European Parliament Elections 2009 Candidates

[enby07]

[quote="FutureTaoiseach"] I see Avril Doyle's seat in East as especially vulnerable (why did I vote for her?) and I resent what I see as her misrepresentation of Nigel Farage on the radio when she implied he was calling the Irish "peasants" when he said that the Eurocrats won't let their peoples have referenda because they didn't want the peasants to have a say - by which he was being sarcastic and meaning that the elites see the ordinary people across Europe as peasants

FT I don't know whether to laugh or to cry. If you know anything about Irish politics you must surely know that to be seen on TV condemning the likes of Farage and his odious Little Englander cabal is electoral gold dust. Doyle's withering remarks about how different Irish history would have been had the English had any regard for the wishes of the Irish people must have got her a load of votes. Libertas have not got a prayer if they are seen to be in bed with the sinsiter and ridiculous UKIP

[john scott]

Yes, Doyle's performance in the EU parliament when the anti-Lisbons wore the green jersey was brilliant. It won't do her a bit of harm in the EU elections in 2009

[observerpolitic]

Avril's little outburst a while back regarding the national flag been flown at her daughters wedding( and boy did she object and try and milk that one).... was an uncharacteristic slipping of the mask so to speak and when it slipped, what was it that was revealed?? a west brit pandering to the anti nationalist sentiment so evident in RTE and the Irish media generally. Other than that particular self inflicted shot in the foot, the only other time shes been heard off is when she attacked the little englanders as a way of diverting attention away from the miserable failure of the yes side in the Lisbon campaign. Will the electorate of the East constituency reward her with another stint?.....god i hope not but stranger things have happened!!

[NotDevsSon]

Considering the time that the government is having at the moment with the economy, Lisbon, and all its other woes, do people feel that they will be adversely effected come June 2009? They currently hold 4 out of 13 seats so would need to get less than this for any change. Dublin is set to be reduced to 3 seats from the current 4 MEPs, meaning Ireland will have 12 MEPs in total.

I have seen rumours floating around this site that Gay Mitchell and Prionsios de Rossa could be hanging up their boots so who is going to control Dublin? Will Mary Lou's seat be put in jeopardy if a Libertas candidate runs or can Dublin host 2 anti-Lisbon campaigners? Personally, I don't think so but I could certainly be wrong. Who are the likely candidates for next year's European Elections?

Can we expect Libertas to succeed nationally and what of the independent candidates in the country? European elections have proved that the chances for an independent candidate to gain election are high. Will this trend continue?

Mitchell is running again. De Rossa is retiring.

Eoin Ryan and Mitchell are safe. (They could weigh their votes rather than count them!)

The third seat is probably Labours, because they will get the transfers from FF and FG, whereas SF won't. SF will get McKenna transfers if she runs (poor lamb!) but that will not be near enough to balance out the massive wad of votes coming Labour's way from FF and FG. To win the seat Mary Lou will need to be massively ahead of Labour, but SF's vote in the capital simply isn't big enough for that. If Libertas runs, then Mary Lou's seat is definitely gone. They will split the No vote, and a chunk of the Libertas vote won't touch SF with a barge pole (and vice-versa). Libertas themselves haven't a hope. Running a referendum campaign is one thing. Elections hinge on the personal appeal of individual candidates. Ryan, Mitchell and McDonald will all have a big chunk of the electorate already personally loyal to them. So a Libertas candidate simply would not have enough uncommitted votes left to seriously challenge for a seat.

Elsewhere East will be nail-biting, but Doyle's attack on the British Eurosceptics wearing leprechaun hats in the parliament scored big and has made no change in East more likely now. Just how much of a direct hit Doyle achieved was shown in public reaction afterwards. One guy I know is secretary of a FF cumann. They had a barbeque arranged for a couple of days later. He said they were all talking about it, singing her praises. A republican I know, a former SF member (he left over the GFA) said when it was shown on the news his three friends let out a cheer at her putdown to the Brits. He said she instantly got their transfers. And the FFers believed that that was the moment, from what they heard of the ground, that Doyle won her seat. People who would never vote for her or transfer to her were saying she really put the arrogant Brits in their place, and that she had won their votes or transfers. Attacking Brits wearing Leprechaun gear, is a guaranteed vote winner.

