Current poll ratings transferred to next year's elections.

[Keith-M]

I know how much some people here like my extrapolations of polls into election results (esp. FG supporters*) so I'm going to do this on a monthly basis for the next few months and more frequently in the run up to next year's local and European elections.

LOCAL AUTHORITY SEATS (Comparison to 2004 in brackets):
FF : 255 (-47)
FG : 343 (+50)
Lab : 127 (+26)
SF : 64 (+10)
GP : 24 (+6)
PDs : 14 (-5)
Others : 56 (-40).

One major caveat is that others (especially independents) do far better in local elections than in polls and it would be quite surprising if the number of others actually fell below 80 in June.
CONCLUSION : In 2004, a swing of just 5 seats (less that .1%) would have seen FG overtake FF in terms of council seats. Based on the current poll figures, there is no doubt that FG are going to be the biggest party in terms of councillors in June. Indeed with a gain of 50 seats, they would take overall control of several councils. Should the PDs still be around in June, they should expect to lose over a quarter of their seats. If they fold between now and the elections it will be very interesting to see where their votes and seats go.

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS:
DUBLIN PROJECTED VOTE SHARE;
FF : 21
FG : 26
Lab : 33
SF : 13
GP : 14
Others : 4
Based on today's poll SF are certain to lose their seat. FF need to consider whether to run two candidates.

EAST PROJECTED VOTE SHARE;
FF : 23
FG : 49
Lab : 19
SF : 8
GP : 8
Others : 3
It's as you were here, with FG holding their two seats with ease. The threat to the FF seat could come from Labour if SF and Green transfer to to Labour, but with 23%, FF should hold on.

NORTH WEST PROJECTED VOTE SHARE;
FF : 24
FG : 29
Lab : 5
SF : 14
Others : 15
One seat for FF and FG and the mother of all battles for the third with FF and FG in the hunt for a second with SF also chasing Harkin's seat. My caveat about "others" being underepresented in polls hold here as well and Harkin should just about hang on.

SOUTH PROJECTED VOTE SHARE;
FF : 37
FG : 30
Lab : 6
SF : 6
GP : 3
Others : 10
Easiest one to call; no change, 2 FF, 1 FG.

CONCLUSION : FG to consolidate their position as Ireland's biggest party in Europe, no major progress for Labour, despite better showings. SF to lose their only MEP in this country.

* The predictions were actually quite accurate in the 2007 elections and signalled a FF/PD/GP coalition long before it was being considered as a viable option by most people.

[junketman]

Yes FG are soaring ahead in the polls and the prospect of them being Ireland's largest political party really only a matter of time now, well the next general election.

Thankfully all those who continued to support FF through thick and thin, and those floating voters who tended at the last moment to go with FF by being 'persuaded' by hacks like Eoin Harris, are coming to see the error of their ways.

Hopefully they won't go back to their old bad habits of voting FF and they have realised that FF are the wrong people to run the economy.

[FutureTaoiseach]

I don't think Red C have released regional breakdowns for this poll so I don't necessarily agree with you that SF are set to lose their seat in Dublin. In fact, I think the euro elections may be unique on this occasion because of the extent to which the Lisbon issue may hang over that election as a determinant of voter-intention. I see FF's seat in Dublin as endangered.

[bradán feasa]

I know how much you support Irish freedom Keith-M so a gentle reminder that you forgot about Bairbre De Brún and Ireland North.

Also where did you get the regional poll percents from?

[Keith-M]

I know how much you support Irish freedom Keith-M so a gentle reminder that you forgot about Bairbre De Brún and Ireland North.

Not at all. I said "SF to lose their only MEP in this country." De Brun is an MEP for a UK constituency.

Also where did you get the regional poll percents from?

I extrapolated the national and regional votes shares from 2004 to the national vote share reported in the recent poll. It's not ideal, but it's a start, paricularly when you're dealing with a lot of the same candidates.

[hiding behind a poster]

I extrapolated the national and regional votes shares from 2004 to the national vote share reported in the recent poll. It's not ideal, but it's a start, paricularly when you're dealing with a lot of the same candidates.

That's stretching things a hell of a long way, Keith. I presumed at first that you'd got the regional breakdown of the recent poll from somewhere - but in the absense of that, this exercise is fairly pointless.

[hiding behind a poster]

The predictions were actually quite accurate in the 2007 elections and signalled a FF/PD/GP coalition long before it was being considered as a viable option by most people.

No they didn't. Anyone predicting FF at 70 seats or over was signalling a FF/PD/GP coalition as being theoretically possible. You weren't a trailblazer with that one.

[Keith-M]

That's stretching things a hell of a long way, Keith. I presumed at first that you'd got the regional breakdown of the recent poll from somewhere - but in the absense of that, this exercise is fairly pointless.

No it's not, converting national vote shares into large regional divisions based on a similar poll from four years earlier, with many of the same candidates is far from perfect, but people seem content to convert polls into much smaller (consequently harder to predict) Dail constituencies where many of the candidates are new to predict what a poll may mean in terms of losses if there was a general election.

As I said, it's not ideal, but the alternative (regional vote shares based on very low sample sizes) is as bad if not worse.

[bradán feasa]

I'm afeard that you are all a bit makey uppy Keith-M.

[factual]

SF : 64 (+10)

Encouraging result for Sinn Féin representing that slow sustainable increase that Sinn Féin strategy has been aiming for.