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  1. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruserious View Post


    From Adrian Kavanagh.
    If those figures came true (and Kavanagh's usually don't), it'd be an FG government, with a nice job apiece for Labour, the Greens, the SDs and a couple of Indos. And Sean O'Fearghail could settle right back into the Ceann Comhairle's seat.
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  2. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Unfortunately, pretty much everyone in the country remembers that Frankfurt got its way

    Sad, but there you go. This is a salutary lesson about selling out your remaining principles at the stroke of a pen. But, shewer, isn't that what you tend to do in elections? Lie to your voters?
    No, basic maths got its way. I've never heard anyone say that you lie to your voters during elections, so what exactly is your second point?
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  3. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    Adrian Kavanagh's model isn't great when it comes to Labour. They're in territory where local variation counts for a lot. Who might survive?

    Kelly could hold on in Tipp. He's been the only Labour TD worth his salt in this Dáil. Howlin is probably bullet proof in Wexford. Sherlock would need a serious drop to lose out in Cork East. Brendan Ryan would still be in with a strong shout in Dublin Fingal. On the flip side I wouldn't be surprised to see Willie Penrose retire while Jan O'Sullivan and Joan Burton are probably toast.

    Any other possibilities? Jack O'Connor in Wicklow? His beard would not be out of place in the Happy Pear...

    I'm going for four seats for them.
    On these figures FG would probably take a second seat in Fingal, so Ryan would need to hang on to absolutely everything he's got to knock out either the Shinner or Daly. Likewise in Cork East, Sherlock would be under serious pressure from FG, though the ongoing Whitehall farce that is SF in that constituency could see him hold on. I think if Burton runs, she survives - even with Varadkar as Taoiseach, I'm not sure there's quite a second FG seat in Dublin West, so if she polls a decent first preference and gets ahead of Noone (if it is Noone), then at some point a bucketload of FG votes will come her way. Realistically if there weren't two seats for SF and the anti-everythings in 2016 there, there aren't now - meaning that either SF don't pick up a high profile target, or (more likely in my view), Coppinger loses out.
    Last edited by hiding behind a poster; 7th December 2017 at 04:10 PM.
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  4. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Basically, each party is assigned a factor for each constituency based on their share of the national vote at the GE. So, taking Howlin as an example - Labour scored 6.8% at the last GE, and Howlin polled 14.2% - roughly speaking that gives labour a factor of 2 in Wexford. Now if labour are polling at 4%, that drops Howlin to an FPV of 8%, roughly speaking (i don't have the spreadsheet open right now), which is nowhere near a quota, and no-one to get transfers off either.

    And who doesn't like a nice graph? They're so much more eloquent than any amount of dissembling party shilling
    Cold, hard, numbers. Ya gotta love them.
    The main problem with that calculation is that it doesn't work. Particularly in constituencies where a party is strong. A classic example is Dun Laoghaire, where similar models used by Kavanagh had Labour vaulting into nearly 3-seat territory in 2011, when in the end they still only won one seat.
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  5. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    I see the rationale but I still think the local element is underestimated, particularly where there is a "big name" in the mix. Take Howlin for example. His FPV actually went up in 2016 to 14.8% from 14.6% in 2011 whereas Labour's national FPV dropped from 19.4% to 6.6%. Therefore the assumption you've made would seem to run counter to what has actually happened in the past.
    In 2011 he had a running mate, and there was some attempt at vote management. In 2016 he hadn't, and there wasn't. The Labour vote went from 20% to 15%, though that does show your point about the national trend not being proportionate in constituencies where a small party has a base.
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  6. #276
    kbcav kbcav is offline

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    Anyone can put up regional figures as i cant access because of paywall particularly Dublin
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  7. #277
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    Quote Originally Posted by carlovian View Post
    Rogue poll.

    How are Labour as high as 4%.

    Alan Kelly sharpens knife.
    No he doesn't. All of last week Kelly was the face of Labour, to zero discernable effect. Labour TDs will have noticed that. Anyway Labour's leader will not be judged by his ability to make media noise in this term. Labour have an infrastructure in a good 3/4s of Dail constituencies, which needs renovation and rebuilding with the next locals in mind. Howlin knows how to do that, there's no evidence Kelly does.
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  8. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by carlovian View Post
    Howlin on 19% popularity.

    Thats poor.
    It's not popularity, it's approval of his performance as leader. Different thing. After the 19%, I'd say there's a vast amount of don't knows.
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  9. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Volatire View Post

    God, there was so many of them back then.
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  10. #280
    Dedogs Dedogs is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breanainn View Post
    FG 36% (+5)
    FG 25% (-4)
    SF 19% (-)
    Ind 11% (-)
    Lab 4% (-)
    Greens 3% (-)
    Soc Dems 1% (-1)
    Sol-PBP 1% (-1)
    hes there thinking i should of sacked the ************************ months ago....
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