how would one vote in a GE in Cashel in the morning, the figure for Indo's is likely to be no more than 10%, as the only prominent Indo that would be standing in South Tipp would be Seamus Healy, and he's Clonmel based at that.

However, in the 2004 Council elections, 22.8% of the electorate vote Independent, and almost astonishingly, in the Town Council election 49.9% of people gave first preference votes to Independents.

Do people think the Independent polling figure is lower than what it will be on June 5th ?

If they think it is, how much higher is it likely to climb ?

Which party's polling figures is likely to drop as a result ?

Just throwing it out there..

Wysiwyg, as "Indo" minded myself (and apologies for being off thread btw here)

People who are not party affiliated really do need to get down and chatting amongst themselves round these parts in the hope that it might be of some betterment to whoever

There is no Forum, there is no actively subscribed to Group (I set one up but deleted it cos of apathy) who people of such ilk can subscribe to ... there should be and needs to be something started on such front really

[Ah Well]

On the representative level, independents seem to be a perfect outcome from democracy. But considering political decision-making, a chamber with a preponderance of non-aligned reps suggests too much opportunity for verbal showboating and voting impasses to me.

Also, quite a lot of independents (esp in the Dail) are disgruntled party cast-offs. Personally, I'd prefer to see the political system reorganised (again esp. the Dail) to eliminate independents - say a Dail of 61 or 81.

You see that's the prob .... we have Lee yesterday on the Radio about he feels he has to stand up and take a stand (and fair play to him btw re that) ... but he is becoming a part of a machine -> FG ... his views/hopes/aspirations may not pan out as he visualises/hopes them to be ... Indos in this jurisdiction are all that a party is not ... and I totally oppose this concept of eliminating Indos .... what do you want instead? a system of parties and kerfuffle and side tackles and gombeenry? that's already rampant and would be even more so with a complete party structure ..... reorg the political system? in one's dreams insofaras parties have anything to do with it

[DS-09]

Wysiwyg, as "Indo" minded myself (and apologies for being off thread btw here)

People who are not party affiliated really do need to get down and chatting amongst themselves round these parts in the hope that it might be of some betterment to whoever

There is no Forum, there is no actively subscribed to Group (I set one up but deleted it cos of apathy) who people of such ilk can subscribe to ... there should be and needs to be something started on such front really

What are the electoral prospects down in Cork for June? As for independents- I think they take up valuable seats, as somebody said earlier- they only look out for their own constituency, and never the national interest