Register to Comment
Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 106
Like Tree111Likes
  1. #1
    davehiggz davehiggz is offline
    davehiggz's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    2,191

    Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate

    Hi folks,

    I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

    First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

    I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  2. #2
    flavirostris flavirostris is offline
    flavirostris's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    23,958

    Wow . That is some awesome work
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  3. #3
    Carlos Danger Carlos Danger is offline
    Carlos Danger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    9,161
    Twitter
    @

    Well done, Dave.

    How do you manage to project second, third, fourth preferences? Nate Silver has a much easier task sine the US has a different electoral process.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  4. #4
    ruserious ruserious is offline
    ruserious's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    30,081

    Any chance you'd buy this site? Well done.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  5. #5
    Congalltee Congalltee is online now

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    7,250

    The two SF candidates in DBN each have 80% plus probability of being elected?
    Going from 0/6 to 2/5.
    Really?
    (There is a high chance I don't understand probability).
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  6. #6
    sadcitizen sadcitizen is offline

    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    3,921

    Good work.

    Just a warning, almost every table/graph except for the Dáil make-up graph are not showing up in IE11 or IE Metro on Windows 8.1. Most stats show that more people use IE than Firefox or Safari, so it'd be a good idea to make sure it works. I'll update IE here and see if it makes a difference.

    Edit: Still definitely not on IE. I thought it was an iframe issue except it works on Windows Mobile IE, so I'm guessing it's a Datawrapper thing.
    Last edited by sadcitizen; 12th February 2016 at 02:52 PM.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  7. #7
    tigerben tigerben is offline
    tigerben's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    4,876

    Excellent work , well done you .
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  8. #8
    General Urko General Urko is offline
    General Urko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    12,409

    Good work mate!
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  9. #9
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
    ShoutingIsLeadership's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    47,775

    Does Regina Doherty get re-elected? If the answer is yes, then I hope your site gets shut down.


    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  10. #10
    Cathalio11 Cathalio11 is offline
    Cathalio11's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    328

    Sinn Fein 99% and Labour 92% to win a seat in Carlow/Kilkenny. Now that is audacious.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast
Sign in to CommentRegister to Comment