Dublin Mid-West 2012 Elections

[seamasdefaoite]

Ok so its years off but here goes a discussion on it anyway.

I decided to start this because of a disagreement I had with Baldur on what the Greens in Government would do to their vote.

I believe that the Greens lefty transfers would dry up and leave them without a seat here in Mid-West. FF will have a much tighter voting pact in 2012 to ensure that Fitzgerald doesnt get in when Harney bows out. That way, FF wont send significant Transfers Gogarty's way that would compensate for the loss of his Lefty transfers. If Tuffy can beat him by 70-80 more votes on the first count then he would be in serious trouble.

In this situation the Result would be Something like this

Curran FF
Fitzgerald FG
Tuffy Lab
Moriarty(?)FF

Gogarty Grn
Spain SF
McGaughey(?) PD
Kenny PBP
Finnegan WP

[stevededalus]

I reckon Tuffy will resign in order to leave space for Seamus to run on the Labour ticket

[unaligned]

It is a long way off but it will be an interesting constituency. Hard to imagine FF not brining in a second seat next time out but who knows? I don't think either Tuffy or Gogarty would be stupid enough to consider themselves 'safe' and it will probably be an interesting fight. I would like to see Fitzgerald take a seat next time out and I'm told she is working hard in the constituency.

[seamasdefaoite]

I reckon Tuffy will resign in order to leave space for Seamus to run on the Labour ticket

age restrictions and what not prevent that from happening

Joanna is a new Deputy, if we continue to work hard she'll hold the seat for many years to come

[libertarian-right]

please look back at this viewtopic.php?t=21717


1st count

Quota 7468

Curran 8650
Finnegan 366
Fitzgerald 4480
Gogarty 4043
Harney 4663
Keating 2701
O'Kenny 1058
Mc Hale 170
Moriarty 3671
Spain 3462
Tuffy 4075

I reckon it will be

1. Curran FF
2. Fitzgerald FG
3. Gogarty Greens
4. Tuffy Lab

With moriarty close and if keating runs again he will be up there. Remember keating (ind) gave Gogarty a huge boost in transfers, I believe he is more safe then Tuffy for example

[libertarian-right]

also last count

Curran 8650
Gogarty 7920
Harney 7786
Tuffy 6672

All the above elected

Fitzgerald 5664 - loses out

[croppyboy]

Ok so its years off but here goes a discussion on it anyway.

I decided to start this because of a disagreement I had with Baldur on what the Greens in Government would do to their vote.

I believe that the Greens lefty transfers would dry up and leave them without a seat here in Mid-West. FF will have a much tighter voting pact in 2012 to ensure that Fitzgerald doesnt get in when Harney bows out. That way, FF wont send significant Transfers Gogarty's way that would compensate for the loss of his Lefty transfers. If Tuffy can beat him by 70-80 more votes on the first count then he would be in serious trouble.

In this situation the Result would be Something like this

Curran FF
Fitzgerald FG
Tuffy Lab
Moriarty(?)FF

Gogarty Grn
Spain SF
McGaughey(?) PD
Kenny PBP
Finnegan WP

I couldn't see Moriarty going again, it was a vanity project supported by his friend and fellow kerry man John O'Donohue, more likely Trevor Gilligan to be Curran running mate. Curran an excellent TD by all accounts. May be tipped for promotion under Cowen too..

[Tony B]

Also will Fitzgerald run in Mid West again?

[seamasdefaoite]

Ok so its years off but here goes a discussion on it anyway.

I decided to start this because of a disagreement I had with Baldur on what the Greens in Government would do to their vote.

I believe that the Greens lefty transfers would dry up and leave them without a seat here in Mid-West. FF will have a much tighter voting pact in 2012 to ensure that Fitzgerald doesnt get in when Harney bows out. That way, FF wont send significant Transfers Gogarty's way that would compensate for the loss of his Lefty transfers. If Tuffy can beat him by 70-80 more votes on the first count then he would be in serious trouble.

In this situation the Result would be Something like this

Curran FF
Fitzgerald FG
Tuffy Lab
Moriarty(?)FF

Gogarty Grn
Spain SF
McGaughey(?) PD
Kenny PBP
Finnegan WP

I couldn't see Moriarty going again, it was a vanity project supported by his friend and fellow kerry man John O'Donohue, more likely Trevor Gilligan to be Curran running mate. Curran an excellent TD by all accounts. May be tipped for promotion under Cowen too..

Curran wont let Gilligan run and I would expect him to be shafted by the FF machine in the Locals (although I think trevor is the second best clondalkin councillor after Robert Dowds). More than likely Moriarty.

Fitzgerald will almost assuredly run here in DMW, with the blanket bomb of media and money, she's here to stay

[hiding behind a poster]

Also will Fitzgerald run in Mid West again?

Why wouldn't she?