Irish Times MRBI Results - Labour up 10 points, pushing FF down to third place

[hiding behind a poster]

Those figures are a good indication that FF's working class support is crumbling, with Labour being the obvious beneficiaries

That's it in a nutshell. The ABC1's went first, with FF's support in that group collapsing in recent polls, with FG picking up most of it. Now its the working class vote going to Labour.

[Blueisthecolour]

Political reallignment on the cards?

[pfkf]

Those figures are a good indication that FF's working class support is crumbling, with Labour being the obvious beneficiaries

Very good analysis, in a nutshell

[Chrisco]

Given that Sinn Féin has much more radical left wing analysis, it would not be expected that Sinn Féin would pick up large volumes of support in the way that Labour does. That is: the portion of FF support that transferred to Sinn Féin would be those who have opted to jump over Labour to go for a more radical change in economic philosophy.

Not necessarily: it could just be churn, and some former stickies in Labour have drifted over and been replaced by the hordes of working class people who are abandoning Fianna Fail.

[hiding behind a poster]

Political reallignment on the cards?

To some extent, but not to the extent of Labour actually overtaking FF. They don't have the organisation, or the infrastructure, to take full advantage of this. They could probably poll 20%, but I reckon both FF and FG would pull a couple of per cent each from around the edges of that 24%.

[Simbo67]

Yeah, that sums it up pretty much. In the last election fg did well amongst young and abc1 but then the abc1 made the big move over the last few months. Now the working class are shifting away from FF too. Jesus.

[W..R.H]

Woah, those figures sure are startling. Question is, were the events of yesterday taken into account by pollsters? Most probably not. Therefore after the public reaction to that, FF would surely be further. Amazing

Shall I quote your post HBAP or are you going to start a new thread?

[Blueisthecolour]

We could be seeing the decay of FF all the same.

We could be seeing a reallignment where we have centre left v centre right in the shape of FG v Lab. Traditionally FF pulled votes that could naturally belong in either camp....now those votes are abandoning it.

Early days of course.

[jdckelly]

mother of god ff at 22?!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[flavirostris]

Neither. It is a good message, well sold, but not a message that is immediately appreciated; rather it is a message that will be understood gradually. With only a slow release effect on Sinn Féin growth. Also the media give SF very little airtime so that hinders SF's ability to get the message out.

Given that Sinn Féin has much more radical left wing analysis, it would not be expected that Sinn Féin would pick up large volumes of support in the way that Labour does. That is: the portion of FF support that transferred to Sinn Féin would be those who have opted to jump over Labour to go for a more radical change in economic philosophy.

factual, if you guys can start eating into their republican support now, we'll get them down to 10% and hopefully consign them to the political dustbin forever.