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  1. #21
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    I agree there will be a Longford seat - both candidates seem a bit low-profile but one of them will get it. I would have thought FF were in with a better shot. Surely Bannon is gone?

    Obviously one of the Westmeath TD's will lose out - I'm not certain Penrose will retire, and if he doesn't I would think his chances of holding on are about 50/50. Burke and Troy are safe, leaving the last seat between Penrose (if he runs), Boxer and Hogan (again if he runs). Hogan's falling out with the party will surely have damaged him, although he has been knocking on the door here for a decade, but if they try to run someone I would not rate their chances at all.

    So on balance FF 2, FG 1 Lab 1 if Penrose runs, and FF 2, FG 1 and Boxer otherwise.
    I wonder could McFadden FG or ORourke FF feature? Would be very cruel on Boxer if ORourke family did for hm again!
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  2. #22
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamsonS View Post
    I wonder could McFadden FG or ORourke FF feature? Would be very cruel on Boxer if ORourke family did for hm again!
    No idea. McFadden melted away the last time. Is O'Rourke even running?
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  3. #23
    Longford1 Longford1 is offline

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    does anyone think boxer moran might be in trouble
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  4. #24
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Longford1 View Post
    does anyone think boxer moran might be in trouble
    I imagine the last seat will be between him, SF and Penrose if he runs. Obviously he will be under a lot less pressure if Penrose doesn't run or if SF run someone other than Hogan.
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  5. #25
    the secretary the secretary is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    I imagine the last seat will be between him, SF and Penrose if he runs. Obviously he will be under a lot less pressure if Penrose doesn't run or if SF run someone other than Hogan.
    So who will win the first 3 seats?
    2 of those you mentioned that would be fighting for the last are already sitting TDs.
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  6. #26
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by the secretary View Post
    So who will win the first 3 seats?
    2 of those you mentioned that would be fighting for the last are already sitting TDs.
    Bourke FG and Troy FF, and one of the Longford candidates (most likely the FFer).
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  7. #27
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longford1 View Post
    does anyone think boxer moran might be in trouble
    Hopefully.
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  8. #28
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    I imagine the last seat will be between him, SF and Penrose if he runs. Obviously he will be under a lot less pressure if Penrose doesn't run or if SF run someone other than Hogan.
    It's fairly simple, the Athlone area has no other candidate with the high profile of Boxer and that part of the constituency has more than enough clout to elect a TD. I think he's a shoo in, while he's a bit of an eejit he nevertheless has managed to make a start on flood defences and has garnered plenty of new publicity since he got into Govt.
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  9. #29
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Plebian View Post
    It's fairly simple, the Athlone area has no other candidate with the high profile of Boxer and that part of the constituency has more than enough clout to elect a TD. I think he's a shoo in, while he's a bit of an eejit he nevertheless has managed to make a start on flood defences and has garnered plenty of new publicity since he got into Govt.
    Is Hogan running for SF this time - hasn't he accused them of bullying or something?
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  10. #30
    the secretary the secretary is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Is Hogan running for SF this time - hasn't he accused them of bullying or something?
    Bogtrotter is also a shinner and i think is from that neck of the woods and said a few months ago that Hogan would be their candidate.
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