Ministers that could be defeated?

[goosebump]

Mary O'Rourke. 2002. Deputy leader of the party.

SHe didn't lose it because FF were unpopular. She lost it 'cos Ahern didn't like her.

[wombat]

There is only one seat in DL for Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews.

Andrews will hold that seat.

[midlander12]

I imagine FF will have only 1 seat in Donegal SW next time. This would put Mary Coughlan under pressure, though that might be reduced if Pat the Cope stands down. Could it be 2 Tanaistes in a row losing their seats?

[baldur0300]

Andrews will hold that seat.

Yeah Hanafin only got 1.21 quotas last time ........ Talk of a general election is just nonsense. When there is one called, we'll chat about who will win where but until that point, threads like this are worse than pointless.

[The Boy General]

If there were a general election tomorrow which ministers (if any) would be defeated?

For what its worth, here is my list on those that could, potentially and maybe conceivably, lose:

Cabinet:
Batt O'Keefe
Mary Hanafin
Dermot Ahern
John Gormley
Eamonn Ryan

Junior:
Pat Carey
Peter Power
Maire Hoctor
Martin Manseragh
Barry Andrews
Mary Wallace
Sean Power
Trevor Sargent

I think Dick Roche would go.

[kerrynorth]

Yeah Hanafin only got 1.21 quotas last time ........

As the Senior Minister in a volitile constituency where 'constituency work' is less of a factor she would be more of a lightening rod for disaffection than Andrews who also has a traditional family base in the constituency which she does not.

[Odyessus]

None of them will lose a seat. You're just having a wet dream.

Ministers losing seats is all but unheard of in Irish politics. The seats that FF will lose are their second seats in various constituencies, not their primary candidates, and definitely not their Ministers.

Ryan and Gormley are running in constituencies where their primary opponents have left the stage.

Gormley wishes he could be as confident he will retain his seat as you are.

He has never been elected by more than a handful of votes.

[Drico]

Coming from Dublin South I'd say that Eamon Ryan could be in trouble.

5 seats:
FG (2) Shatter and Mitchell will get in
FF (1) One of the new faces
LB (1) Alex White

Then last seat is between O'Leary (FG), second FF candidate and Ryan.

[Catalpa]

Out this way I'd say its a cert that it will be

Varadkar
Burton
Lenihan
&
Uncle Joe

Perhaps not in that exact order but its theirs that will be sitting on those seats when LH reassambles.

[baldur0300]

As the Senior Minister in a volitile constituency where 'constituency work' is less of a factor she would be more of a lightening rod for disaffection than Andrews who also has a traditional family base in the constituency which she does not.

The strength of Andrews is part of the reason why I think that during a "normal" general election FF could well hold two in DL despite the loss of the seat. They both polled very well in the constituency last time and Andrews showed how good of a worker he really is when some on here were predicting he could lose his seat. The only thing I could possibly predict about the next election is that FF will get anywhere between 0 and 2 seats. After that it is quite impossible to say anything until an election is called and I doubt that will occur for quite a long time despite the opinions of some of the posters in this thread and others.