FF have grave cause for concern about this by-election. Remember, FF managed to lose Padraig Flynn's seat in 1994 (even with his daughter on the ticket) and lost Charlie McCreevy's seat in 2005, in a contest which his son chickened out of, perhaps because he saw the writing on the wall. Flynn and McCreevy were FF giants easily on a par with Seamus Brennan and yet their seats fell like pins at a bowling alley.
Dublin South has a lot in common with Kildare North. Itís a pretty volatile area politically; it has a strong middle class vote; it's not a traditional FF stronghold; it has a zillion housing estates and apartments with voters who were not in the area 10 years ago. So the omens are not good for an FF hold.
I expect Mr. Brennan's son(s) to decline a nomination on this occasion but perhaps run at the next General Election. This leaves Maria Corrigan, who could be slaughtered on a bad day
Tough times ahead for FF