Dublin Central - Comparison between 2004 and 2007 (Maps)

[Casualbets]

In response to LabourLover's request, I have done maps showing FF's, FG's, and LAB's performance in Dublin Central in 2004 and 2007. I've also cross-referenced the tallies with Census social data to give a breakdown in the shifts of support in different areas...

It should be noted that the electorate in Dublin Central is probably more working-class than the population, particularly in the Inner city...



What's interesting to note tho is that FF seem to have taken votes off Fine Gael and Labour in middle class areas and Sinn Fein in working-class areas besides also benefitting directly from the increased turnout... As can be seen the Sinn Fein vote was halved in all areas...

Bertie's presence on the ticket hit Fine Gael and Labour especially hard in middle-class areas it seems...

The maps for FF, FG and LAB follow...

[Casualbets]

[Casualbets]

Any insight welcome

[mccafferty cat]

While these maps and statistics are interesting to read, I think their practical value is hugely negated by the "Bertie factor". His presence clearly skewed the 2007 election result, and makes his absence from the by-election ticket impossible to predict

[mccafferty cat]

I suppose the only really noteworthy issue for me is the scale of the devastation of the SF vote in 2007. They clearly lost a share above and beyond what any "Bertie factor" might have done to them, brought about largely (I would guess) by their poor choice of candidate

[Casualbets]

I suppose the only really noteworthy issue for me is the scale of the devastation of the SF vote in 2007. They clearly lost a share above and beyond what any "Bertie factor" might have done to them, brought about largely (I would guess) by their poor choice of candidate

Partly perhaps, but I think (a) Adams performance in the TV debate affected SF in working-class areas across the city and (b) the 2004 vote was in a part a protest vote (Bin Tax, Smoking Ban, etc.) which wasn't going to be repeated in a general election...

In other words, Nicky Kehoe might have got an extra 500, 1000 or even 1500 votes but still wouldn't have been elected...

[locke]

Is there any reason the Bertie factor would have been more important in Dublin Central in 2007 than in 2002?

[hiding behind a poster]

Is there any reason the Bertie factor would have been more important in Dublin Central in 2007 than in 2002?

Yes. Pathetic, idiotic, misplaced sympathy among his constituents because the Big Bad Nasty Tribunal was out to get Poor Nice Decent Friendly Little Bertie.

[badboy2]

Yes. Pathetic, idiotic, misplaced sympathy among his constituents because the Big Bad Nasty Tribunal was out to get Poor Nice Decent Friendly Little Bertie.

That was a ruse devised by the FF press office to try and get FG to lay off Bertie before the last election.

FF got a bounce out of Bertie's original Dobbo interview. It was a one off but FF fooled FG into backing off Bertie allowing Brian Cowen to take centre stage in the campaign. FF always wanted 07 to be about the economy.

The 2007 Bertie Bounce in central has at least two rather more mundane and simple causes

1) His running mate was a complete cabbage in 2007 compared with 2002.
2) Pascal Donoghue bucked the national trend and managed to shrink the FG vote - hardly suprising as he was replacing the late Jim Mitchell.
I think the 2% that Pascal lost probably went to Bertie

[mccafferty cat]

I remember reading in one of the newspapers at the time that Bertie topped the poll in every box in the constituency.........apart from two in Glasnevin which were topped by Paschal Donohoe.

Casualbets can you confirm this?

If so then it's some achievement! Amazing that Gregory, Costello or McDonald didn't top their own boxes at least.........