Galway council elections what will happen?

[galwayboy]

I'm just wondering if anybody has any info or views on the local elections in Galway .
They seem very interesting with the collapse of the Pds .

Will the greens hold on in the city and where will PD vote go?

8 councillors for 7 seats in Tuam area who will lose out?

Will Sinn fein hold on in Ballinasloe?

Just wondering if anypne has an opinion.

[Marlowe]

I was reading a report fairly recently that Noel Grealish is trying to set up a type of independent umbrella organisation in Galway for all former PD members-just like Michael Lowry's organisation in Tipp.Presumably they would support him in Dail elections and he would likewise support them for the locals.Interestingly,this would suggest he may have abandoned the idea of joining FF-hardly surprising in the current climate

[TheJudge]

Well, I doubt city Councillor Donal Lyons will be joining any such independent group. He was most unhappy with Grealish and his behaviour in the last few months of the PDs.

[alltheway]

unfortunatly i think Carey will lose out in Tuam due to Mary Hoade coming into the area and i think SF have a good chance of retaining the seat in Ballinasloe

Hard to call any of the areas in fairness

[Marlowe]

Well, I doubt city Councillor Donal Lyons will be joining any such independent group. He was most unhappy with Grealish and his behaviour in the last few months of the PDs.

I hear that all the former PD councillors have been courted by the main parties.As of now indications are that they will stay independent.Interesting what you say about Donal Lyons.I think he is very likely to retain his seat.Would you agree?

[TheJudge]

Marlowe, yes I would. It would be a huge shock if Lyons didn't retain his seat, it's hard to imagine how it could happen.

[Marlowe]

unfortunatly i think Carey will lose out in Tuam due to Mary Hoade coming into the area and i think SF have a good chance of retaining the seat in Ballinasloe

Hard to call any of the areas in fairness

A lot might depend on how much of a backlash there is against the govt.Obviously,local factors and candidates are important,and in normal cicumstances a FF gain would be almost certain,but public anger is such that Hoade is by no means certain to retain her seat,especially with her home base split in two

[alltheway]

How about ballinasloe 2 FF 2 FG SF1?

No sure yet if FF have picked their third candidate yet, from what im hearing, there is a strong feeling that Connolly (SF) will hold on even all parties seem to think that they are after his seat

[Marlowe]

I suppose its a bit early to start making meaningful predictions insofar as we dont even know the full list of candidates yet.
However,I'm going to have a shot in the dark anyway.
Firstly though,I would like to begin with a few general observations:
We all tend to more or less favour the status quo;Its often difficult to see incumbents losing their seats,so our predictions tend to be on the conservative side.However,there are always surprises,so I am trying to keep this in mind;
Secondly,unless something really dramatic happens FF seem certain to lose some seats;conversely,with increased poll ratings, FG should gain.
Labour,I believe, should also do quite well.
Support levels 2004:
FF-35%;Could drop to around 30%
FG-28%;Will expect to hit around 33%
Lab-3%;Should increase
PD's-9%;Running as indos,they could retain a good portion of this
GP-I%;Probably not much change
SF-Could have slight increase
Others-20%
So, here goes
Tuam
FF -2
FG-3
Lab-1
Ind-1
No change
Oranmore
FF-1
FG-1
Ind-1
Lab-1
Lab gain from FG.Without FHE running for FG,Lab could create major shock.
Ind gain from PD
Ballinasloe
FG-3
FF-1
SF-1
FG gain from FF.This would be a major shock,but there will be surprises
LOUGHREA
FG-3
FF-2
Ind-2
FG gain from PD
CONNEMARA
FF-3
FG-2
Ind-2 FG gain from PD
FF might struggle here,but I give them the benefit of the doubt because of the O'Cuiv factor
Overall
FF 9-1
FG 12+2
Lab 2+1
SF 1+0
Ind 6


So there you have it;probably wrong,but then most election predictions usually are!!

[athenrycastle]

I suppose its a bit early to start making meaningful predictions insofar as we dont even know the full list of candidates yet.
However,I'm going to have a shot in the dark anyway.
Firstly though,I would like to begin with a few general observations:
We all tend to more or less favour the status quo;Its often difficult to see incumbents losing their seats,so our predictions tend to be on the conservative side.However,there are always surprises,so I am trying to keep this in mind;
Secondly,unless something really dramatic happens FF seem certain to lose some seats;conversely,with increased poll ratings, FG should gain.
Labour,I believe, should also do quite well.
Support levels 2004:
FF-35%;Could drop to around 30%
FG-28%;Will expect to hit around 33%
Lab-3%;Should increase
PD's-9%;Running as indos,they could retain a good portion of this
GP-I%;Probably not much change
SF-Could have slight increase
Others-20%
So, here goes
Tuam
FF -2
FG-3
Lab-1
Ind-1
No change
Oranmore
FF-1
FG-1
Ind-1
Lab-1
Lab gain from FG.Without FHE running for FG,Lab could create majour shock.
Ind gain from PD
Ballinasloe
FG-3
FF-1
SF-1
FG gain from FF.This would be a major shock,but there will be surprises
LOUGHREA
FG-3
FF-2
Ind-2
FG gain from PD
CONNEMARA
FF-3
FG-2
Ind-2 FG gain from PD
FF might struggle here,but I give them the benefit of the doubt because of the O'Cuiv factor
Overall
FF 9-1
FG 12+2
Lab 2+1
SF 1+0
Ind 6


So there you have it;probably wrong,but then most election predictions usually are!!

Not a bad stab at it! Just a couple of questions. Where you have indicated "FG gain from PD" in Loughrea are you saying that the current PD guy Maher (who is now expected to join FG) will keep his seat? Also in Connemara are you predicting Welby will lose his seat?