N Ireland 09 General Election

[Queen Scotia]

With a little over two years to go, it will be interesting to start a thread on the next General ELection in Northern Ireland.

As things stand, I think that the DUP will hold most of the seats they won in 2005. The only one that's under any threat is Willie McCrea in South Antrim. His majority in 05 was less than 3,000, so he may have to sweat it out a little bit with the UUP.

On the Nationalist side, Sinn Fein should hold West Belfast, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, Fermanagh/S Tyrone and Newry-Armagh. They should pick up South Down if Eddie McGrady does not stand again.

The SDLP will probably hold South Belfast and Foyle, while Syliva Harmon should hold North Down.

Any other predictions.

[Garibaldy]

Pick up South Down if McGrady goes? I seriously doubt it. Ruane is damaged goods there, and Ritchie is popular with a lot of people.

Whether some of the other seats like South Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone are held will depend on a unionist pact.

[factual]

Pick up South Down if McGrady goes? I seriously doubt it. Ruane is damaged goods there, and Ritchie is popular with a lot of people.

Whether some of the other seats like South Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone are held will depend on a unionist pact.

The six county general elections are not until 2010.

Sinn Féin have taregts of South Down, Foyle, Upper Bann, and North Belfast.

[Keith-M]

A fascinating election, but there's no guarantee it will be in 2009. With Labour ratings the way they are, Brown may play it long and not go until 2010.

All three SDLP seats are vulnerable; Foyle and South Down to SF, South Belfast to the DUP or an agreed Unionist candidate.

SF in turn are also vulnerable to agreed Unionist candidate in Fermanagh/South Tyrone.

Lady Hermon may not stand in North Down, but even if she stands down the UUP should just about hold off a DUP challenge.

[TradCat]

It would make sense for the SDLP and Sinn Fein to have a pact. A free run for SF in F/ST and North Belfast and for the SDLP in Foyle and South Belfast.

[MacCoise]

European elections in June will be interesting. Jim Allister's support will be tested and the UUP will basically run as Tories.

There is a real possibility of SF becoming the biggest aprty

[factual]

These pakts never seem to actually happen in practice. I think the SDLP will soon disappear at MP level and fall even further at MLA councillor level. SF are getting stronger up there.

[hopi watcher]

These pakts never seem to actually happen in practice. I think the SDLP will soon disappear at MP level and fall even further at MLA councillor level. SF are getting stronger up there.

Yes I agree. The UUP pact with the Cons could seriously backfire. Labour will not win the next election but may, if the figures are right, do a deal with the Libs. Either way it will be an interesting election with little or no goodies to be handed around.

[MartinP]

It would make sense for the SDLP and Sinn Fein to have a pact. A free run for SF in F/ST and North Belfast and for the SDLP in Foyle and South Belfast.

I can't see the provos letting the stoops have a free run in Foyle. Martina Anderson will be hoping for that seat. A free run for the provos in F/ST and a free run for the stoops in South Belfast maybe?

What are the demographics of F/ST, North Belfast and South Belfast? If an agreed nationalist and and agreed unionist were to run in each of those three constituencies who would take the seats?

[MacCoise]

What are the demographics of F/ST, North Belfast and South Belfast? If an agreed nationalist and and agreed unionist were to run in each of those three constituencies who would take the seats?

Both North and South Belfast have unionist majorioties although the demographic in North are shifting

Fermanagh South Tyropne has a nationalist majority