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  1. #11
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by ergo2 View Post
    Re Naoise Ó'Muirí - were you not a fan of his at last GE?

    As for "Heney not TD material" ? why
    He/She probably turned on O Muiri after his disastrous showing in last year's General Election. He barely made back his expenses and finished more than 6000 votes behind Richard Bruton. It can be disappointing when your heroes fail to live up to expectations.

    As for Heney, she has attempted to get elected to the Dail on a few occasions now and has been continously bested by Haughey and even Ivor - so the conclusion that she is not TD material is entirely natural.

    Do people actually view Naoise and Deidre as credible National Politicians?
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  2. #12
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeaceGoalie View Post
    The PBP chaps must be good for a seat. I'd imagine Renua are toast. Interesting you think O'Riordan is a force. Labour are not liked
    Agree I think Lyons is safe in the locals and Renua are a zombified non-entity of a party.

    But I would say Horgan is safe in Clontarf as O'Riordan got about half his votes out of the Clontarf LEA where she will be running. It is the rest of the Bay North constituency where Labour really have a problem. Ironically it is with the parts like Donaghmede, Coolock etc in which they used to be incredibly strong (as a supposed Worker's party with a large blue collar base) where they are in serious trouble.
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  3. #13
    runwiththewind runwiththewind is offline

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    Averil Power will top the polls. Ha, ha, youre funny. Wasn't she kicked out on her arse last time and demanded a recount.
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  4. #14
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by runwiththewind View Post
    Averil Power will top the polls. Ha, ha, youre funny. Wasn't she kicked out on her arse last time and demanded a recount.
    To be fair there is a massive difference between running as candidate in a General Election in a highly competitive 5 seater and running in non-competive local election in an 8 seater LEA. Power would easily be elected in that scenerio especially if she found herself back in the fold of one of the old gang political parties. She came pretty close to getting elected in 2009 when the FF vote was on the floor, did respectable numbers in the GE in 2011 with FF's vote take being even worse than two years previously and came pretty close again in 2016 despite being a newly minted independent in a aforementioned "group of death" constituency.

    Though, to be honest I feel Fingal CoCo would be a little too small fry for the ex-Senator from Bayside. It wouldn't be as lucrative as her current Asthma society gig.
    Last edited by Degeneration X; 14th June 2017 at 06:55 PM. Reason: typo
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  5. #15
    Fullforward Fullforward is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by nwofg1 View Post
    Beaumont/Donaghmede
    9 Seats
    Larry O'Toole SF......This veteran will hold his seat if he wants it.
    Tom Brabazon FF..... This guy knocking on the door , well gotten, solid performer will easily retain his seat.
    John Lyons PBP...... the myth of these protesters is over, with water fading, this guy is done, anybody can mouth off.
    Micheál MacDonncha SF.... Despite his course manner on the door, he will get over on SF brand
    Edel Moran SF.... took over the seat, unless she gets huge help from Mitchell she is done.
    Declan Flanagan FG... Despite being FG this guy is very popular and been around long time he will survive FG ambush
    Michael O'Brien AAA.. This guy is done, one trick merchant sooner these small parties go the better
    Alison Gilliland LAB... has to get help form O'Riordan to fight off the treat of McDowell.
    Paddy Bourke IND... Will stay on with help of Broughan and been a hard grafter in his area.
    Sinn Fein had almost 35% of the vote there in the last Election and well over 7,000 first preference votes where the quota was 2,182 their three seats are safe.
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  6. #16
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullforward View Post
    Sinn Fein had almost 35% of the vote there in the last Election and well over 7,000 first preference votes where the quota was 2,182 their three seats are safe.
    Agreed Sinn Fein look very solid here and should make in-roads into the AAA/Solidarity vote if the vote collapse that is being signaled in the Opinion Polls is to manifest itself. Not that Opinion Polls are too reliable these days.

    It is actually remarkable in Beaumont-Donaghmede that the Old Gang only have 3 seats out of a possible 9. i.e SF are bigger than FF, FG and Lab combined in terms of total representation in DCC. SF might take 4 assuming the boundaries for the LEA remain the same.
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  7. #17
    Fullforward Fullforward is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Degeneration X View Post
    Agreed Sinn Fein look very solid here and should make in-roads into the AAA/Solidarity vote if the vote collapse that is being signaled in the Opinion Polls is to manifest itself. Not that Opinion Polls are too reliable these days.

    It is actually remarkable in Beaumont-Donaghmede that the Old Gang only have 3 seats out of a possible 9. i.e SF are bigger than FF, FG and Lab combined in terms of total representation in DCC. SF might take 4 assuming the boundaries for the LEA remain the same.
    Look at the locals in Drimnagh / Ballyfermot which was the old stomping ground of Jim and Gay Mitchel of Fine Gael and FF's Mulcahy and Ardagh Families.

