Noel Whelan - govt won't survive emergency budget?

[flavirostris]

It basically comes down to the fact that the Green will have to jump. I don't think that will happen

Whelan when he was on TV3 the other night ventured that it wasn't the Greens that FF had to worry about but their own back-benchers jumping ship and probably the independants as well.

[Benz]

Would Mary Harney jump if tax rises rather spending cuts took the brunt of it?

I'd hope that she's smart enough to see the error of her ways to date. Besides she may as well stay in for as long as she can and build up the ould bank balance and pension, cos it's not like she's going to stand for election again!

[Simbo67]

Whelan when he was on TV3 the other night ventured that it wasn't the Greens that FF had to worry about but their own back-benchers jumping ship and probably the independants as well.

True true and maybe thats true. Some might be thinking of a Behan exit strategy but you wonder how quickly the "first mover advantage" strategy dissipates as more leave.
What's their strategy then as a candidate, independent FF? My, how they have strayed from the ideals of Dev?

[DeGaulle 2.0]

Let's review the maths.
51 + 20 +5 is main opposition, or 76.
Now add fin mcgrath.
Consider joe behan AND lowry.
That gives 79 versus 83.
To get over the line:
JHR will have to want to retire.
Or mcdaid or paul gogo goes.
Or grealish jumps to labour.

Its not impossible but it is a lot of independents risking their livelihood and Deal breaking by two of them. And utter disloyalty by two government deputies

The political temperature is rising..

Interesting arithmetic. If you assume the govt loses the 2 byelections then they will really be in a precarious position after the summer, assuming they last that long.

I wonder will Cowen call an election early simply to stave off the loss of support to Labour, just as De Valera did in 1948 with Clann na Poblachta?

[Eurocitizen]

The mini Budget will be difficult and it will hit all sections of society, most likely 3 tax bands and cuts all over the place. The possibility of the Government falling is always there but I cannot really see it happening.
Can anyone tell me when Noel Whelan was every right? He is an egotist and full of his own importance.

[Question R24U]

Ideal scenario would be for the Greens to cross the floor to support an abff government without an election, but not even whelan could dream up that one.

[turdsl]

Jump where, Her jumping days are gone, when she sat beside Bertie for so long listening to his tales that was enough for her credibility .

[dresden8]

Would Mary Harney jump if tax rises rather spending cuts took the brunt of it?

No, she's not finished re-making the state in the PD image.

She'll hold out as long as she can to get as much state assets out to her PD/IBEC mates as she can before she goes.

I'd say they'd love to get their hands on the ESB.

[QuizMaster]

Ideal scenario would be for the Greens to cross the floor to support an abff government without an election, but not even whelan could dream up that one.

Fine Gael, Labour, Green, Sinn fein, Mary Harney and several types of independent?

Not even Enda Kenny still thinks this is an option.
Anyway, the way the opinion polls are going, there is a problem with the democratic mandate. I know opinion polls are unofficial and the only poll that counts is blah blah etc, but when they all pull the rug from the government so badly, and when so many people are so angry, maybe it's time for an election.
Kick us out if you must. Good luck with Gilmore and Kenny if you think they'll be any different.

[flavirostris]

Or mcdaid or paul gogo goes.
Or grealish jumps to labour.

Its not impossible but it is a lot of independents risking their livelihood and Deal breaking by two of them. And utter disloyalty by two government deputies

..

I think Paul GoGo has proved over and over again that he is just p*ss and wind.
Despite all the posturing he has always toed the government line in the crucial votes.
I would say the chances of him jumping are about zero.
Its never the ones who make a song and dance that you have to worry about - look at Behan who was never on the radar