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  1. #191
    ruserious ruserious is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    One way or the other, only one government on offer.
    Ah ya. Once Gerry goes, FG will welcome SF into bed crumbs and all.
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  2. #192
    DaveM DaveM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Movement within constituents vis a vis performance in that constituency as opposed to national performance last time out.
    Plus, number of candidates run, vote management and so on.

    The real killer, is not so much SF taking seats off FF, but FF losing them to FG in tight spots. In a few places, when the polls were tighter, FF were on 2 seats, and FG one, and this has resulted in a swap in some of those places.

    The only people SF are taking seats off in this scenario is the lefties and Labour. That accounts for the differential.
    I can't see FF losing 7. Not even close. It would be an unprecedented statistical outlier if they did. They're at roughly the same %FPV as the last GE and at the last GE they had poor seat bonus due to their candidate strategy being designed for a lower share of the vote. FG on the other hand had a very good seat bonus. To do drastically worse on the basis of this stretches logic too much.
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  3. #193
    hammer hammer is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruserious View Post
    Ah ya. Once Gerry goes, FG will welcome SF into bed crumbs and all.
    SF IRA can stay in opposition until 3018

    Nobody wants them bar if FF are desperate.
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  4. #194
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    I can't see FF losing 7. Not even close. It would be an unprecedented statistical outlier if they did. They're at roughly the same %FPV as the last GE and at the last GE they had poor seat bonus due to their candidate strategy being designed for a lower share of the vote. FG on the other hand had a very good seat bonus. To do drastically worse on the basis of this stretches logic too much.
    And yet, the model says they do. Go figure.
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  5. #195
    hammer hammer is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruserious View Post


    From Adrian Kavanagh.
    Happy Christmas to all the Blueshirts / West Brits / Tory Lovers that frequent p.ie

    Also to all those that see a recovery.

    To all the doomsters and the angry few have a great one to. We would be lost without you.
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  6. #196
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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  7. #197
    publicrealm publicrealm is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    One way or the other, only one government on offer.
    A week is a long time in politics.

    I suspect that many people are surprised that Leo and Simon have apparently managed the Brexit business so well.

    Many (myself included) would be fearful that their blue tinge might lead to weakness when dealing with the mainland - that this has not happened is to FG's credit. Even John Bruton has been strong and forthright and that is a surprise to many.

    If FG continue in this vein then I believe they will see the benefits electorally. And vice versa - with knobs on.
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  8. #198
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    The really heartening thing about this poll, is that Labour are rubber ducked
    Burton will have to be leader again as she will be the only TD they have..
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  9. #199
    DaveM DaveM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    And yet, the model says they do. Go figure.
    Adrian Kavanagh's? That has them holding on 44, not dropping to 37...
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  10. #200
    hammer hammer is offline
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    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

    Leo most popular.

    Gerry going backwards.............
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