Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.
No, they wont.
Yes, some will. Some people go to hospital with lightbulbs lodged in their arses, so we cant put a lot of so=tore by that.
But the vast majority og FF/FG/Lab wont go near Libertas.
It doesn' have to be the vast majority for anti-Lisbon groups to gain seats. In the US, people often split the ticket in different kinds of elections. In the UK the party in govt usually loses local elections. FF lost the locals in 2004 but won re-election in 2007. As such, it is just as likely that in the current context where the main parties except Labour are bending the knee to foreign powers and the unelected of Brussels and trying to barter away our independence, the understandible anger of the Irish people may manifest itself in the election of parties and candidates who will fight Ireland's corner in Brussels, and defend the right of the Irish people to self-determination and freedom from foreign rule. The past is a foreign country - we are in unchartered political territory now.A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.
No, they wont.
Yes, some will. Some people go to hospital with lightbulbs lodged in their arses, so we cant put a lot of so=tore by that.
But the vast majority og FF/FG/Lab wont go near Libertas.
And everyone thought your '7 seats for the PDs' seat numbers in 2007 were off-the-wall. Your are now going from the absurd to the ridiculous. :PIt doesn' have to be the vast majority for anti-Lisbon groups to gain seats. In the US, people often split the ticket in different kinds of elections. In the UK the party in govt usually loses local elections. FF lost the locals in 2004 but won re-election in 2007. As such, it is just as likely that in the current context where the main parties except Labour are bending the knee to foreign powers and the unelected of Brussels and trying to barter away our independence, the understandible anger of the Irish people may manifest itself in the election of parties and candidates who will fight Ireland's corner in Brussels, and defend the right of the Irish people to self-determination and freedom from foreign rule. The past is a foreign country - we are in unchartered political territory now.A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.
No, they wont.
Yes, some will. Some people go to hospital with lightbulbs lodged in their arses, so we cant put a lot of so=tore by that.
But the vast majority og FF/FG/Lab wont go near Libertas.
[color=#FF0000](Guys, when I type in capitals it isn't shouting. I have technical problems which makes using italics difficult. Please don't take offence if you see capitals used!) [/color]
I know the elite can't envisage the idea of the Irish people actually disagreeing with them but they are in for a shock.And everyone thought your '7 seats for the PDs' seat numbers in 2007 were off-the-wall. Your are now going from the absurd to the ridiculous. :PIt doesn' have to be the vast majority for anti-Lisbon groups to gain seats. In the US, people often split the ticket in different kinds of elections. In the UK the party in govt usually loses local elections. FF lost the locals in 2004 but won re-election in 2007. As such, it is just as likely that in the current context where the main parties except Labour are bending the knee to foreign powers and the unelected of Brussels and trying to barter away our independence, the understandible anger of the Irish people may manifest itself in the election of parties and candidates who will fight Ireland's corner in Brussels, and defend the right of the Irish people to self-determination and freedom from foreign rule. The past is a foreign country - we are in unchartered political territory now.A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.
No, they wont.
Yes, some will. Some people go to hospital with lightbulbs lodged in their arses, so we cant put a lot of so=tore by that.
But the vast majority og FF/FG/Lab wont go near Libertas.
[quote=FutureTaoiseach]I know the elite can't envisage the idea of the Irish people actually disagreeing with them but they are in for a shock.And everyone thought your '7 seats for the PDs' seat numbers in 2007 were off-the-wall. Your are now going from the absurd to the ridiculous. :PIt doesn' have to be the vast majority for anti-Lisbon groups to gain seats. In the US, people often split the ticket in different kinds of elections. In the UK the party in govt usually loses local elections. FF lost the locals in 2004 but won re-election in 2007. As such, it is just as likely that in the current context where the main parties except Labour are bending the knee to foreign powers and the unelected of Brussels and trying to barter away our independence, the understandible anger of the Irish people may manifest itself in the election of parties and candidates who will fight Ireland's corner in Brussels, and defend the right of the Irish people to self-determination and freedom from foreign rule. The past is a foreign country - we are in unchartered political territory now.A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.
No, they wont.
Yes, some will. Some people go to hospital with lightbulbs lodged in their arses, so we cant put a lot of so=tore by that.
