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About LinkBacksWhat are your predictions for the 2009 EU elections?
What are your predictions for the 2009 EU elections?
Originally Posted by Thar an Phail
The Labour/PD 4th way alliance will run future taoiseach and top the poll IMHO.
3 years is a long time in politics and it all depends on the result of the real election as the (future) opposition will do well
"I thought that I had a duty to help those that weren't as lucky as me." -- John Hume
It is difficult to make predictions at this stage as a lot depends on which of the current MEPs are elected to the Dáil next time.
The constituencies will have to be redrawn as Ireland will have one less seat in the next EP under the terms of the Treaty of Nice.
Dublin will elected a FG, FG and two left wing MEPs. The other 3 constituencies will elect FF/FG MEPs and the occasional crazy independent.
Dunno about that Andrew. Pearse Doherty did pretty well for SF in Conn/Ulster last time out, when people barely knew about him. If he doesn't get elected to the Dail next time out, he might make it into Europe in 2009Dublin will elected a FG, FG and two left wing MEPs. The other 3 constituencies will elect FF/FG MEPs and the occasional crazy independent.
1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?
Bah - our plot to subvert democracy will already have been completed by then and most of you will be in dead or in prison.
Given the intervening 21 months, I'm going to revive this as a topic for discussion. However, rather than talk about the 11/12 MEPs to be elected in Ireland, could people give their ideas as to how the complexion of the European Parliament generally will change.
In each of the 1999 and 2004 elections there was a shift to the right and also a slight shift towards Euroscepticism. As the overwhelming majority of seats in the European Parliament (437 out of 732) come from the six big Member States (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the U.K.) the results in those states will be primarily relevant. It's worth noting that apart from the U.K. and Ireland, almost all other Member States elect MEPs on a national basis. Indeed, Ireland using the smallest EP election constituencies of any Member State.
Do people think that the immigrant community in Ireland, who, if registered, will have the right to vote in both the Irish local elections and the European Parliament elections on the same day, will have any relevance. I would have thought that if registered at a rate of 60-70%, non-Irish/U.K. EU nationals would be as much as 10% of the Irish electorate (allowing for the fact that among those of voting age such people are a higher percentage than among the population as a whole).
In 2004 we saw the first cases outside of Denmark of distinctive Eurosceptic or Eurocritical parties gaining seats in European Parliament elections, which this occurring in Austria, the U.K., Sweden and The Netherlands. None of these was predicted even six months before the election. On low turnout, motivated Eurosceptic voters can reap gains.
My prediction (you read it here first) is that the 2009 elections are going to see a realignment of the centre and the right in the European Parliament.
The socialist, green, left-nationalists (which share a group with the greens) and hard-left blocs are all pretty cohesive, but the centrist and right-wing groups (which account for more than half the MEPs) are a mess.
The new centrist/liberal group set up after the 2004 elections is an amalgam of left liberals, right liberals and centrists. The three groups disagree on immigration (right liberals in Denmark, Netherlands and, increasingly, Belgium, take an increasingly hard-line stance, countered by the opposite stance taken by left liberals in Denmark, the U.K. and the Netherlands), social issues (both liberal groups are largely socially liberal and anti-church whereas many centrists, while economically moderate, are socially conservative.
The Christian Democrat/conservative European People's Party combines Euroenthusiast and Eurosceptic extremes. David Cameron has already said that after the 2009 election the Conservatives will try to be form a more Eurocritical right-wing group separate from the European People's Party. The divisions in the European People's Party are nowhere better epitomised than by looking at its two Belgian components - the Flemish Christian Democrats have become more right-wing while the Walloon (Francophone) Christian Democrats have become more left-wing - to the point where they won't participate in a government in Belgium together.
The Europe of Nations group combines a bunch of nationalistic socially conservative, statist, centralist and populist parties, e.g. National Alliance in Italy, Fianna Fail in Ireland and Law and Justice in Poland. Although soi disant informed commentators frequently frequently describe the group as a ragtag bunch of different parties with no ideological cohesion, the parties in the group are all very similar in nature. For this reason, I predict the Europe of Nations to remain as is, at least as long as it has enough MEPs from enough Member States to qualify as a group.
Papinian wrote
'David Cameron has already said that after the 2009 election the Conservatives will try to be form a more Eurocritical right-wing group separate from the European People's Party'
Wouldn't it just make sense for them to join the UEN in that case. They could even end up controlling it.
I think it will be Mary Lou McDonald to lose out in Dublin. Otherwise no change. 1FF 1FG 1LB
It will be 2FF 1FG in East. If Pete Cassels doesn't run again i'd say a lot of his votes will go to FF. I'd say it will also be 2FF 1FG in the South with the possibility of 1FG 1SF 1FF in the North West.
Of course strong independent candidates could change all this. There's still a long way to go.
For the local elections, I think it will be another protest vote like in 2004. If polls are correct, the Greens, FG and Labour should make gains, but as seen in 2007, this does not necessarily equate to a victory in 2012. I am doubtful that FF has much further to fall in terms of MEPs so I expect them to hold all their seats. I expect the PDs to have thrown in the towel long before 2009 but if they haven't, I expect them to be wiped out. SF should stay roughly the same. Personally, I think it's healthy for the party of govt to be a minority in our local-authorities to avoid concentration of too much power in too few hands, which is why I will likely vote for an Opposition party as I did for this reason in 2004, most likely FG or the Greens, though I have reservations about the latter's leftwing tendencies. But they have shown a pragmatic streak since attaining office, and that might attract my vote in 09 but not 2012. It is also possible I will vote for a Eurosceptic candidate other than SF in the Euro elections.
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