What I mean is if these were the GE results how does the parties' number of seats change?Originally Posted by wombat
Also if the government did collapse like the spring/reynolds one, would the President insist that another coalition be formed like Robinson in the 90s? Or is this even what happened?
It doesn't, really. Though to hazard a very rough guess, it would probably drop FF to at best one seat in each constituency, with maybe two in the 5-seaters where they currently have 3. With FF down at about 46-47 seats, FG would surely be at 60 on these figures, with Labour at about 30. But its very hard to be exact, because of transfers - BUT - if FF were down at 26%, they'd hardly be getting a transfer from anywhere, which means all those 4th and 5th seats would be going to opposition parties.
Whatever issue, it doesn't matter. SF strategy leads the way!
A poster of some consequence...
So, let me get this straight - the electorate are telling RedC that they emphatically don't want an FF-led government, but nothwithstanding the fact that the current government IS FF-led, they also don't want an election.
Why's that exactly?
If the greens were really into playing political hardball they would really push FF to the pin of their collar as they hold the balance of power. And if FF don't revise the budget massively they should cut and run. It's the punch that FG should have thrown in '94. An election while FF are completely on the back foot could be the chance to get the mandate a government needs to take the actions that are necessary.
From my time in the Greens there is no adherence to a massive public sector per se, rather to the proper targeting of the state's resources to do the things that the state should do.
Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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FF's lowest vote in a general election was 26.1% in June 1927.
In recent times, it scored 39.1% in 1992 (Reynolds) and 39.3% in 1997 (Ahern).
The problem for the party is this: current unpopularity is not caused by one controversial incident, but by a whole series of measures contained in the budget, the effects of which will only be felt over time.
Lenihan, in fact, dropped a cluster bomb that now carpets the political terrain on which FF representatives walk.
In these circumstances, it will be very difficult for FF to improve significantly its present position.
The Greens are essentially a one issue party and a lot of those who voted for them support this environmentalist issue, hence i wouldnt be surprised if they held their core vote since their supporters voted for them on the grounds of the environment and NOT their political, financial or ecomonic strategy. As long as they have their carbon budgets and what not, their slice of the electorate will be happy to have them in government and continue to support them in government.
As for FF...sure Cowen never even got a mandate from the Irish electorate in the first place...!
also i fear people have short memories...FF got kicked in the last Local and Euro elections and since theyre already down from that 5 years ago, dont expect a major drop in the coming year as their core vote will hold them steady enough! they might have a small dropoff in support but considering they got booted last time, realistically theres not a whole lot further they can drop>
Also people have short memories...so long as FF can throw away a few sweeteners in the Budget preceeding the next GE, the sheple will happily vote them in again! sad but true!
No. She was considering refusing a dissolution but Reynolds resigned rather than seek one.
Sorry to spoil your fun boys but the figures are false.
PDs up FF down.
Catch yourselves on...
Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.
You'd only know that were you to have other numbers and since you didn't post any I suspect you have no clue at all what the numbers are. One thing those numbers would be consistent with the idea that MRBI decided to extend their polling period due to very unexpected numbers.
Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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