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  1. #1
    ShinnerBot No.32564844524 ShinnerBot No.32564844524 is offline
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    UK GE 2017 Opinion Polling Thread

    Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...

    One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.

    To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lectually-lazy

    So...where do we stand?

    As of yesterday:

    Prof John Curtice from Strathclyde University conducted the analysis and said Labour’s collapse under Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the results.

    A recent poll of polls put the Conservatives on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 27 per cent – a Tory lead of 16 points. Ukip and the Lib Dems were both on 10 per cent.

    Wiki's poll of polls:



    Guardian/ICM poll gives Conservatives 18-point lead over Labour

    ICM carried out a state of the parties poll over the weekend. These are the first polling figures to be published since Theresa May’s announcement, although the fieldwork was carried out beforehand. Here are the figures.

    Conservatives: 44% (up 1 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 26% (up 1)

    Ukip: 11% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 10% (down 1)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (no change)

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,052 adults aged 18+ online from 14 to 17 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
    The Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory according to a string of recent polls. A poll of polls conducted in March by Electoral Calculus gives the Tories a 112-seat majority in Commons. It was based on more than 10,000 voters.

    A round of weekend polls made it look even better for May.

    A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Tories a stonking 21% lead over Labour.

    Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:
    Opinion Polls: Caveat Emptor
    Last edited by ShinnerBot No.32564844524; 19th April 2017 at 07:28 PM. Reason: TipO'theHat!
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  2. #2
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    There will also be a very hands-on opinion poll in mid-campaign, with local elections in England (county councils), Scotland and Wales on 4 May, and first-time elections for local mayors (not to mention Manchester Gorton which is apparently going ahead!!) Of course the turnout will be very low, but they will show if Lab has any sign of life in them, and also how the LD's perform when they have multiple campaigns to run instead of a few well-focused byelections.
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  3. #3
    Round tower Round tower is offline

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    Any polls done yesterday after the election was called would not take them too seriously, must have been done by telephone, how many people was done, how many areas, they could not ave been big unless they had prior notice.
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  4. #4
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShinnerBot No.32564844524 View Post
    Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...

    One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.

    To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lectually-lazy

    So...where do we stand?

    As of yesterday:



    Wiki's poll of polls:







    Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:
    Opinion Polls: Caveat Emptor
    I loves me some number crunching... Chapeau.

    Interesting discussion on rte news at one as to how a ten point lead won't necessarily mean a massive increase in the Tory majority, largely because Scotland is gone to both labour and the tories, and the fact that a seven point lead only garnered a 12 seat majority last time. Very few hard labour seats will change hands. And a rise in the fortune of the libdems is likely to come from remain soft tories (should such a rise actually occur). Throw in pending electoral fraud charges which may, or may not be pending, and some labour pols remembering that the tories and not corbyn are the enemy, and anything could happen in the next seven weeks.
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  5. #5
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    UK General Election polling is traditionally inaccurate. Its normally correct as to who is leading, but tends to exaggerate (unwittingly) the scale of the leads. 1997 was especially poor, with many polls giving Labour over around 20-30% leads. The links below are examples of poor polling accuracy, though the 2010 election was fairly accurate.

    1997 election
    2001 election
    2005 election
    2015 election

    I think Opinium is closer to the truth, as it was one of the few to get Brexit right. I think there may be a Shy Corbyn vote as in the local elections last year.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 19th April 2017 at 09:29 PM.
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  6. #6
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline

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    Is possible if T May runs the election on a re-hash of BREXIT, hoping to mobilise the Leavers (many of whom never voted before in a reliable way), she might be disappointed.

    But that would require the Opposition Parties to actually fight on domestic issues, and not allow her to turn it into a Churchillian -style "Back Me Against Occupied Europe" lark.

    The reality of life in Britain unless you are coasting on 50, 000 a year and crucially on the housing ladder is pretty sh*t. The trick of BREXIT was to convince people that was Junckers fault. All him and Merkel.

    I suppose one day they will wake up. When the Tories flog off the Sacred Cow - the NHS - and they will do it in a New York minute.
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  7. #7
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Actually the Optimum poll was a bit of an outlier - the polls (as listed on ukpollingreport.co.uk) have been pretty consistent for quite a while now:-

    18 Apr 46 25 11 8 Con +21

    17 Apr 44 26 12 11 Con +18

    13 Apr 38 29 7 14 Con +9

    13 Apr 46 25 11 9 Con +21

    13 Apr 44 23 12 10 Con +21

    6 Apr 42 25 11 11 Con +17

    2 Apr 43 25 11 11 Con +18

    27 Mar 43 25 11 10 Con +18

    21 Mar 41 25 11 12 Con +16

    19 Mar 45 26 9 10 Con +19

    17 Mar 42 25 12 10 Con +17

    17 Mar 41 28 8 13 Con +13

    15 Mar 41 28 7 12 Con +13

    14 Mar 44 27 10 9 Con +17

    14 Mar 43 30 13 6 Con +13

    9 Mar 44 25 10 11 Con +19

    5 Mar 44 28 8 11 Con +16

    28 Feb 42 25 11 12 Con +17

    22 Feb 41 25 11 13 Con +16

    19 Feb 44 26 8 13 Con +18

    16 Feb 40 27 8 14 Con +13

    14 Feb 40 29 13 9 Con +11

    13 Feb 40 24 11 15 Con +16

    10 Feb 41 26 11 11 Con +15

    6 Feb 40 24 11 14 Con +16
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  8. #8
    making waves making waves is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Eagle of the Ninth View Post
    Is possible if T May runs the election on a re-hash of BREXIT, hoping to mobilise the Leavers (many of whom never voted before in a reliable way), she might be disappointed.

    But that would require the Opposition Parties to actually fight on domestic issues, and not allow her to turn it into a Churchillian -style "Back Me Against Occupied Europe" lark.

    The reality of life in Britain unless you are coasting on 50, 000 a year and crucially on the housing ladder is pretty sh*t. The trick of BREXIT was to convince people that was Junckers fault. All him and Merkel.

    I suppose one day they will wake up. When the Tories flog off the Sacred Cow - the NHS - and they will do it in a New York minute.
    The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.

    The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.
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  9. #9
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by making waves View Post
    The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.

    The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.
    Yeah, a radical left programme, that's sure to work. As for your dreaded Blairites, quite a few of them have seen the writing on the wall and pulled out - or perhaps this was part of the sabotaging?

    Oh, and the latest YouGov is 48/24.... in case you wanted to know, though I doubt you pay too much attention to opinion polls.
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  10. #10
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline

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    I can just Teresa going to Europe:

    " Look we've had another election and quite a few people voted for us, well.. they are probably most of those who voted Tory or BREXIT before, but that's by the by.. look you had better give us what we want now"

    - and them just sniggering.
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