Normally one loses, and since FF are doing so badly maybe more.Originally Posted by goosebump
Dermot Ahern was not the first elected FFer last time, and I have a feeling most of the FF poll toppers vote is very soft.
This about a realistic possibility based on current poll numbers! Not a probability....
Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03
My slow drift to the right continues....
Who was the last FF Minister to lose a seat?
A demagogue is someone who will preach doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.
No way that Trevor Sargent would lose his seat in Dublin North (unfortunately!)
Remember this is the consituency which happily re-elected Ray Burke!
Mary O'Rourke. 2002. Deputy leader of the party.
Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03
My slow drift to the right continues....
Yep - particularly in largely rural Constituencies one will get the following scenario time and time again and it's always been thus;
1. You get a lot of people who have voted FF all their lives and will still continue on to do so the next time
2. You get a lot of sons and daughters who follow daddy and mammy and vote for FF as well cos the parents have voted for them all their lives and that will also prob happen again
Call it misguided loyalty or blind loyalty or whatever ... but it's always happened and will continue
This alone will prevent mass meltdown of the entity known as FF
Honestly, sometimes I think if FFers came in the dead of night and shot a member of the family - these people would still vote for them come the next Election
So perhaps there are people in this country who were "hoodwinked" and might change next time. But there are plenty more who won't be changing anyway and you can totally take that as read.
How long can that tribalism really survive though? how wrong can the polls be?
Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03
My slow drift to the right continues....
It'll survive long enough for FF to be saved from annihilation at the next General Election at any rate and most likely the one after that too .....
And tbh there's plenty FG tribalism round here too .... In Cork NW and Cork SW too for that matter unless you're FF or FG realistically you don't have a rat's arse of a chance of election. If Labour did it there would prob be pigs flying over the Boggeragh Mountains. Obviously any other party or Candidate ain't even worth mentioning
There is only one seat in DL for Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews. All 3 Green Ministers are vulnerable. Martin Cullen could lose out in Waterford to a rural based collegue where the FF vote will hold up better. Batt O'Keefe could be vulnerable in the quirky Cork NW 3 seater. I do not see any other Senior Minister losing out with FF on 23/24% in the polls.
Most Juniors are up for grabs including all in Dublin. One of either Pat Carey or Noel Ahern will go - my bet is Ahern. There is no Junior sitting on a 'safe seat' at FFs support level. Peter Power will go as will Martin Manseragh and Michael Ahern in Cork East if Ned stands again. About the safest Junior is Sean Power in Kildare South which will return an FF seat.
IIRC in the 1977 Election the FG & Labour Ministers took a hammering.
Lennys Da got chucked out in '73 down the sticks before heading West
- Dublin West that is.
Europa Conventus Delenda Est
Unfortunately they are also the two constituencies most likely to break your first rule above.
Worth breaking my "no sig" rule for:
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