Dun Laoghaire Rathdown CC 2009

[grassroots]

As threads are sprouting like weeds, I thought I would start one on Dun Laoghaire Rathdown. Any views.

Blackrock-status quo is maintained? 4 seats with all of the out going councillors winning re-election

Dun Laoghaire 3 FG MCCs sitting on only 2 quotas. the Bailey machine to hold on. Who the 2nd FG.? Boyd Barrett of Profit b4 people to win. Labour JDB to hold on. FF to win 2 or will the Greens hold on.

Ballybrack- Marren & Bailey to hold on if they run a tight ticket, Labour's councillors to hold on. FF to hold its seat. I assume Tom Kivlehan runs in Glencullen

Glencullen Outgoing councillors win re-election but who gets the extra seat-the Greens? will another of the Bailey party emerge here.

Stillorgan FF to get extra seat here as Foxrock stronghold comes in.

Dundrum-outgoing councillors look ok here or am I wrong

[silvamuppet]

the Bailey machine to hold on.

You reckon?
After the stunt he pulled at the last general election??? I think if he gets back in he'll only do it on personal votes. (which in fairness he seems to have and he spends big). I can't see any FGers voting for him.

Are FG even letting him run under their banner???

[1983]

Relevant Dublin South Wards were being discussed in not so much detail here: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=37425

I'd say John Bailey will get another run in Dun Laoghaire as he still has the numbers, his daughter will be hard pushed to get on a ticket in the reduced Ballybrack as he'll need all the support. As for Glencullen I believe Neale Richmond is touted to run there alongside Tom Joyce.

A lot of FG names being brandied about for Stillorgan, no definites yet.

Are there any truth to the runours that Ciaran Fallon (GP) is looking to move to the new SEIC Ward? Any sitting Councillors due to retire? The new Boundaries have split the Wards neatly on constituency lines. Will the PDs run many/any candidates, I'm sure Victor Boyhan & Barry Saul will knock about but will they have any effect?

[KATHY]

Dundrum will be fiercely competitive next time out as they have now dropped one from six to five, so someone has to go. I have heard rumours that Fallon intends to move to DCC, but based on the assumption that he intends to stick around, of the six, I would reckon possible casualties could be either Matthews (FF) or Hand (FG), as the rest would currently seem to be safe enough.

[Rebelman]

Dun Laoghaire 3 FG MCCs sitting on only 2 quotas. the Bailey machine to hold on. Who the 2nd FG.? Boyd Barrett of Profit b4 people to win. Labour JDB to hold on. FF to win 2 or will the Greens hold on.

As the third FG seat was a pd seat last time the revised share of vote was:

FG 40.4%
FF 21.7%
LAB 20.3%
GREEN 9.8%
SWP 7.8%


boyd barrett will take a seat for pbp at the expense of the greens, FG will take 2, FF will take 1 and labour will take 1, last seat will be a fight between fg, ff and greens with the winner being either ff or fg depending on who they select, i think the greens can be written off

[Pidge]

As the third FG seat was a pd seat last time the revised share of vote was:

FG 40.4%
FF 21.7%
LAB 20.3%
GREEN 9.8%
SWP 7.8%
boyd barrett will take a seat for pbp at the expense of the greens, FG will take 2, FF will take 1 and labour will take 1, last seat will be a fight between fg, ff and greens with the winner being either ff or fg depending on who they select, i think the greens can be written off

I imagine that Boyd Barret will take a seat, alright, but I'd say that FG will lose out. Looking at the tallies from the last general election, there was a vote of under 25% for FG in Dún Laoighaire, and that was with three candidates, two of whom were sitting councillors in the Dún Laoighaire ward. I just can't see FG getting that high a vote in the ward.

[1983]

Fine Gael will struggle to hold 3 but Bailey & Mitchell-O'Connor both have pretty solid personal votes so that might be an asset. Bailey will be in for a rough ride at any convention.

Hand will need to do much better then '04 to hold on but O'Leary should see his vote increase, did Culhane's vote plateau in '04?

Knew Kennedy was sniffing round in Stillorgan but has he declared, will he realistically get on the ticket let alone get elected?

[DL2FG]

My take, 1 year off:

Ballybrack.
2 safe Labour seats - the ward is now more working class after the boundary review
1 safe FF seat
1 safe FG seat
The last seat will be between the 2nd FG candidate and Kivlihan of the Greens if he doesn't move to Glencullen. It is a tough call between Donal Marren and Maria Bailey as to which is the weaker - probably Maria.

Dun Laoghaire
1 safe FF seat - is Cormac Devlin still running as he seems only half committed these days?
2 safe FG seats - Bailey plus one other
Richard Boyd Barrett will get elected
After that it will be a battle between the 3rd FG candidate, Labour and The Greens for the last 2 seats.

Blackrock
Niamh Bhreathnach (Lab) and Marie Baker (FG) safe.
Barry Conway safe for FF unless an Andrews runs
Childers for the Greens should fight off Victor Boyhan of the PDs for the last seat

Stillorgan
Likley 1 FF, 1 FG, I Ind and 1 Green, although the PDs could challenge here as the addition of Foxrock will help them

Dundrum
Reduces from 6 seats to 5. Likley loser is Pat Hand (FG), even if Kieran Fallon opts for Dublin City Council

Sandyford
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab safe. Last seat between FF and the Greens.

Overall prediction
FF 7, FG 8, Lab 6, GP 5, Ind 2

[1983]

Just got invited to join the below, looks like Tom will have company in Glencullen

Have any Conventions been held yet?

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=20603142308

[Rocko]

Who are the FF candidates in Blackrock? Is anyone going to run with / against Conway?