South will see a change. Kathy Sinnott has alienated her support base, most of whom voted for her for non-European issues but out of respect for the stance she took on her children. She has according to reports lost a massive chunk of that vote because many of those voters disapproved of her close links with British Eurosceptics and right wing conservative family values groups. The old story about a picture being worth a thousand words could well prove right in her case, with two visuals doing her possibly fatal damage. 1) Being caught on camera queuing to get allowances and then hoping on flights home. (There may be good reasons why she did what she did. But the old story 'if you are explaining you are losing' comes to mind, and she would have a lot of explaining to try to explain why she did what she did.) 2) Being seen in the European Parliament alongside British Eurosceptics decked out in Green, with one of those wearing a leprechaun hat, did serious damage. If there is one thing Irish people react very badly too, it is people who come across as treating Irishness as some some of stage-Oirish cliché. the stage-Oirishness of the British Eurosceptics embarrassed even No voters, especially when one later on, a bit jarred, wearing a leprechaun hat, decided to start an interview on RTÉ with "top of the morning to ya". That sort of stuff really really really offended a hell off a lot of people, and a lot of people, and by associating with them, Sinnott has done herself massive damage, just as by attacking them Doyle did herself a world of good.

As to who will take Sinnott's seat, that should be fascinating.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Mitchell is running again. De Rossa is retiring.

Eoin Ryan and Mitchell are safe. (They could weigh their votes rather than count them!)

The third seat is probably Labours, because they will get the transfers from FF and FG, whereas SF won't. SF will get McKenna transfers if she runs (poor lamb!) but that will not be near enough to balance out the massive wad of votes coming Labour's way from FF and FG. To win the seat Mary Lou will need to be massively ahead of Labour, but SF's vote in the capital simply isn't big enough for that. If Libertas runs, then Mary Lou's seat is definitely gone. They will split the No vote, and a chunk of the Libertas vote won't touch SF with a barge pole (and vice-versa). Libertas themselves haven't a hope. Running a referendum campaign is one thing. Elections hinge on the personal appeal of individual candidates. Ryan, Mitchell and McDonald will all have a big chunk of the electorate already personally loyal to them. So a Libertas candidate simply would not have enough uncommitted votes left to seriously challenge for a seat.

While agreeing that a Libertas candidate could split the no vote, I still believe that on balance, MLM will hold her seat because of the Lisbon issue. Many FF/FG/Labour no voters will transfer to her to help our political-elite figure out what the word "no" means. Remember that we have never had a euro election in circumstances like this before so it is unchartered territory.

Elsewhere East will be nail-biting, but Doyle's attack on the British Eurosceptics wearing leprechaun hats in the parliament scored big and has made no change in East more likely now. Just how much of a direct hit Doyle achieved was shown in public reaction afterwards. One guy I know is secretary of a FF cumann. They had a barbeque arranged for a couple of days later. He said they were all talking about it, singing her praises. A republican I know, a former SF member (he left over the GFA) said when it was shown on the news his three friends let out a cheer at her putdown to the Brits. He said she instantly got their transfers. And the FFers believed that that was the moment, from what they heard of the ground, that Doyle won her seat. People who would never vote for her or transfer to her were saying she really put the arrogant Brits in their place, and that she had won their votes or transfers. Attacking Brits wearing Leprechaun gear, is a guaranteed vote winner.

Again we disagree. Doyle will have alienated no voters by encouraging the other member states to proceed with ratification. The people are not fooled by the amusing spectacle of a pro-Lisbon politician playing the anti-British card in support of the transfer of sovereignty to Brussels.

