FG confirm Sen Paschal Donohoe for Dublin Central

[Supermanpolitician]

Sen Paschal Donohoe was officially nominated on Tuesday 24th March, as the Fine Gael by election candidate for the seat vacated on the death of Tony Gregory. Party leader Enda Kenny spoke of Sen Donohoe's excellent record in the Seanad, in particular his leadership of the Oirechtas committee on Europe.
Sen Donohoe paid tribute to Tony Gregory before giving an excellent oration on why he would be honoured to represent the people of Dublin Central. The crowded function room of the Maples Hotel was packed with both stalwart members of FG from the constituency and many younger faces.

[adamirer]

He did well the last time out, be interesting to see if he gets the seat and what SF do in the constituency. Depressingly, this should still be a FF seat if Bertie wants to do his duty. Dublin poll or not, FF should be able to win here if they focused.

[Supermanpolitician]

He did well the last time out, be interesting to see if he gets the seat and what SF do in the constituency. Depressingly, this should still be a FF seat if Bertie wants to do his duty. Dublin poll or not, FF should be able to win here if they focused.

On the contrary, Sen Donohoe will probably win. Ahern's popularity was plummeted since he was ousted and he doesn't carry the same weight when canvassing for others. FF is split and Mary Fitzpatrick, undoubtedly their strongest candidate polled very far behind Sen Donohoe in the last election. Since then Sen Donohoe's profile has absolutely sky-rocketed, not only among the politicos, but with the constituents.
SF have only very limited appeal especially in more middle class areas. In a by election you can't rely on a fragmented constituency. MLMD won't risk being humiliated, and will go for Europe.
Labour have some hope, but since Aodhan O'Riordan has moved, they don't have a strong candidate. Eimear Costello may run, but has no major profile.
Smart money on Sen Donohoe.

[lostexpectation]

has anyone ever chaired one of those committees badly?
http://www.politics.ie/elections/517...n-central.html

[Supermanpolitician]

has anyone ever chaired one of those committees badly?
http://www.politics.ie/elections/517...n-central.html

Laughing at FF's reason for not wanting it on 5th June - because they wouldn't win it.
Since Sen Donohoe isn't going in the locals or for Europe, it doesn't make any real difference to him.

[Supermanpolitician]

Just to clarify one final point:

There were no other nominations received.

[Icemancometh]

Well seeing as he was the only FG candidate in DC last time out, it was always hard to imagine anyone else getting the nod here. Can't see him getting the seat though; I'd imagine it's there for some one on the left depending on turnout and transfers.

On a more general note, has anybody seen any party polling for either of the by-elections?

[Keith-M]

A very unimpressive character with little recognition beyond his Phibsboro base. When FG was increasing its vote share throughout the country in 2007, he managed to actuallt REDUCE FG's support in DC. Even with the ratings of the government being so poor it's difficult to see FG tajke this seat with such a poor candidate. However with FF and Labour still ditheing, he has the advantage of being the only candidate of note in the field with a party machine behind him.

[Supermanpolitician]

A very unimpressive character with little recognition beyond his Phibsboro base. When FG was increasing its vote share throughout the country in 2007, he managed to actuallt REDUCE FG's support in DC. Even with the ratings of the government being so poor it's difficult to see FG tajke this seat with such a poor candidate. However with FF and Labour still ditheing, he has the advantage of being the only candidate of note in the field with a party machine behind him.

Actually FG had no sitting TD in the constituency after the death of Jim Mitchell. Paschal returned from England only two years before the local elections and went from zero to getting elected. Having built on that, he polled well in a constituency where the Taoiseach held enormous sway and resources. Had Paschal been a longer established candidate, he would have cleaned up. Since then his name recognition has gone through the roof in the constituency.

Now here's the rub. He is an incredibly impressive character. I assume your assessment is based in begrudgery. Not surprised. But don't believe me, I'm biased. His handling of the Oireachtas committee on Europe showed that he could work with all parties. Exceptionally bright and talented, though unlikely to appeal to nay sayers and die hard FF supporters.

Probably get 30% first prefs, elected by the 3rd count.

[Supermanpolitician]

Well seeing as he was the only FG candidate in DC last time out, it was always hard to imagine anyone else getting the nod here. Can't see him getting the seat though; I'd imagine it's there for some one on the left depending on turnout and transfers.

On a more general note, has anybody seen any party polling for either of the by-elections?

Left vote could be split between SF / Lab and a protest candidate such as Kevin Perry.
It's a straight FF FG fight to the death. Expect FG to win on penalties...or transfers.