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  1. #41
    arsenal arsenal is offline

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    Willie got there by the skin of his teeth on Bannon last time and was reluctant to run. The problem for Labour is they won't hold the seat without him, and they need every one they can get, party survival may be at stake. Fianna Fail have a second seat for the taking, assuming Troy can share some of his vote, say receive 17-18% instead of 21% of the vote. Last time even with a new candidate that no one knew they came close and with the likelihood of nearly all votes staying in Longford I think the FF candidate in Longford has to be favourite for the last seat. Mcfadden will run again to fullfill gender quota criteria for FG but she has no hope.
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  2. #42
    Observer Observer is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulp View Post
    Boxer in Athlone.
    Troy & Burke would expect to hold their Mullingar seats.
    Clarke for the final seat in Mullingar.

    Slightly interesting is a few commentaries by Penrose, Troy & Burke that Athlone should not get city status in current NPF process. Has been reported in local papers and may come back to the fore for an election.

    Which may drive more votes across party lines to local candidates in Athlone and hinterland. But unlikely to impact overall result.
    Troy, Burke, Moran (no-one else based in Athlone) and one of Flaherty or Carrigy (Longford will have fewer candidates to split the vote between and FF are not actively f*cking up their own campaign this time). Clarke is more articulate than Hogan but the publicity over bullying is not going to do SF any good. Penrose will run again, I imagine, and may hold his first preference vote but will probably lose.
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  3. #43
    midlander12 midlander12 is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulp View Post
    Boxer in Athlone.
    Troy & Burke would expect to hold their Mullingar seats.
    Clarke for the final seat in Mullingar.

    Slightly interesting is a few commentaries by Penrose, Troy & Burke that Athlone should not get city status in current NPF process. Has been reported in local papers and may come back to the fore for an election.

    Which may drive more votes across party lines to local candidates in Athlone and hinterland. But unlikely to impact overall result.
    I very much doubt Mullingar will get 3 seats again - it was a complete fluke last time. Clarke barely scraped the 6th seat in Mullingar-Kilbeggan with just over 900 votes in 2014. I've personally never heard of her until today. Her colleagues in the other 2 electoral areas (of whom one was Hogan) got 13% each. They have a very limited presence in Longford and no council seats there. If Penrose runs he would have a much better chance of picking up some Longford votes given his location in Ballinacargy, though I think the two Longford candidates will swamp out everyone else anyway.

    For the second time in a week SF have effectively sacked a candidate who came within 1000 votes of a seat last time (less than 700 in Hogan's case). Does intelligent life exist there at all?
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  4. #44
    midlander12 midlander12 is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Plebian View Post
    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/...-constituency/

    Things hotting up for Willie Penrose, no mention of whether he'll run or not, but the selection of a Mullingar based SF candidate spices it up for Willie, he could get elected on her transfers and vice-versa even though there'd be no love lost between Labour and SF voters. Votes don't swim or walk too far.
    Did Hogan even stand I wonder? Was the convention contested?
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  5. #45
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Did Hogan even stand I wonder? Was the convention contested?
    There's a footnote saying that it wasn't contested. They only had 3 councillors in Westmeath and I think Hogan might have left or half left
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