    There are six seats there, Sinn Fein have two, Fine Gael have none and Fianna Fail sneaked the last seat on FG transfers! Changed times indeed!
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  8. #18
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullforward View Post
    Look at the locals in Drimnagh / Ballyfermot which was the old stomping ground of Jim and Gay Mitchel of Fine Gael and FF's Mulcahy and Ardagh Families.

    There are six seats there, Sinn Fein have two, Fine Gael have none and Fianna Fail sneaked the last seat on FG transfers! Changed times indeed!
    True times have changed the Swords LEA in Fingal is another 9 seater where FG have no councillors on Fingal CoCo, now that I think of it.
    FG are now seen as an anti-worker party by many Dubs. Predictable that in 2011 they were the biggest party in all socio-economic groups but now after several years of austerity only the AB voters will touch them.
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  9. #19
    Breanainn Breanainn is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by nwofg1 View Post
    Looking ahead to the locals in 2019 in Dublin Bay North i would like to look at the cast of Characters that will make this ensemble piece fascinating viewing. I will look at the three areas that will be contesting the elections, who could possibly run who has a chance , who is wasting there time.

    Clontarf.
    Six Seats
    Damien O' Farrell IND......... Despite being a yes to Mcgrath, the same Mcgrath who sold out people he will survive
    Sean Paul Mahon FF...........If he gets to run in this area , with help of Haughey he should hold his seat.
    Deirdre Heney FF...........Not TD material but solid figher at this level, will hold her seat.
    Naoise O Muiri FG..........On sticky ground, lightweight, boy from galway looking to hold off his own party.
    Jane Horgan Jones Lab.........Will need all O'Riordans help holding on to her seat.
    Ciaran O'Moore SF.......... This guy is the Invisible Man, taken the crown of O'Muiri, unknown

    Contenders .
    Gerry Breen FG..... ex Councillor who went looking to be a TD in Ballymun, now looking to take O'Muiri's seat.
    Aoibhinn Tormley FG... Watch this space , she will wipe the floor with Breen and O'Muiri Future TD
    The rest of the people who ran in last election have no chance.

    Beaumont/Donaghmede
    9 Seats
    Larry O'Toole SF......This veteran will hold his seat if he wants it.
    Tom Brabazon FF..... This guy knocking on the door , well gotten, solid performer will easily retain his seat.
    John Lyons PBP...... the myth of these protesters is over, with water fading, this guy is done, anybody can mouth off.
    Micheál MacDonncha SF.... Despite his course manner on the door, he will get over on SF brand
    Edel Moran SF.... took over the seat, unless she gets huge help from Mitchell she is done.
    Declan Flanagan FG... Despite being FG this guy is very popular and been around long time he will survive FG ambush
    Michael O'Brien AAA.. This guy is done, one trick merchant sooner these small parties go the better
    Alison Gilliland LAB... has to get help form O'Riordan to fight off the treat of McDowell.
    Paddy Bourke IND... Will stay on with help of Broughan and been a hard grafter in his area.

    The Contenders...
    Pat Crimmins FG.... Ex Councillor who abandoned the people of Donaghmede now desperate to get back, no chance
    Ciaran Byrne FG..... Party Hack, who is trying to go again, has no chance.
    Daryl Barron FF...... Rising star in FF will push hard for a seat
    Brian McDowell LAB.. Ex Councillor will want his seat back will target Gilliland.
    Kilian Forde IND... Surprise entry may just upset things in SF.

    Howth/Malahide
    8 Seats
    Cian O'Callaghan IND.. will take a seat reagrdless if he moves to FG, Future TD
    Eoghan O'Brien FF...... Will easily take a seat , FF are building a head of steam in this ward.
    Daire Ni Laoi SF..... A mystery , has she been seen since she won the election?, is she a real person? still safe thou
    Jimmy Guerin IND.... Alas this guy is done, one trick pony, sitting duck
    Anthony Lavin FG.... A waste of space but will get elected on FG brand in Malahide.
    David Healy Greens... Hopefully this guy will be gone for good, pointless party now.
    Brian McDonagh LAB.. Solid worker, well gotten will hold his seat.
    Keith Redmond IND.... Any way wind blows, two bit chump he is finished.

    The Contenders.....
    Averil Power IND/FG... If she runs she tops the polls end of story, a star already.
    Ailleen Woods FF..... Will take a seat, last time unlucky but FF on the march.
    Stephanie Regan FG/IND... Regardless to what jersey she wears no chance we have all seen through her.
    Terence Flanagan Renua.... If he runs he will take a seat,


    Awaiting comments and views
    Cian O'Callaghan's in the Soc Dems.
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  10. #20
    Degeneration X Degeneration X is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breanainn View Post
    Cian O'Callaghan's in the Soc Dems.
    Yes he is.

    But he ran as an independent in the last locals and only joined the SD's before the last GE.

    He will coast home in the next locals and may succeed to Tommy Broughan's seat to the Dail when the old man steps aside.
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