FF to have no seat in DSW?

[drjimryan]

hi all......

just going through the papers...doom and gloom for our once great party?

The indo have a list of possible seat losses, and include our minister Lenihan in DSW.

With charlie recently giving a major disguised 'hint' on newstalk and privately admitting to his close circle that he will announce his retirement soon and will not contest the next election, i'm just wondering......

does that mean that we will face the prospect of havin no FF representation in dsw after the next election(having recently 'walked' the area and having listened to peoples anger), a prospect which I rekon is real.......

in addition it seems the ff candiaates will be 'wiped out' next june with only marie ardagh elected in central and jim daly in south...

SO I ask...what will we do?, who will take the 4 dsw seats? and the council?....


or are the sindo merely having an 'off' sunday?

[Question R24U]

we can except about 30 'off sundays' until the locals. The get Biffo campaign is in full swing. Members, councillors and other public reps need to rally around Cowen and the government and start a proper backlash.

[kerrynorth]

For FF to lose 2 seats is not probable. Who will take them off FF? SF to regain their seat is likely but who will win a 2nd seat? Is their a strong Indo that could take a chunk of Charlie O'Connor's vote.

[hiding behind a poster]

For FF to lose 2 seats is not probable. Who will take them off FF? SF to regain their seat is likely but who will win a 2nd seat? Is their a strong Indo that could take a chunk of Charlie O'Connor's vote.

That's the point, there isn't. Even if FF's vote was cut in half they'd still have 19% in DSW, which is virtually a quota. More significantly, there's no strong sixth candidate for a seat, its been 4 from 5 in the last two elections, with no prospect of that changing. FG aren't in a position to run a second candidate, the Greens and SWP are nowhere, and there's no high-profile Independent. Labour could be brave and run Marie Corr as a sweeper, but she wouldn't take out BOTH FF seats.

[dotski_w_]

hi all......

just going through the papers...doom and gloom for our once great party?

The indo have a list of possible seat losses, and include our minister Lenihan in DSW.

With charlie recently giving a major disguised 'hint' on newstalk and privately admitting to his close circle that he will announce his retirement soon and will not contest the next election, i'm just wondering......

does that mean that we will face the prospect of havin no FF representation in dsw after the next election(having recently 'walked' the area and having listened to peoples anger), a prospect which I rekon is real.......

in addition it seems the ff candiaates will be 'wiped out' next june with only marie ardagh elected in central and jim daly in south...

SO I ask...what will we do?, who will take the 4 dsw seats? and the council?....


or are the sindo merely having an 'off' sunday?

it's pretty clear they are assuming Charlie runs again, otherwise they'd have made the point that it was a loss of 2.

Even assuming the recent polls were translated to DSW in the next GE, FF FG and LP would all get over 20%, last seat would probably be picked up by SF

[Keith-M]

There's no way FF would lose two, If COC doesn't stand in helps CL hold the seat. However with COC out of the picture, SF would be expected to take a FF seat.

[SEANSOUTH]

Dear Dr. Jim,

While appreciating that you live in North County Dublin and therefore have very little contact with your home base and family in Tallaght and Wexford, I would point out that Jim Daly is actually running in the new Clondalkin electoral area in 2009.

Your comments about where you thought Jim was running is indicative about your knowledge and indeed insight in Dublin South West.

[locke]

I couldn't imagine FF failing to bring home a TD in any of the 4 or 5 seaters. You only need 20% of the vote in a 4 seater to take a seat.

In fact, even among the three seaters, the only potential I can see for them failing to take a seat is Kerry North in the event of a bad decline in vote, vote management based around them getting 35% and most of the voters abandoning the party choosing Labour instead. i.e. even in the most likely constituency, it's very unlikely.

[kerrynorth]

I couldn't imagine FF failing to bring home a TD in any of the 4 or 5 seaters. You only need 20% of the vote in a 4 seater to take a seat.

In fact, even among the three seaters, the only potential I can see for them failing to take a seat is Kerry North in the event of a bad decline in vote, vote management based around them getting 35% and most of the voters abandoning the party choosing Labour instead. i.e. even in the most likely constituency, it's very unlikely.

No chance of losing their North Kerry seat either as it is now Kerry North/West Limerick with more rural vote added. There may (hopefully) be a change in FF TD but that is about the size of it.

[peader odonnell]

No chance of losing their North Kerry seat either as it is now Kerry North/West Limerick with more rural vote added. There may (hopefully) be a change in FF TD but that is about the size of it.

SINCE ff started contesting elections in 27 they have held a seat in every constituancy, and always will ,a duck would be elected for ff. Amazed to see Harry McGee predicting no ff seat in DSE in 07,also the pol cors were predicting no seat in Kerry North in 02.