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  1. #201
    hammer hammer is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    The really heartening thing about this poll, is that Labour are rubber ducked
    Burton will have to be leader again as she will be the only TD they have..
    They have to recover. They are fighting for the same voters as SF.

    Surely their manifesto will appeal to some.
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  2. #202
    brughahaha brughahaha is offline

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    A poll taken during a period of national frenzy on Monday and Tuesday .....In thre cold light of day Leos strategy not looking too smart ...even Blueshirt hack No. 1 starting to wonder at the point of our strategy

    This poll will prove to be a blip

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/i...bles-1.3317855
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  3. #203
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    Adrian Kavanagh's? That has them holding on 44, not dropping to 37...
    Mine, ya loon.
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  4. #204
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammer View Post
    They have to recover. They are fighting for the same voters as SF.

    Surely their manifesto will appeal to some.
    Unfortunately, pretty much everyone in the country remembers that Frankfurt got its way

    Sad, but there you go. This is a salutary lesson about selling out your remaining principles at the stroke of a pen. But, shewer, isn't that what you tend to do in elections? Lie to your voters?
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  5. #205
    statsman statsman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    There's a hint of a trend line beginning to emerge.
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  6. #206
    DaveM DaveM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    The really heartening thing about this poll, is that Labour are rubber ducked
    Burton will have to be leader again as she will be the only TD they have..
    Adrian Kavanagh's model isn't great when it comes to Labour. They're in territory where local variation counts for a lot. Who might survive?

    Kelly could hold on in Tipp. He's been the only Labour TD worth his salt in this Dáil. Howlin is probably bullet proof in Wexford. Sherlock would need a serious drop to lose out in Cork East. Brendan Ryan would still be in with a strong shout in Dublin Fingal. On the flip side I wouldn't be surprised to see Willie Penrose retire while Jan O'Sullivan and Joan Burton are probably toast.

    Any other possibilities? Jack O'Connor in Wicklow? His beard would not be out of place in the Happy Pear...

    I'm going for four seats for them.
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  7. #207
    DaveM DaveM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Mine, ya loon.
    Based on the trends? Gotcha. What FPV shares are you working off?

    I do like a nice graph by the way...
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  8. #208
    statsman statsman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    Adrian Kavanagh's model isn't great when it comes to Labour. They're in territory where local variation counts for a lot. Who might survive?

    Kelly could hold on in Tipp. He's been the only Labour TD worth his salt in this Dáil. Howlin is probably bullet proof in Wexford. Sherlock would need a serious drop to lose out in Cork East. Brendan Ryan would still be in with a strong shout in Dublin Fingal. On the flip side I wouldn't be surprised to see Willie Penrose retire while Jan O'Sullivan and Joan Burton are probably toast.

    Any other possibilities? Jack O'Connor in Wicklow? His beard would not be out of place in the Happy Pear...

    I'm going for four seats for them.
    The SD team in Limerick are targeting the Lab seat, and Jan has been almost invisible on the ground for over a year now.
    Interestingly, FG are going with two candidates, a man and a woman, both senators, putting a serious squeeze on the Anyone But Willie vote.
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  9. #209
    DaveM DaveM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    The SD team in Limerick are targeting the Lab seat, and Jan has been almost invisible on the ground for over a year now.
    Interestingly, FG are going with two candidates, a man and a woman, both senators, putting a serious squeeze on the Anyone But Willie vote.
    A big problem for Labour is the absence of a new generation. They really could have done with a local election before any GE in the hope of some new faces gaining a profile.
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  10. #210
    statsman statsman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    A big problem for Labour is the absence of a new generation. They really could have done with a local election before any GE in the hope of some new faces gaining a profile.
    Yep. Penrose is likely to retire, Jan has given up, Joan B and Howlin are looking at their last GE, win or lose. If AK loses, that's that.
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