Noel Whelan Wrong - No General Election until 2012

[Supermanpolitician]

I was re-reading Noel Whelan's prediction that there would be an election this year. My own assertion is that this is as likely as me becoming Miss World for the following reasons:

The Green Party have absolutely convinced themselves that they are doing a good job in government. They feel that if they leave the country would go to pot. In spite of the fact that the economy will recover better without a FF Finance Minister, GP think it is better to pontificate in office and give than do anything. They will not rock the boat. The precedent is there with their stance on corruption (most notably Bertie Ahern).

No FF backbencher will rock the boat either. Why jump ship and risk having to compete for a job in the real world when you have a very good TD's salary.

The people will not take to the streets and revolt. There will be protest, yes. But Whelan's prediction of violent unrest is scurrilous. It implies that people will take the law into their own hands instead of at the ballot box. While a small minority will, these minority always have done and will be generally dealt with under the normal rules of law. I think his prediction is undignified.

FF are secretly hoping for revolt. The only way the govt can fall democratically is from within. A small protest that turned mildly violent would be exactly what they need for a couple of reasons. It takes the heat off them and it buys them extra time. FF's mission is to lose as few seats as possible in the next GE.

When the worldwide recession ends, it will take a few years for ireland to recover. If we go over 500,000 unemployed, but get back to 400,000 then FF will claim credit.

I don't think Noel Whelan really thinks there will be a GE. I think Noel Whelan is crying wolf to give FF strenght. It's all a show.

[Libero]

I was re-reading Noel Whelan's prediction that there would be an election this year. My own assertion is that this is as likely as me becoming Miss World for the following reasons:

The Green Party have absolutely convinced themselves that they are doing a good job in government. They feel that if they leave the country would go to pot. In spite of the fact that the economy will recover better without a FF Finance Minister, GP think it is better to pontificate in office and give than do anything. They will not rock the boat. The precedent is there with their stance on corruption (most notably Bertie Ahern).

No FF backbencher will rock the boat either. Why jump ship and risk having to compete for a job in the real world when you have a very good TD's salary.

The people will not take to the streets and revolt. There will be protest, yes. But Whelan's prediction of violent unrest is scurrilous. It implies that people will take the law into their own hands instead of at the ballot box. While a small minority will, these minority always have done and will be generally dealt with under the normal rules of law. I think his prediction is undignified.

FF are secretly hoping for revolt. The only way the govt can fall democratically is from within. A small protest that turned mildly violent would be exactly what they need for a couple of reasons. It takes the heat off them and it buys them extra time. FF's mission is to lose as few seats as possible in the next GE.

When the worldwide recession ends, it will take a few years for ireland to recover. If we go over 500,000 unemployed, but get back to 400,000 then FF will claim credit.

I don't think Noel Whelan really thinks there will be a GE. I think Noel Whelan is crying wolf to give FF strenght. It's all a show.

Couldn't you have posted this on the relevant thread?

I don't have much interest in second-guessing Whelan's motivations for writing the piece. That's generally a pointless (and often insulting) line of discussion.

And you haven't really challenged the rationale for FF TDs jumping ship: that it could increase their chances of re-election. True, any one TD might be scared from jumping at the thought of bringing about a general election but if he/she/they feel that the government is going to fall anyhow, it's much better to have a head-start rather than switch to independent status in the heat and fuss of a government falling...

[Supermanpolitician]

Couldn't you have posted this on the relevant thread?

I don't have much interest in second-guessing Whelan's motivations for writing the piece. That's generally a pointless (and often insulting) line of discussion.

And you haven't really challenged the rationale for FF TDs jumping ship: that it could increase their chances of re-election. True, any one TD might be scared from jumping at the thought of bringing about a general election but if he/she/they feel that the government is going to fall anyhow, it's much better to have a head-start rather than switch to independent status in the heat and fuss of a government falling...

Sorry about the thread...I thought Election would be appropriate but mods can change it if they like.

Only a very strong FF TD could afford to jump ship and very few in the back benches.

But Whelan's prediction of an electionis miles off, imho.

[droghedasouth]

Paddy Power is offering 2 to 1 on for a 2009 election.
2012 is 8 to 1.

