Not sure about Boyd Barrett in DL, the tide has gone out for the baths, I still think a lot of folks got a shock at how close he went to taking a seat in the G.E. Not sure what the Baileys will do, John still seems to be sulking, although he may just be recovering from his G.E spending.
If engineers were wrong as often as economists, would anyone fly aeroplanes?
Would Boyd Barrett have a craic at Europe - he's very local but now that he's seen the support thats out there he may consider it.
PS - will an Andrews run in Blackrock against Conway or do they have new blood?
Blackrock 4
Barry Conway & Liam Dockery or Fred Gilligan to contest for FF, Conway will hold, however with Childers retiring a second FF seat is now on the cards. Will Michael Pigeon go for the Greens? FG & Lab will remain unchanged.
Dun Laoghaire 6
Cormac Devlin & Peter O’Brien (Hanafin’s PA) will probably contest for FF, Devlin is very strong in Sallynoggin & Mountown and will hold, O’Brien would be strong in Glasthule, Sandycove and Dalkey - he’ll be in with a fair chance on a good day. Boyd-Barrett to take the sole Labour seat – they’ve a totally non-existent ticket. Bailey & MOC will hold for FG, I've heard talk of "a Regan" running, they would be in with a chance. The last two seats will be a tossup between the “Regan Candidate” / O’Higgins (FG) / Ireland (GP) and O’Brien (FF). Darragh Burton for SF should make a good showing but I can’t see him getting ahead of Boyd-Barrett.
Ballybrack 5
O’Callaghan & Smith should hold for Labour, Marren will hold for Fine Gael. The last two seats will be a tossup between the rest.
Maria Bailey (FG) has very little profile outside of Killiney and will be under pressure. Gareth Crowe (Andrews PA) and Luke Martin (local publican) have been nominated for FF (Crowe would be strong in Cabinteely with Martin very strong in Ballybrack and Loughlinstown). Others being Tom Kivlehan for the Greens, Eoin O’Broin for SF and finally Hughie Lewis (SWP, PBF, SOS, Ballybrack 3 etc). No PD candidate on the horizon.
Louise Cosgrave has decided to run again in Stillorgan for FG
Originally Posted by Maximus
Maximus
There is a strong C of I vote in Blackrock which split last time between Childers, Willie Dockrell, who gets that vote now?
Dun Laoghaire: Agree with you on Dun Laoghaire: 2 FG, 1 FF, RBB and perm any 2 from a host of others.
Ballybrack 5 seats, 3 parties on 1.5 quotas or there abouts. It all depends on candidate selection. Rumours of 3 FG wold risk their 2nd seat. FF got only 1 last tiem-likely 1 this time, Labour lucky to hold on to 2. Kivlehan has suffered from carve up. If Greens tried to cook the books they failed. His chances of election in a 5 seater are greatly diminished. 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, rest is unknowable. MB was strong for a first timer in every box last time. A possible poll topper!!!
Glencullen -rumours of another Bailey running in the new 4 seater.
Stillorgan-FF to take 2 of 4 here
No chance of another Bailey getting into Glencullen - neither Fine Gael HQ or the old Dublin South constituency membership (85% of convention voters if not more) would allow it. All seems settled for a Joyce/Richmond ticket in a relatively balanced push for 2. Other Bailey running is John's nephew Simon Harris in Greystones
No real FG names in Stillorgan so far unless Cosgrave rumours are true, YFG's John Kennedy may get a run or if Cosgrave doesn't go then O'Leary could move. Either way it's gifting FF a potential 2 seats as Labour are sub-par in this area. O'Malley will run someone in her stead, most likely Saul but he showed last time he simply isn't up for it.
I like the look of Barry Ward to shake things up for Fine Gael in Blackrock, potentially very strong & mixes well with the affable if less sharp Baker
Disagree, local people know Saul...... he has a strong chance.......... lost seat last time, but is known by locals since.
Blackrock - Conway will hold, but FF will need a better second candidate than Gilligan or dockery as both very very weak candidates. Boylan will win also... worked very hard.
Looks like the following have been nominated by FF units todate. Nominations close tomorrow at 5pm.
Blackrock
Cllr Barry Conway
Liam Dockery
Fred Gilligan
Dun Laoghaire
Cllr Cormac Devlin
Peter O'Brien
Ballybrack
Cllr Gareth Crowe
Luke Martin
Larry Lohan
Marie Baker is also C of I -- I reckon herself and Willie Dockrell took the bulk of the C of I vote -- Willie probably more
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