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  1. #11
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Hmmm have you factored in geographical considerations, like Mythen being the third candidate from Enniscorthy, which Ivan Yates thinks splits the Enniscorthy vote too much to elect Mythen?

    I mean - Howlin only 1% chance of being elected? Even a Wallace canvasser have told me he will get in.

    A good start and a great idea, but I think you need to adjust the model to take account of the role of geography and the innate conservatism of rural Ireland when it comes to leaving the Civil War parties, as well as the class breakdown. I suggest you consult the Census on social class. There will certainly not be as much of a swing away from Labour and FG among the middle classes as among the working class. The national swing will not be uniform. It hardly ever is.
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  2. #12
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Hmmm have you factored in geographical considerations, like Mythen being the third candidate from Enniscorthy, which Ivan Yates thinks splits the Enniscorthy vote too much to elect Mythen?

    I mean - Howlin only 1% chance of being elected? Even a Wallace canvasser have told me he will get in.

    A good start and a great idea, but I think you need to adjust the model to take account of the role of geography and the innate conservatism of rural Ireland when it comes to leaving the Civil War parties, as well as the class breakdown. I suggest you consult the Census on social class. There will certainly not be as much of a swing away from Labour and FG among the middle classes as among the working class. The national swing will not be uniform. It hardly ever is.
    Yates is too stuck in the past to realise that IF Mythen gets elected it will be on the SF brand being strong enough across the 5 seater to get him into contention. That same brand dynamic may cause chaos as regards the traditional geographical distribution of seats in a fair few constituencies.
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  3. #13
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Another factor is that the retirement of Liam Twomey has freed up some of the Wexford town vote for Howlin, according to Yates on Newstalk a few days ago. He said this "greatly improved" Howlins chances. This is a seat that survived the 1987 rout where Labour got 7% nationally.
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  4. #14
    Shiloh Shiloh is offline

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    This is very interesting. I don't know your methodology but it looks intriguing.

    Just looking at the results though SF FF and independents seem to be getting more seats than anyone else is predicting. Also FG look a little shy.

    Looking into things on a party basis it looks as if you are predicting than neither Joan Burton or Alan Kelly will win a seat - that would be some pickle for the laborious party.
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  5. #15
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is online now

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    Really top class effort.
    Thanks

    Will stay tuned and think you will get very close to actual result.
    Any model that can strip away the skew caused by party bias is ok with me as is any model using Nate Silver methodology.
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  6. #16
    ireallyshouldknowbetter ireallyshouldknowbetter is offline
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    Firstly, as a numbers freak, I welcome this site, it's quite fascinating and I look forward to checking in on its projections.

    I would have a question regarding how you have verified its accuracy. Basically, I am wondering if you've backtested it. When building algorithms to project future outcomes, I would say the only way to be confident in future performance would be by running blind tests of previous outcomes using the model.

    As others have pointed out, some of the constituencies are likely inaccurate. Much as I would love to think Joan Burton only has a 4% chance of election in Dublin West, she's at evens in the betting markets so factoring in Paddy's enormous over-round, the market gives her about a 40% chance of election.

    Again, much as I'd love to think Kelly has only a 3% chance of election - and much as I don't believe either him or Burton will win election - he has more than the 3% probability you give him. He's at 1/3 to win a seat.

    Howlin holds arguably Labour's safest seat, so a 1% probability is.... bold. The market has him at 1/10 reflecting, after over-round, a true probability in the region of 85%. You have the Shinner as a 100% probability; he's 2/1 in the markets.

    All of which suggests possible structural issues with the model in terms of calculation of Labour candidates probability.
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  7. #17
    Seanie Lemass Seanie Lemass is offline

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    Interesting!

    You now need to follow Silver's other interest into sports, and advise us on betting for the GAA championship
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  8. #18
    crossman crossman is offline

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    I like the idea but it is giving some crazy results e.g. SF to get a seat in Cork SC with McGrath only a 30% chance or Nash with 0% in Louth when he is at least in with a shout.
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  9. #19
    Seanie Lemass Seanie Lemass is offline

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    @ireallyshouldknowbetter

    Your observations regarding betting odds and their predicted outcomes would be interesting to test against the results as some of the site's predictions throw up some good outside bets, including one you have noted.

    That was how people used Silver's PECOTA ratings as factors in betting on baseball.
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  10. #20
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    I recommend you consult electionsireland.org so you can see how national swings differed from constituency swings and factor that into your algorithm.

    The recent Irish Times poll showed married people were far more likely to vote FG, whereas singles were voting for SF and Indos. As it happens Wexford is 51% single but its also probably older than average. On the other hand its 63% rural which contributes to a resistance to electoral change.
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