FF to lose 15 seats in General Election?

[kerrynorth]

OK here it goes then:
Losses:
Likely (15): Carlow Kilkenny, Cork NC, NW, SC, SW, Donegal NE and SW, Dublin C, NC, NE, NW, SW, Limerick W, Tipp N, Wicklow.
Possible (7): Cork E, Dublin N, SC, Dun Laoighre, Kildare S, Mayo, Longford/Westmeath/Sligo/Leitrim/Roscommon.
Outside Possibilities (6):Cavan/Monaghan, Cork NC, Dublin SE, Kerry N, Laois/Offaly, Waterford.
Possible Gain (1): Kerry S.

You may note that Cork NC appears twice to reflect that they have definitely lost 1 seat with the revision and there is an outside possibility that they may not hold 2 out of 4 as things stand at present. FF also had 5 of 11 seats in the L/W/S/L/R range of constituenices the possible replects that will probably fall to 4 out of 10 next time as things stand at present.

[The Deise Man]

I think SF will pick up a seat in Waterford, depending on the candidate. If Cullinane stands for SF he should take a seat. The question then is whose seat will he take. Its more likely to be a second FF seat then the Labour one.

[Dubliner]

Should Parlon be considered a 'safe' PD? He hasn't really set the world on fire since his election, and unless he can still hold the farmers he could be in trouble - especially if Charlie Flanagan makes a run.

He's got to rustle up a herd of prize public servants for his own constituency, at least, or many businesses and investors are going to lose money. He's 'ear-marked' some Fas people but they've shown nearly zero interest in the green pastures of Birr.

FF have put him out on a limb & it will be interesting to see how much money they'll give him to pay for his 'Parlon Country' theme park.

[apkavanagh]

Should Parlon be considered a 'safe' PD? He hasn't really set the world on fire since his election, and unless he can still hold the farmers he could be in trouble - especially if Charlie Flanagan makes a run.

He's got to rustle up a herd of prize public servants for his own constituency, at least, or many businesses and investors are going to lose money. He's 'ear-marked' some Fas people but they've shown nearly zero interest in the green pastures of Birr.
FF have put him out on a limb & it will be interesting to see how much money they'll give him to pay for his 'Parlon Country' theme park.

FF will do Parlon no favours here - this was the constituency famous for the "Vote 1-2-3-4 and then Stop!" instructions given out by FF at the last GE (i.e. vote FF 1-2-3-4 and don't transfer to Parlon). Parlon got a lot of natural FG votes last time out, especially in Laois, that will probably be coming back to FG next time. Unless he can really pull out the PD vote from their heartlands of Birr/Coolderry and Emo/Portarlington, he'll lose his seat next time. Definitely more vulnerable than the 3rd FF seat.