Local Election Predictions?

[bradán feasa]

Forgive me if such a thread exists already but for both interest sake and as a measure of political judgement I suggest that interested individuals set out their Local Election predictions here.

T’will be interesting to assess them come June the 6th.

Party.........FF.....FG......Lab...SF....Green.Soc Others incl PDs

2004..........302...293....101...54......18.....4. ......111
2009..........222...343....140...72......10.....7. ......89

Vote ........23%...32%...19%..11%...4%...1%.....10%

Seat..........25%..39%....16%.8%.....1%....1%..... 10%

[Question R24U]

Predcitions are bad at the best of times....this is not the best of times.

[Greener]

All I care to say is that Fine Gael will overtake Fianna Fail as the top dogs of the local authorities (but that neednt be a huge gain for FG). In terms of seat losses, it probably wont be as bad as 2004 for FF, but it will at very least herald the loss of over 100 local authority seats since 1999.

Its a good time to be a labour candidate, I could see significant gains. The Greens will only succeed in so far as they hold or replace seats. No gains will be made on thier behalf. Otherwise, they could be left with between 6 and 10 Cllrs

Sinn Fein will be stunted from their "out of sight out of mind" status which they are currently enjoying, or not enjoing as the case may be. Small gains will be made, but only very small (3-5 seats)

Independents stand to gain, but simply due to the lack of alternatives if people choose to vote on a party, and/or National basis

[stalins granny]

Fianna fail will initially lose a lot of seat however all the fine principled councillors who will resign from ff and run as independents will go crawling back as soon as the coast is clear so in the long term there wont be that much change at all.

[Fingal MCC]

Fianna fail will initially lose a lot of seat however all the fine principled councillors who will resign from ff and run as independents will go crawling back as soon as the coast is clear so in the long term there wont be that much change at all.

I think you might be right there. Lots of independent FFers around.

[cropbeye]

Interesting scenario. I think your biggest mistake is in the Independants as I think they
will do much much better than that.

I would go further than Stalins mother in that jumped ship FFers will crawl in under the radar along with a few out of FG/Lab also former P.D's also religious types as well as single issue
candidates and even a few leftie indos.

Another few points Seats. Greens to stay about same. They are gaining higly repectable carefull establishment votes just as they are loosing radical ones but they are all located mostly in the same middle class areas. Labour wont get as many seats or % vote.
Partly because of lack of serious candidates. Some wards with none and some where the second candidate will be gone long before the last F.G one thus the latter beneffiting.

% Fine gael could get a good few % less and still get almost as many seats as you predict
partly for the above reasons.In some areas votes will go directly from F.F to F.G.

Fianna Fail wil probably not get much less than 28% of the vote. While this in itself would lead to dozens of lost seats in the present climate and this combined with the good result I expect from Independants will mean ; I expect that F.G will be the largest party in Local Government in seats but possibly by a much narrower margin than you suggest.

A Good try though.

[Marlowe]

Forgive me if such a thread exists already but for both interest sake and as a measure of political judgement I suggest that interested individuals set out their Local Election predictions here.

T’will be interesting to assess them come June the 6th.

Party.........FF.....FG......Lab...SF....Green.Soc Others incl PDs

2004..........302...293....101...54......18.....4. ......111
2009..........222...343....140...72......10.....7. ......89

Vote ........23%...32%...19%..11%...4%...1%.....10%

Seat..........25%..39%....16%.8%.....1%....1%..... 10%

maybe a few more independents,but otherwise I think that's a pretty good prediction

[politicsiscomedy]

Fianna Fail to be destroyed, Fianna gail will pick up some of the lost FF votes, but not as many as they may think. Labour will get a chunk of the votes. (The PD's are dead! Yes!) The Greens will get a couple but nothing major. The problem for me is that Sinn Fein will clean up in certain areas.

[Eurocitizen]

I can only give an opinion on Dublin , if the elections were tomorrow I could see us getting about 20 seats but with a few of months to go anything can happen . Lets assume the elections were tomorrow I can see Labour getting 55% of the digruntled FF vote with SF getting 30% and FG 10% and 5% to independants . we would be down 10 seats from the last locals and the big winners Labour and SF .

There is a lot of anger and fear and confusion out there but I hope in the coming months things will get brighter . I am saying this not with the hope we win more seats but with the hope that the people will feel more secure and see light at the end of the tunnel .

I spoke to many people tonight and they are scared they just want to know what the hell is happening . They are afraid to even book a holiday and these are the people with jobs .

There is also a lot of anger among the private sector workers with the public sector and what they were saying is that these public sector workers are only been asked to contribute to their pensions .

I think that the responsibility of all our politicans is to give people hope,the politics of doom and gloom has to stop and we must try get confidence back into the economy and get people spending .

The blame game has to stop people are frightened and we must give them hope .

I know I am going to be told it's all our fault etc but I have met people tonight who do not care who caused this crisis all they want is for it to be sorted .

It's time to stop the slagging and get this country moving again in a forward direction .
We have the talant and we have the potential what we need is the ideas and we need to let our elected politicans from all parties get on with their job .

[brennanjoe]

Fianna fail will initially lose a lot of seat however all the fine principled councillors who will resign from ff and run as independents will go crawling back as soon as the coast is clear so in the long term there wont be that much change at all.

this is the most accurate of all posting referring to the local elections people (ff supporters) for some reason seem to be naive or not want to admitt that they will not ultimatly vote hard line against the paty ff i personally can not understand this mentallity