South will see a change. Kathy Sinnott has alienated her support base, most of whom voted for her for non-European issues but out of respect for the stance she took on her children. She has according to reports lost a massive chunk of that vote because many of those voters disapproved of her close links with British Eurosceptics and right wing conservative family values groups. The old story about a picture being worth a thousand words could well prove right in her case, with two visuals doing her possibly fatal damage. 1) Being caught on camera queuing to get allowances and then hoping on flights home. (There may be good reasons why she did what she did. But the old story 'if you are explaining you are losing' comes to mind, and she would have a lot of explaining to try to explain why she did what she did.) 2) Being seen in the European Parliament alongside British Eurosceptics decked out in Green, with one of those wearing a leprechaun hat, did serious damage. If there is one thing Irish people react very badly too, it is people who come across as treating Irishness as some some of stage-Oirish cliché. the stage-Oirishness of the British Eurosceptics embarrassed even No voters, especially when one later on, a bit jarred, wearing a leprechaun hat, decided to start an interview on RTÉ with "top of the morning to ya". That sort of stuff really really really offended a hell off a lot of people, and a lot of people, and by associating with them, Sinnott has done herself massive damage, just as by attacking them Doyle did herself a world of good.

As to who will take Sinnott's seat, that should be fascinating.

I firmly believe there is an anti-Lisbon seat in that constituency. While I agree that video did damage, the underlying issue of Lisbon may help her hold on, or help elect Toireasa Ferris or a Libertas candidate.

However I see Northwest as the most likely gain for the anti-Lisbon side, with SF the likely beneficiaries, possibly at the expense of Marian Harkin. They keep pretty close last time.

FT I don't know whether to laugh or to cry. If you know anything about Irish politics you must surely know that to be seen on TV condemning the likes of Farage and his odious Little Englander cabal is electoral gold dust. Doyle's withering remarks about how different Irish history would have been had the English had any regard for the wishes of the Irish people must have got her a load of votes. Libertas have not got a prayer if they are seen to be in bed with the sinsiter and ridiculous UKIP

With NI sorted out, anti-British sentiment has been on the decline in this country as evidenced by polls. In that context, I think many Irish people have no objection to our 2 sovereign states cooperating on some issues, and certainly Doyle's little stunt in the EP will have fooled noone. If her precious treaty had gone through, UK politicians would have been voting through EU laws and foisting them on Ireland without the consent of the Irish govt being necessary, so for her to be moaning about British interference is ironic in that context when what she supports would mean actual British political power over this country. I think there is a growing anti-Establishment mood in the electorate at present and that will be borne out next year.

[enby07]

You really are codding yourself if you think that people will vote on a pro/anti Lisbon basis in anything other than a referendum on that issue. The vast majority of FF,FG and Lab voters would rather chew their own hands off than give a preference to any SF candidate.

FT, people on here regularly give you a hard time especially after your ridiculous PD flag waving predictions in advance of the 07 Election. I always thought that that was a little unfair but now I am beginning to wonder after reading the fantasies in your latest post. You seem to under the mistaken impression that the electorate thinks the same way that you do and that prevents you from arriving at any sort of objective view of what is likely to occur.

[FutureTaoiseach]

You really are codding yourself if you think that people will vote on a pro/anti Lisbon basis in anything other than a referendum on that issue. The vast majority of FF,FG and Lab voters would rather chew their own hands off than give a preference to any SF candidate.

FT, people on here regularly give you a hard time especially after your ridiculous PD flag waving predictions in advance of the 07 Election. I always thought that that was a little unfair but now I am beginning to wonder after reading the fantasies in your latest post. You seem to under the mistaken impression that the electorate thinks the same way that you do and that prevents you from arriving at any sort of objective view of what is likely to occur.

I was proven correct in my predictions in the referendum. Methinks my tealeaf-reading skills are getting better.

[meriwether]

Many FF/FG/Labour no voters will transfer to her to help our political-elite figure out what the word "no"

Indeed. voters will punish the elite by..er......voting for them, then transferring down the line to some anti-elite.

Not much of a punishment.

[locke]

As to who will take Sinnott's seat, that should be fascinating.

It's really between Sinnott and a second Fianna Fail candidate.

Labour and Sinn Fein are too far back.

The questions is whether she will have lost votes as people have become aware of how right-wing she is on some social issues.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Many FF/FG/Labour no voters will transfer to her to help our political-elite figure out what the word "no"

Indeed. voters will punish the elite by..er......voting for them, then transferring down the line to some anti-elite.

Not much of a punishment.

A lot of them will also give their no.1s to anti-Lisbon candidates.