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  1. #21
    fontenoy fontenoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by crossman View Post
    I like the idea but it is giving some crazy results e.g. SF to get a seat in Cork SC with McGrath only a 30% chance or Nash with 0% in Louth when he is at least in with a shout.
    Agreed, much as I wish it wasn't true he will probably 50/50 get the last seat. Fitzpatrick at 73% for a seat, no chance, he just about got in the last time when FG was riding an electoral tsunami. SF 2, FG 1, FF 1, LAB 1 Louth.
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  2. #22
    GabhaDubh GabhaDubh is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    I recommend you consult electionsireland.org so you can see how national swings differed from constituency swings and factor that into your algorithm.

    The recent Irish Times poll showed married people were far more likely to vote FG, whereas singles were voting for SF and Indos. As it happens Wexford is 51% single but its also probably older than average. On the other hand its 63% rural which contributes to a resistance to electoral change.
    Dame Edna, this is merely the first go around of his site. The data from the reduction of the number of sitting TD's will hone the accuracy of future graphs, also if there is a snap election called with-in the next year or so, that additional data will tighten the projections. Remember these are only projections based on existing data on a now test website. Davehiggz, great work what a tremendous effort.
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  3. #23
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by fontenoy View Post
    Agreed, much as I wish it wasn't true he will probably 50/50 get the last seat. Fitzpatrick at 73% for a seat, no chance, he just about got in the last time when FG was riding an electoral tsunami. SF 2, FG 1, FF 1, LAB 1 Louth.
    The thing about Nash is, Labour have no historical seat in Louth and Nash only took 5% in GE 2007 while Labour only took approx 5% in Louth in the Locals.

    With SF eating up the Labour 2011 vote in Louth where is 5% Nash supposed to get the votes from to get into contention. He's an appalling price at 1/4 for a seat.
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  4. #24
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ireallyshouldknowbetter View Post
    Firstly, as a numbers freak, I welcome this site, it's quite fascinating and I look forward to checking in on its projections.

    I would have a question regarding how you have verified its accuracy. Basically, I am wondering if you've backtested it. When building algorithms to project future outcomes, I would say the only way to be confident in future performance would be by running blind tests of previous outcomes using the model.

    As others have pointed out, some of the constituencies are likely inaccurate. Much as I would love to think Joan Burton only has a 4% chance of election in Dublin West, she's at evens in the betting markets so factoring in Paddy's enormous over-round, the market gives her about a 40% chance of election.

    Again, much as I'd love to think Kelly has only a 3% chance of election - and much as I don't believe either him or Burton will win election - he has more than the 3% probability you give him. He's at 1/3 to win a seat.

    Howlin holds arguably Labour's safest seat, so a 1% probability is.... bold. The market has him at 1/10 reflecting, after over-round, a true probability in the region of 85%. You have the Shinner as a 100% probability; he's 2/1 in the markets.

    All of which suggests possible structural issues with the model in terms of calculation of Labour candidates probability.
    Like Kavanagh it's a great resource, common sense applied to what it's telling you should provide a good balance between the theoretical numerical position and the local realities of candidate specifics at constituency level.
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  5. #25
    ireallyshouldknowbetter ireallyshouldknowbetter is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seanie Lemass View Post
    @ireallyshouldknowbetter

    Your observations regarding betting odds and their predicted outcomes would be interesting to test against the results as some of the site's predictions throw up some good outside bets, including one you have noted.

    That was how people used Silver's PECOTA ratings as factors in betting on baseball.
    It's an interesting idea. As it happens, I am up to my neck in a football algorithm at the moment(this one: Football: The BTTS System) but I plan to turn some attention to the elections closer to the time, and that would certainly be an interesting way to measure the system - there are some big outsiders projected there...
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  6. #26
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    For example if you look at the Howlin vote in 1992 and 1997, it was only down 2% despite the national Labour vote halving. Granted SF were practically non existent at that stage in electoral terms back then and the Left is much more crowded.
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  7. #27
    fontenoy fontenoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plebian View Post
    The thing about Nash is, Labour have no historical seat in Louth and Nash only took 5% in GE 2007 while Labour only took approx 5% in Louth in the Locals.

    With SF eating up the Labour 2011 vote in Louth where is 5% Nash supposed to get the votes from to get into contention. He's an appalling price at 1/4 for a seat.
    I can't see either FG or FF getting a second seat and there is no viable indo candidate. Mark Dearey of the Greens gets a vote but never anymore than that and will not get transfers. So I think after Mary Moran LAB gets eliminated Nash will hold on for the last without reaching a quota.

    This is all speculation ofcourse and just how I see it panning out.
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  8. #28
    ireallyshouldknowbetter ireallyshouldknowbetter is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plebian View Post
    The thing about Nash is, Labour have no historical seat in Louth and Nash only took 5% in GE 2007 while Labour only took approx 5% in Louth in the Locals.

    With SF eating up the Labour 2011 vote in Louth where is 5% Nash supposed to get the votes from to get into contention. He's an appalling price at 1/4 for a seat.
    They are nearly all at appalling prices because of the outrageous over-round. There are 6 odds on favourites in 4 seat fields; you wouldn't get that in a sports market, where there is more competition. Paddy can't get away with it on his international political odds either, because there are other firms offering odds on, for example, the US presidential elections.
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  9. #29
    fontenoy fontenoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ireallyshouldknowbetter View Post
    It's an interesting idea. As it happens, I am up to my neck in a football algorithm at the moment(this one: Football: The BTTS System) but I plan to turn some attention to the elections closer to the time, and that would certainly be an interesting way to measure the system - there are some big outsiders projected there...
    Are you mathbets on that site?
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  10. #30
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    Hi folks,

    I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

    First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

    I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
    Excellent site Dave. Kudos. Someone should add this to the election resources thread.
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