Ivan Yeats' European Election Predictions

[myk]

From today's Irish Examiner;

My form card for the Euro elections ? the likely winners and sure losers | Irish Examiner

His predictions in short are as follows;

DUBLIN

Prediction: Labour 1; FG 1; FF 1. Last seat a tight call between SF and FF.


NORTH WEST

Prediction: FG 1; FF 1; Ind 1. Harkin to survive.



SOUTH

Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Labour 1.



EAST

Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Labour 1

He is predicting 4 safe seats for FG, one in each constituency. 4 seats for FF, with Ryan fighting for the seat in Dublin and assuming an attractive new candidate in North West. 3 seats for Labour and Marian Harkin returned as an independent.

Interestingly if he is correct there would be no anti-Lisbon or Eurosceptic MEPs representing the Republic of Ireland for the next 5 years.

[constitutionus]

of course he predicts that.

he got his shirt taken off him with the odds on lisbon too.


im reserving judgement on what i thinks gonna happen as i dont think anyone has a clue whats going on out there but i wouldnt put ivan yeats opinions ahead of boscos at this stage.

[TheBigFella]

of course he predicts that.
he got his shirt taken off him with the odds on lisbon too.
im reserving judgement on what i thinks gonna happen as i dont think anyone has a clue whats going on out there but i wouldnt put ivan yeats opinions ahead of boscos at this stage.

I think you are spot on there, no one has a clue at the moment, apart for the REDC poll last weekend is there any other polls for the EU Elections

[Verhofstadt]

It's certainly very early days, however it makes interesting reading.

Much more to come in the next few weeks.

The selection of a FF candidate to replace O'Neachtain will be impact.

In Dublin will the by-elections mean more canvasing than normal and thus a potentially higher turnout than normal?

If so who will this turnout help... MLM?

[eurosceptic]

Dublin: Gay "i have immunity" Mitchell
Frank "disrepect the vote" Ross
Mary-Lou "im not really like them" McDonald

Key Factor: Caroline Simons to take enough votes off Eoin "hello you may not have heard from me in the last 4 years and 10 months" Ryan to cost him his seat.

North West: Jim McDaid
Jim Higgins
Decko

Key Factor: Decko to fill Galway vacuum left by O' Neachtain

South: Brian "i will be president one day" Crowley
Sean Kelly
Kathy Sinnott

Key Factor: Crowleys pro-life vote to transfer to sinnott.

East: Liam Alward
Mairead McGuiness
Mary White

Key Factor: Avril Doyle quitting opens up a seat with Labour best placed to fill it.

[wysiwyg]

SF will win a seat in NW

[TheBigFella]

SF will win a seat in NW

Doubt it, i think the last dail election did huge damage to SF, If they ran Pearse maybe but this new guy has a low enough profile in the NW and the fact that SF Keep chopping and changing policy doesn't help plus the fact they are saying one thing in the North and another thing in the South. SF may get a good return in some parts of Donegal and prehaps Sligo and letrim, but i cannot seem them picking up votes in Mayo,Galway,Clare

[Pat Mc Larnon]

Doubt it, i think the last dail election did huge damage to SF, If they ran Pearse maybe but this new guy has a low enough profile in the NW and the fact that SF Keep chopping and changing policy doesn't help plus the fact they are saying one thing in the North and another thing in the South. SF may get a good return in some parts of Donegal and prehaps Sligo and letrim, but i cannot seem them picking up votes in Mayo,Galway,Clare

Give a few examples of SF saying 'one thing in the North and another thing in the South'?

[Bearla Gan Naire]

..

South: Brian "i will be president one day" Crowley

In no way on God's earth will I give that man a preference to be president of Ireland. There hasn't been a more transparent campaign for the Park, ever.

[jmcc]

Crowley may well be in trouble in Ireland South. I don't think that people in the Dublin media have any idea of how people outside the Pale view FF now.

Regards...jmcc