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  1. #751
    brughahaha brughahaha is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Justinian View Post
    Yadayadayada, idiot.
    Nah the idiot is the one claiming to be speaking for an entire country ...got a mirror handy ?
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  2. #752
    locke locke is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    https://sputniknews.com/europe/20170...-sunday-polls/


    Macron is odds on favourite in the bookies- I know, I know,
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...next-president



    But I expect him to win in the end.
    I expect Macron to win but...

    He's not that far ahead of Le Pen and Fillon. Their support is more solid (80%+ say they will vote, whereas Macron lags there by 10%+). As I've pointed out previously, Fillon also takes disproportional support from elderly, rural, middle-class voters i.e. those who turn up to vote.

    I can see all three of Macron, Le Pen and Fillon coming in around the 22%-23% mark.

    And that's where the risk to Macron is.

    Should he make the top 2, he will be President, short of an enormous scandal or assassination.

    But I reckon there's about a 30% chance he won't make the top 2.
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  3. #753
    petaljam petaljam is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surkov View Post
    Campaigning is called off as a mark of respect.

    Didn't the same thing happen after the MP was shot in the UK shortly before the Brexit vote?
    So much for Marine Le Pen's "mark of respect" eh?
    Made a big speech from the safety of her HQ today, about how she is the only person able to stop terrorists - after having said that it wouldn't be suitable to continue political campaigning when policeman had just been killed.
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  4. #754
    Trampas Trampas is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    I expect Macron to win but...

    He's not that far ahead of Le Pen and Fillon. Their support is more solid (80%+ say they will vote, whereas Macron lags there by 10%+). As I've pointed out previously, Fillon also takes disproportional support from elderly, rural, middle-class voters i.e. those who turn up to vote.

    I can see all three of Macron, Le Pen and Fillon coming in around the 22%-23% mark.

    And that's where the risk to Macron is.

    Should he make the top 2, he will be President, short of an enormous scandal or assassination.

    But I reckon there's about a 30% chance he won't make the top 2.

    With any luck. I would settle for Fillon. He has the experience and he understands the nature and extent of the threat that a 10% (and rising inexorably) Muslim population presents to La France. Before the expenses scandal he was a shoo-in. But then in France scandals of one kind or another tend to follow candidates and incumbents.
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  5. #755
    Vega1447 Vega1447 is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trampas View Post
    With any luck. I would settle for Fillon. He has the experience and he understands the nature and extent of the threat that a 10% (and rising inexorably) Muslim population presents to La France. Before the expenses scandal he was a shoo-in. But then in France scandals of one kind or another tend to follow candidates and incumbents.
    So when he tries to cut waste in public spending - or even tries to tackle corruption? Muffled laughter?
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  6. #756
    petaljam petaljam is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vega1447 View Post
    So when he tries to cut waste in public spending - or even tries to tackle corruption? Muffled laughter?
    He's already a laughing stock over that, none of the comedians and sketch writers ever miss a chance to bring that up in multiple ways.
    If he were president? It would bring the same shame to the role of president.

    And then there's his belief that the whole justice system can be turned against individuals for personal interest when it suits.
    That's more worrying than his nodding acquaintance with fiscal rectitude.
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  7. #757
    TARZAN TARZAN is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    I expect Macron to win but...

    He's not that far ahead of Le Pen and Fillon. Their support is more solid (80%+ say they will vote, whereas Macron lags there by 10%+). As I've pointed out previously, Fillon also takes disproportional support from elderly, rural, middle-class voters i.e. those who turn up to vote.

    I can see all three of Macron, Le Pen and Fillon coming in around the 22%-23% mark.

    And that's where the risk to Macron is.

    Should he make the top 2, he will be President, short of an enormous scandal or assassination.

    But I reckon there's about a 30% chance he won't make the top 2.
    Another shooting or bombing by Islamists in France or Germany will ensure Le Pen wins. Currently I would put her in the top 2 because her supporters will go out and vote for her.
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  8. #758
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is online now
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    Personally, I'd love it if Jean-Luc Melenchon won.
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  9. #759
    locke locke is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by TARZAN View Post
    Another shooting or bombing by Islamists in France or Germany will ensure Le Pen wins. Currently I would put her in the top 2 because her supporters will go out and vote for her.
    I know a lot of Le Pen supporters on here are hoping for a shooting or bombing, but my gut feeling is that it's too late now. Anything that happens at this point will be met by a reaction of "We won't let the bastards win". It would have taken several attacks a few weeks out from the election to turn security into the major issue.
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  10. #760
    Trainwreck Trainwreck is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    I know a lot of Le Pen supporters on here are hoping for a shooting or bombing

    What is wrong with you people?
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