Noel Whelan - govt won't survive emergency budget?

[yehbut_nobut]

I wonder if ( as some posters have already pointed out) Whelan is kite-flying for a Fianna Fail exit strategy in the form of a GE. Some in FF may have seen the writing on the wall in terms of whats coming over the next few months with tax hikes, social welfare cuts and so on.
Getting out now would enable them to rebuild in opposition while a Fine Gael led government was left to administer the tough medicine and take the brunt of public outcry.

I would say thats about it. FF like handing out the sweets and goodies, not yucky medicine for the stomach cramp from over-indulgence.

[Paddylekker]

I think Whelan is a very good pundit. Yes, he was Fianna Fail and possibly even still holds a candle for them but I've been very impressed with his punditry which I find very considered and very honest.

[john f]

The country needs a mandate for change. Change must be seen as one where the interest of all the nation comes before party enhancement. Up to now we have seen a government trying to survive and do as little damage to the party as possible. Politicians seem to be driven by reelection, thus avoiding the necessary programmes to right their own wrongdoings. All politicians need to put the good of the nation before their own interests. This is not happening, they are all on the "gravy train". Perks and pensions!

[cyberianpan]

I wonder if ( as some posters have already pointed out) Whelan is kite-flying for a Fianna Fail exit strategy in the form of a GE. Some in FF may have seen the writing on the wall in terms of whats coming over the next few months with tax hikes, social welfare cuts and so on.
Getting out now would enable them to rebuild in opposition while a Fine Gael led government was left to administer the tough medicine and take the brunt of public outcry.

Perhaps it is flying that kite ... perhaps also he's trying to perversely drum up support for them to stay (in reality FG in particular would be very cautious of accepting the poisoned chalice pre mine budget)

Though above all else: do not trust the man !

See here
The mystery of Noel Wheelan
p.ie Noel Wheelan

His highest achievement was

Link
[FONT=Arial]adviser to the Minister of State at the Department of An Taoiseach and Foreign Affairs[/FONT]
The mystery of Noel Wheelan
. He failed to get elected as a Fianna Fáil candidate in 1997 in Dublin South East, failed to get elected to the Seanad that same year, achieveing a derisory 20 votes, and failed to get a nomination for 2002.

As said:

1. The man is not an independent analyst, he is a know FF hack
2. He doesn't even have any skin in the game, he has nothing to lose with his loony kite flyings

cYp

[flavirostris]

I would say thats about it. FF like handing out the sweets and goodies, not yucky medicine for the stomach cramp from over-indulgence.

yep. They should rebrand as the "Sunshine boys" Good times Party - great for doling out the loot while its there, no good when there are unpopular decisions to be made.
Historically they've always had a spell on the opposition benches right after leaving a great big pile of steaming doo-doo on the floor. The '80s are a prime example when FG/Lab were left to clean up the mess after the infamous FF Gubu Budget.

[Benz]

Since when do we have an minority government .. Have RTE asked him to explain that???

I was listening to him on RTE. His point wasn't that we have a minority government, his point was that FF would quickly find themselves in one once some of the shaky Independents and maybe even the Greens see just how unpalatable the cuts that have to be made actually are.

There exists the very real possibility that some FF backbenchers, Independents and/or Greens will vote against the Budget because they know that their constituents would never forgive them if they didn't.

[Question R24U]

Let's review the maths.
51 + 20 +5 is main opposition, or 76.
Now add fin mcgrath.
Consider joe behan AND lowry.
That gives 79 versus 83.
To get over the line:
JHR will have to want to retire.
Or mcdaid or paul gogo goes.
Or grealish jumps to labour.

Its not impossible but it is a lot of independents risking their livelihood and Deal breaking by two of them. And utter disloyalty by two government deputies

The political temperature is rising..

[Simbo67]

It basically comes down to the fact that the Green will have to jump. I don't think that will happen

[wysiwyg]

I think he's playing an interesting game, and is offering the country two outcomes.

1. Back us or sack us, and in doing so, measure us against a possible Enda Kenny as Taoiseach scenario

or

2. Sack us... let us cut and run and let Enda Kenny try to clean up the mess

Fianna Fáil are in desperate trouble. They know it too. How they get out of that trouble with the least damage is now their problem. They know in their heart and soul, that a decimation of their councillors in June, will also wipe out a huge chunk of their support structure coming up to elections in the future

[kerrynorth]

Would Mary Harney jump if tax rises rather spending cuts took the brunt of it?