Because he wants to join a centerist Government with centerist policies. He's doing a Blair. I can't remember the last time Labour came out with a radical leftist prosposal. They have left that ground to SF and the Greens.Originally Posted by Gladstone
"Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative."
Oscar Wilde
But havn't they always joined with FG and FF who call themselves the centre?
They've never formed a left wing govt unless you count the mildly Social Democratic GFG
I don't think so. There may be a ceiling on the SF vote, but it won't be as low as 9%. Every stage lasts for a while, in 1992, getting past 2% was going to be hard, in 2002 it was 7%, now 10-11% might be it, but I would reckon SF would have to be reaching about 15% before we could talk about ceilings. I still reckon there will be more Labour voters coming over eventually and a lot of those currently not voting would be quite positive towards SF, they just need to shake off the general distrust of politicians which stops them voting.
"John Bull has got his hand down your pants and his fist around your bollox and you can't see it."
From what I've read he seems to be on a path towards the centre. Considering that himself and the DL mob were communists, it is a long strange trip. But then again, with the fall of the Soviet Union, they had to do something fast. And a little bit of money can easily remove the trappings of a belief in communism.
The left has gradually been marginalised as a result of the Celtic Tiger. And Rabbitte and co have moved away from the left. The problem for them is that SF is now moving into that demographic with a vengance. SF, unlike the Labour party has a highly motivated party machine. Labour, on its lurch to the centre has now to compete with FG/FF for votes. But the only strategy remaining for Labour would be an fear of immigration based one where it reinvents itself as representing the interests of the Irish workers. This reinvention could have an effect on SF in working class areas if it has a nebulous, happy-clappy approach to jobs displacement.
I think that the next GE is going to get very unpleasant, very quickly. Labour will be fighting for its political life. It may have picked the right arguments but the wrong opponents.
Regards...jmcc
Right now SF are getting the anti-establishment vote and that's about it really. They get a bit more support around Kerry and the border counties as well though. The anti-establishment vote is about 10%. The workers party held it there in the late 80's early 90's. Max maybe 11%. Unless SF move off towards FF even more, which I know you don't support DOD then I don't think they can even achieve 15%. I think if they do that they will just become FF anyway and FF will just destroy them in there. I think there is a niche in Ireland for the anti-establishment vote though and I think SF can retain that support for a good while. However it has shown itself to be unstable before.I don't think so. There may be a ceiling on the SF vote, but it won't be as low as 9%. Every stage lasts for a while, in 1992, getting past 2% was going to be hard, in 2002 it was 7%, now 10-11% might be it, but I would reckon SF would have to be reaching about 15% before we could talk about ceilings. I still reckon there will be more Labour voters coming over eventually and a lot of those currently not voting would be quite positive towards SF, they just need to shake off the general distrust of politicians which stops them voting.
Right now a lot of Labour support comes from champagne socialists who would never vote SF. It also contains a lot of people who would describe themselves as Social Democratcs who would also never vote SF. SF have basically already taken the anti-establishment vote off Labour, so I honestly don’t think they’re any more to take. I honestly believe SF have already reached their peak in the south.
"Give us the future, we've had enough of YOUR past, Give us back our country, to live in, to grow in and to love..."
Yeah, but there are also the traditional labourites who will eventually say to themselves "What was I thinking" and vote for SF. I don't see how 15%is unrealistic.
"John Bull has got his hand down your pants and his fist around your bollox and you can't see it."
So the days of FG getting 70 seats are gone forever?
Probably. It would take 2 excelllent GE results to attain it- i.e. 55-60 seats next time, and 5 years after that, we would need to have lead the most successful government, probably ever.
Its not a great poll, a result like that wont get us into govt, but considering 2002, its more than we could have hoped for 4 years ago.
That 2002 result has proven to be the absolute floor of FG support. The only way is up, and the LE result showed that there is still upwards of 27% of people disposed to voting FG in this country if we run a good campaign, have good policies and good candidates.
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