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  1. #1
    Bertie's Hat Bertie's Hat is offline
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    Dublin Central next GE

    This consistuency is expanding from 3 seats to 4

    Paschal and Mary Lou will be safe

    Last 2 seats:

    FF - Mary Fitzpatrick did disappointingly in 2014 Europeans. Last GE she came 3rd in 1st preferences but lost out on transfers.
    Was "gendermandered" last time, but no one else seems obvious for the ticket.

    Gary Gannon SD seems to have a good chance. Has built a profile up for himself, seems popular and came close last time out.

    Maureen O'Sullivan has probably had her day, her "Lazarus" moment in GE 16 when independents were at an all time high doesn't bode well for next time.

    I'm sure I saw a notice for a Joe Costello (Lab) "public meeting" recently, not a chance

    Seems like a place where you could run a second Shinner but there were a lot of left wing candidates splitting the vote last time and I don't think another SF TD will be elected in next GE

    Likewise I think Christy Burke's best chance and highest name recognition was last GE. Although he seems to be a strong local representative so could surprise

    So I think 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF and one SD (if he is still SD by then)

    Anyone else in the mix in Dublin Central?
    William "DJ" Gorman doesn't count...

    Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
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  2. #2
    Carlos Danger Carlos Danger is offline
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    Fidelma Healy-Eames might make a run for it.
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  3. #3
    Niall996 Niall996 is offline
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    Politics and elections is just a big game to some people. All fun and excitement! The state of the nation and the future of the population therein is just an inconvenient irrelevance to their great childish game pursued through early pubescent teenage isolation, through the their first readings of worn, discredited outdated books, thrilling social integration/dating third level 'socs,' political clubs and Junior Party gathering. They disgust me, whatever 'party' they cling to.
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  4. #4
    ger12 ger12 is offline
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    Pascal wasn't so safe last year.

    He got lucky with the redraw.
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  5. #5
    the secretary the secretary is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ger12 View Post
    Pascal wasn't so safe last year.

    He got lucky with the redraw.
    All the same, The original prediction made is likely to be the right one
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  6. #6
    Fullforward Fullforward is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ger12 View Post
    Pascal wasn't so safe last year.

    He got lucky with the redraw.
    Got elected on big Labour and FF transfers.
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  7. #7
    Northsideman Northsideman is offline
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    Joe Bleedin Costello? Do me a really big favour!

    That clown fooled the folks with his weekly picket at the Mater, what did he deliver? FA that's what, a total chancer who deservers his fat arse to be kicked again and again. He should fuk off back to supporting the thugs in Mountjoy,. Labour my arse he's a traitor.
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  8. #8
    edwin edwin is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullforward View Post
    Got elected on big Labour and FF transfers.
    Not really. He got less FF transfers than Maureen O'Sullivan and only marginally more than Christy Burke. The only person he really gained on from FF transfers was Gary Gannon.

    FF transferred almost 3 to 1 to 'left wing' candidates rather than FG. Not really the story you want to spin but those are the facts.
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  9. #9
    hollandia hollandia is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by edwin View Post
    Not really. He got less FF transfers than Maureen O'Sullivan and only marginally more than Christy Burke. The only person he really gained on from FF transfers was Gary Gannon.

    FF transferred almost 3 to 1 to 'left wing' candidates rather than FG. Not really the story you want to spin but those are the facts.
    FF transferred at 2.5:1 in favour of left wing candidates, assuming were classifying the sds as left wing. FF transfers were, 21.6% to Pascal, 23.7% to Maureen o Sullivan, 13% to Gerry Gannon and 19% to Christy Burke. Whether more would have went left wing to Mary Lou, we don't know as she was already elected by the elimination of ff. Labour transferred 998 votes or 42.5% to paschal, with the rest evenly distributed amongst the remaining candidates.

    I wouldn't say either set of transfers were massive in numbers terms, but lab to FG I would in proportional terms.
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  10. #10
    The Herren The Herren is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos Danger View Post
    Fidelma Healy-Eames might make a run for it.
    With a name like that she should keep on running.
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