Dublin Mid-West 2012 Elections

[drjimryan]

yep...must agree.....

when you watch her votes at a count...you quickly realise that her 2´s and 3´s go everywhere..........

but....unless ff run a credible woamn with minister currann...fitzy will more than most benefit....

[Cormocodran]

I'd say harneys votes might spread a little more evenly than that - FF/FG and Lab a bit... even the odd green. Just not to SF. FG & FF will be the winners there.

Her vote is as much about integrity and her personality, rather than a core PD belief.

Correct - my own parents, die hard FFs (from the 'If in doubt, leave them out' wing), voted for Harney last time on the basis they didn't want her to lose her seat - her votes aren't votes for the PDs as a party, there for her as a person, and as such I'd say her seat is almost certain to fall to Fitzgerald.

She has a definate FPV advantage over the second FFer (bar evening the vote between Curran and his runner), and IIRC Curran-Moriarty transfers were lacklustre by FFs Standards, at about 50% - she has transfer problems herself though, work on that and it's almost certainly a FG gain.