View Poll Results: What will be the result (your prediction, not intention) of the referendum on the 8th will be

Voters
203. You must be logged in to vote on this poll. Please login or register.
  • The result will be 'yes'.

    117 57.64%
  • The result will be 'no'.

    86 42.36%
Register to Comment
Page 1 of 153 1231151101 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 1522
Like Tree845Likes
  1. #1
    arsenal arsenal is offline

    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    223

    Predict The Referendum Result

    This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

    I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

    The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

    The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

    The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  2. #2
    flavirostris flavirostris is offline
    flavirostris's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    26,614

    I'll go for the same as the Brexit result. 52% No and 48% Yes.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  3. #3
    President Bartlet President Bartlet is offline
    President Bartlet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    9,907

    I'll go 53% No 47% Yes
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  4. #4
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
    Dame_Enda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    46,143

    I think a yes vote but the polls have been a bit unstable so I think it could be close. I think younger men will be a key swing vote. It won't be like the Marriage Referendum in the size of the lead. I expect all the Dublin constituencies to vote yes, along with the Cork city, Galway city and Limerick city constituencies. I think though that while the margins will be different, the ones where the marriage referendum were close are a good guide to where the result will be close or even "no". I think Waterford will be close and could go narrowly against. Donegal will be "no", as well Roscommon-South Leitrim. I think Wexford will be a yes thanks partly to growing numbers of Dubliners in the north of the county. Cavan–Monaghan, Mayo, Galway East and Longford-Westmeath will be No. Carlow-Kilkenny will be close, as will Clare, Cork NW, Cork SW, Laois Offaly, Kerry NW Limerick.

    On balance then a "yes" vote in the 50-somethings.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 9th May 2018 at 07:06 PM. Reason: changed my mind on numbers
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  5. #5
    mac tíre mac tíre is offline
    mac tíre's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    7,366

    55% Yes. 45% No. Turnout 63%
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  6. #6
    slysnara slysnara is offline
    slysnara's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    1,392

    Not much point in predicting until after the televised debates.

    And the most recent polls only go as far as end of April.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  7. #7
    Sync Sync is offline
    Sync's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    45,854

    Godammit Arsenal. I was going to go 53-47. Uh. 54-46. Yes. Maybe tighter if No focuses on the 3 month thing rather than the principle itself.
    Last edited by Sync; 9th May 2018 at 06:28 PM.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  8. #8
    Deadlock Deadlock is offline

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    6,353

    Quote Originally Posted by arsenal View Post
    This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

    I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

    The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

    The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

    The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.
    I think that's a very reasonable analysis. I'd disagree slightly - I think the margin will be closer to 55% Repeal-45% Retain on a slightly higher turnout figure - maybe 60%-65%. My own guess is Kildare South and Meath East will Repeal.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  9. #9
    Sailor Sailor is offline

    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    62,270

    Yes 55%, No 45%. Turnout under 60% as many will stay at home because, while they support Repeal, they do not agree with abortion on demand.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  10. #10
    stopdoingstuff stopdoingstuff is offline
    stopdoingstuff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    22,867

    50.5-49.5, No side wins. Lesbian child haters immediately morph into demons and spew vaginal lava on the innocent.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

Page 1 of 153 1231151101 ... LastLast
Sign in to CommentRegister to Comment