The big three are Sarkozy, Juppé and Fillon. At least one of these will be eliminated in this round of voting. The second round takes place next Sunday, November 20. This is a head-to-head between the two candidates with the most votes after the first round. The winner of the republican primary is likely to face FN leader Marine le Pen in the final round of voting at the presidential election in May of next year.
Such a scenario assumes that the Socialist candidate will be eliminated in the first-round of voting for the presidency. President Francois Hollande will be challenged by two of his own former ministers, Emmanuel Macron and Arnaud Montebourg, for the nomination at the Socialist primary in January. Despite the incumbent president's persistent levels of unpopularity, it would be surprising were he not to be selected as the Socialist candidate.
Just on a point of information, Macron has avoided the chore of this pre-first electoral round of primaries by leaving the PS some months ago to start his own political movement, "En Marche!" of which he is naturally the sole presidential candidate.
Politics.ie is one of Ireland's leading politics and current affairs discussion websites with more than 600,000 visitors a month. Founded in 2003, Politics.ie has one of the most engaged, respected and influential politics and current affairs communities.