But the vast majority og FF/FG/Lab wont go near Libertas.
Ah yes, the mythical elite!The guys 90% of the population vote for, which kind of makes them rather unelite!!!
[color=#FF0000](Guys, when I type in capitals it isn't shouting. I have technical problems which makes using italics difficult. Please don't take offence if you see capitals used!) [/color]
Indeed, cant remember the last time a treaty on Europe was voted down.The past is a foreign country - we are in unchartered political territory now.
I meant that never before has a Euro election been held during an impasse over a rejected EU treaty. Remember Nice was resolved in 2002. So the past is foreign country and this time we will be in unchartered territory.
People are much more likely to switch their votes and preferences in a European election
than a General election and of course there will be a smaller poll (which means less casual middle of the road voters)
Of course people usually switch back to their usual party come the general election.
Could be a few surprises next june.
Do you want to defy pigeon holes and at the
same time avoid designer synicism Laugh with
rage!
If FF and FG each run one candidate then Mary Lou would be even more unlikely to get in as you would expect most transfers to go to Labour rather than Sinn Fein. Ryan and Mitchell should have this. Guess we need to see who will run for Labour.
Mitchell is running again. De Rossa is retiring.
Eoin Ryan and Mitchell are safe. (They could weigh their votes rather than count them!)
The third seat is probably Labours, because they will get the transfers from FF and FG, whereas SF won't. SF will get McKenna transfers if she runs (poor lamb!) but that will not be near enough to balance out the massive wad of votes coming Labour's way from FF and FG. To win the seat Mary Lou will need to be massively ahead of Labour, but SF's vote in the capital simply isn't big enough for that. If Libertas runs, then Mary Lou's seat is definitely gone. They will split the No vote, and a chunk of the Libertas vote won't touch SF with a barge pole (and vice-versa). Libertas themselves haven't a hope. Running a referendum campaign is one thing. Elections hinge on the personal appeal of individual candidates. Ryan, Mitchell and McDonald will all have a big chunk of the electorate already personally loyal to them. So a Libertas candidate simply would not have enough uncommitted votes left to seriously challenge for a seat.
Elsewhere East will be nail-biting, but Doyle's attack on the British Eurosceptics wearing leprechaun hats in the parliament scored big and has made no change in East more likely now. Just how much of a direct hit Doyle achieved was shown in public reaction afterwards. One guy I know is secretary of a FF cumann. They had a barbeque arranged for a couple of days later. He said they were all talking about it, singing her praises. A republican I know, a former SF member (he left over the GFA) said when it was shown on the news his three friends let out a cheer at her putdown to the Brits. He said she instantly got their transfers. And the FFers believed that that was the moment, from what they heard of the ground, that Doyle won her seat. People who would never vote for her or transfer to her were saying she really put the arrogant Brits in their place, and that she had won their votes or transfers. Attacking Brits wearing Leprechaun gear, is a guaranteed vote winner.
South will see a change. Kathy Sinnott has alienated her support base, most of whom voted for her for non-European issues but out of respect for the stance she took on her children. She has according to reports lost a massive chunk of that vote because many of those voters disapproved of her close links with British Eurosceptics and right wing conservative family values groups. The old story about a picture being worth a thousand words could well prove right in her case, with two visuals doing her possibly fatal damage. 1) Being caught on camera queuing to get allowances and then hoping on flights home. (There may be good reasons why she did what she did. But the old story 'if you are explaining you are losing' comes to mind, and she would have a lot of explaining to try to explain why she did what she did.) 2) Being seen in the European Parliament alongside British Eurosceptics decked out in Green, with one of those wearing a leprechaun hat, did serious damage. If there is one thing Irish people react very badly too, it is people who come across as treating Irishness as some some of stage-Oirish cliché. the stage-Oirishness of the British Eurosceptics embarrassed even No voters, especially when one later on, a bit jarred, wearing a leprechaun hat, decided to start an interview on RTÉ with "top of the morning to ya". That sort of stuff really really really offended a hell off a lot of people, and a lot of people, and by associating with them, Sinnott has done herself massive damage, just as by attacking them Doyle did herself a world of good.
As to who will take Sinnott's seat, that should be fascinating.
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