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  1. #101
    endajo endajo is offline
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    The site looks lovely but the predictions have been queried by people with local knowledge and franky appear off the wall in many cases. In fairness though, the OP has explained his model and published his results. If he's right, then Frank Flannery can finally leave the stage as a new star has been born. If not, then well presumably he'll learn from the errors and the model will be better next time.

    Although I agree with many posters on the apparently crazy predicitons in many of the constituencies, I find the overall predicted seat tallies disturbingly similiar to my own expectations.

    Neosfaidh an aimsir.
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  2. #102
    peterspolitics peterspolitics is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    Hi folks,

    I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

    First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

    I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.
    Pretty impressive work my friend, well done
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  3. #103
    Councillor Joe Councillor Joe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by friendlyfire View Post
    Well you are off the wall,one or both will be elected.....I will take your bet!
    I would agree with this analysis - I've been over in Wexford a lot in the last two weeks, and I'd put a small but confident wager on both Wallace and Mythen to get over the line with some to spare.
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  4. #104
    Councillor Joe Councillor Joe is offline

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    BTW crackingly good entertaining site for us anoraks, David. Bravo!!
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  5. #105
    toner456 toner456 is offline

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    Agree. The approach has potential although the resolution at the local level is so idiosyncratic. The poll of polls approach is sensible but with the constituency changes and the undecideds to be factored in you'd need a Cray II to crunch it
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  6. #106
    Fullforward Fullforward is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by crownjewels View Post
    Forecast for Wexford looks very odd. I don't think pinko Wallace or myrten (SF) have a chance

    Sent from my B1-810 using Tapatalk
    Wallace was comfortable in taking the 3rd seat and Myrten only missed out taking the Chief Whips seat by 55 votes!
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