Bookies are rarely wrong and those odds show that we will almost certainly have a GE this year.

Whether they fall in the aftermath of the debacle on April 7th or stumble to the autumn, Cowen will be history by Christmas 2009.

[He3]

Political interference with the Guards and with the state broadcaster over the Cowen pictures would on its own trigger a no confidence motion in a functioning parliamentary democracy.

[droghedasouth]

Political interference with the Guards and with the state broadcaster over the Cowen pictures would on its own trigger a no confidence motion in a functioning parliamentary democracy.

I am sure there are lots of electors who would like that to be the picture on the poster in the elections in June and November.

[Question R24U]

I was re-reading Noel Whelan's prediction that there would be an election this year. My own assertion is that this is as likely as me becoming Miss World for the following reasons:

The Green Party have absolutely convinced themselves that they are doing a good job in government. They feel that if they leave the country would go to pot. In spite of the fact that the economy will recover better without a FF Finance Minister, GP think it is better to pontificate in office and give than do anything. They will not rock the boat. The precedent is there with their stance on corruption (most notably Bertie Ahern).

No FF backbencher will rock the boat either. Why jump ship and risk having to compete for a job in the real world when you have a very good TD's salary.

The people will not take to the streets and revolt. There will be protest, yes. But Whelan's prediction of violent unrest is scurrilous. It implies that people will take the law into their own hands instead of at the ballot box. While a small minority will, these minority always have done and will be generally dealt with under the normal rules of law. I think his prediction is undignified.

FF are secretly hoping for revolt. The only way the govt can fall democratically is from within. A small protest that turned mildly violent would be exactly what they need for a couple of reasons. It takes the heat off them and it buys them extra time. FF's mission is to lose as few seats as possible in the next GE.

When the worldwide recession ends, it will take a few years for ireland to recover. If we go over 500,000 unemployed, but get back to 400,000 then FF will claim credit.

I don't think Noel Whelan really thinks there will be a GE. I think Noel Whelan is crying wolf to give FF strenght. It's all a show.

With the exception of questioning whelan's motives, the above would be my analysis.
51 fg +20 lab +5 sf +2 by election winners is still only 78. Not enough. A ff backbencher or michael lowry would need a junior ministry to switch and pull down the government. The greens are doing well in their ministries. That appears to be enough for them eg they have abdicated all collective responsibility for the economy and even public transport.2012 is a long way off though.

[Supermanpolitician]

With the exception of questioning whelan's motives, the above would be my analysis.
51 fg +20 lab +5 sf +2 by election winners is still only 78. Not enough. A ff backbencher or michael lowry would need a junior ministry to switch and pull down the government. The greens are doing well in their ministries. That appears to be enough for them eg they have abdicated all collective responsibility for the economy and even public transport.2012 is a long way off though.

Agree with a lot of that. But I don't think any minister has done that well.

You disagree with my analysis of Whelan's motives. But Whelan is a smart cookie, and I doubt that he seriously thinks the govt will fall. Any thought son why he said it?

[turdsl]

Well,if there's no election until 2012 i do feel sorry for F.G they will have missed the bus once again, but i suppose that could happen especially after Kenny's disastrous performance with Cowen today, he was not able to get even one answer out of Cowen
useless effort.

[jmcc]

Obliteration of FF in the Local Elections and likewise in the EU parliament elections might cause enough problems for FF. If the Greens were also obliterated at the local level then they would be in much the same position as the PDs - a party without widespread support consisting of a few politicians in the Dail. Strangely this would make them the least likely to walk. The most likely cause of the government's fall would be those backbenchers with relatives running in the locals. If FF is obliterated in the Locals then these backbenchers will come under increasing pressure to do something about Cowen et al. Short term, I would expect to see FF making some changes on the front bench before the Locals and perhaps a minor reshuffle of junior ministers - not so much a night of the long knives as an evening of the half-cars. The problem for FF is that it does not have a wealth of intellect to choose from for its ministers as can be seen from Cowen, Coughlan, Martin, Hannafin etc. A General Election is a possibility this year and it may be the result of the April budget. But there is another possibility - a failed budget vote that results in a national unity government.

Regards...jmcc