Next Government

[livingstone]

Theres a lot of talk about on the results from different constituencies and performances of parties, but what do people think the most likely next government is. Obviously party and constituency results point to this, but the composition next Government is going to be very very interesting. At the moment it would seem that no Government is possible without Fianna Fail - even if they lose 10-15 seats, it still seems that the main altermative may not have enough seats. Howver, it seems unlikely that FF will be able to form a majority 2party Government with the PD's, the Greens or even SF. Looking at some predictions, even a FF/SF/Green coalition would be a minority govt. It seems then that the only 2 party majority Govt that could be formed is FF/Lab (discounting the possability of FF/FG). I wouldnt discount the possability of a return to the 81/82 hung dail athmosphere.

[geraghd]

Just my two cent worth. Im guessing, going on recent polls that there will prob be a hung dail. In this situation I dont see Labour bowing to a 'higher morality' and sense of 'public duty' and going into govt with FF to prevent a FF/SF coalition, though this is less relevant now that the IRA have seemed to have given up the guns. Therefore Im predicting another election straight after which will focus almost solely on a FF or FG/Lab govt. Either way I personally dont see FG in govt at the next Dail.

[TKwhiskers]

General Election Prediction

Carlow Kilkenny, (5) FF - 2, FG - 2, LAB - 1
Cavan Monaghan, (5) FF - 2, FG - 1, SF - 1, IND - 1
Clare, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, IND - 1
Cork East, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, LAB - 1
Cork North Central, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, LAB - 1
Cork North West, (3) FF - 1, FG - 2
Cork South Central, (5) FF – 3, FG – 1, GP – 1
Cork South West, (3) FF – 1, FG - 2
Donegal North East, (3) FF – 2, IND - 1
Donegal South West, (3) FF – 2, SF - 1
Dublin Central, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, IND - 1
Dublin Mid West, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, GP – 1, PDs - 1
Dublin North, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, GP - 1
Dublin North Central, (3) FF – 2, FG – 1
Dublin North East, (3) FF – 2, LAB - 1
Dublin North West, (3) FF – 2, SF - 1
Dublin South, (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, PDs – 1
Dublin South Central, (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, SF - 1
Dublin South East, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, GP – 1, PDs - 1
Dublin South West, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, SF - 1
Dublin West, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Dun Laoghaire, (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, LAB – 1
Galway East (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, IND - 1
Galway West (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, PDs - 1
Kerry North, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, SF – 1
Kerry South, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Kildare North, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB – 1, IND - 1
Kildare South, (3) FF - 2, LAB - 1
Laois / Offaly (5) FF – 3, FG – 1, PDs - 1
Limerick East (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, PDs - 1
Limerick West (3) FF – 2, FG – 1
Longford Westmeath (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1
Louth (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, SF - 1
Mayo (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, IND - 1
Meath East (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB - 1
Meath West (3) FF – 2, FG - 1
Roscommon/South Leitrim (3) FF – 2, FG – 1,
Sligo/North Leitrim (3) FF – 1, FG - 2
Tipperay North (3) FF – 2, IND - 1
Tipperay South (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Waterford (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB - 1
Wexford (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, LAB - 1
Wicklow (5) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB – 2, IND - 1

Break Down
FF - 76
FG - 42
LAB - 19
SF - 7
GP - 4
PDs - 6
IND - 12
Totals (166)

Possible Government Options:
FF/GP - 80
FF/PD - 82
FF/SF - 83
FF/Lab - 95

FG/LAB/GP/PDs - 72
FG/LAB/GP - 65
FG/LAB - 61

[Parnell]

Any chance you could elaborate on your predictions, constituency by constituency, and put some names on the bums on seats :wink:

[The Deise Man]

General Election Prediction

Carlow Kilkenny, (5) FF - 2, FG - 2, LAB - 1
Cavan Monaghan, (5) FF - 2, FG - 1, SF - 1, IND - 1
Clare, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, IND - 1
Cork East, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, LAB - 1
Cork North Central, (4) FF - 2, FG - 1, LAB - 1
Cork North West, (3) FF - 1, FG - 2
Cork South Central, (5) FF – 3, FG – 1, GP – 1
Cork South West, (3) FF – 1, FG - 2
Donegal North East, (3) FF – 2, IND - 1
Donegal South West, (3) FF – 2, SF - 1
Dublin Central, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, IND - 1
Dublin Mid West, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, GP – 1, PDs - 1
Dublin North, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, GP - 1
Dublin North Central, (3) FF – 2, FG – 1
Dublin North East, (3) FF – 2, LAB - 1
Dublin North West, (3) FF – 2, SF - 1
Dublin South, (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, PDs – 1
Dublin South Central, (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, SF - 1
Dublin South East, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, GP – 1, PDs - 1
Dublin South West, (4) FF – 2, LAB – 1, SF - 1
Dublin West, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Dun Laoghaire, (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, LAB – 1
Galway East (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, IND - 1
Galway West (5) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1, PDs - 1
Kerry North, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, SF – 1
Kerry South, (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Kildare North, (4) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB – 1, IND - 1
Kildare South, (3) FF - 2, LAB - 1
Laois / Offaly (5) FF – 3, FG – 1, PDs - 1
Limerick East (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, PDs - 1
Limerick West (3) FF – 2, FG – 1
Longford Westmeath (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB – 1
Louth (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, SF - 1
Mayo (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, IND - 1
Meath East (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB - 1
Meath West (3) FF – 2, FG - 1
Roscommon/South Leitrim (3) FF – 2, FG – 1,
Sligo/North Leitrim (3) FF – 1, FG - 2
Tipperay North (3) FF – 2, IND - 1
Tipperay South (3) FF – 1, FG – 1, IND - 1
Waterford (4) FF – 2, FG – 1, LAB - 1
Wexford (5) FF – 2, FG – 2, LAB - 1
Wicklow (5) FF – 1, FG – 1, LAB – 2, IND - 1

Break Down
FF - 76
FG - 42
LAB - 19
SF - 7
GP - 4
PDs - 6
IND - 12
Totals (166)

Possible Government Options:
FF/GP - 80
FF/PD - 82
FF/SF - 83
FF/Lab - 95

FG/LAB/GP/PDs - 72
FG/LAB/GP - 65
FG/LAB - 61

Well I think you will really be upset come election day if you think SF will win only seven seats. I would add Waterford, Wexford and one more seat in Dublin as near certs for Sinn Fein giving them 10 with a few more maybes such as Cork NC.

[hiding behind a poster]

TK, I don't know how you can look at the local results, the euro results, the by-election results, the anti-FF sentiment among the general public that clearly wasn't there in 2002, and finish by giving them 76 seats - they're gonna lose more than that. To do a really solid prediction, you'd have to go into each constituency, input a percentage swing against FF into the first count, assign the swing to whoever is most likely to benefit most, then factor in a lower rate of transfers to FF than in 2002, look at the subsequent order of eliminations, and see where that leaves you. It's a big job, I'll have a go at it sometime, but right now there's plenty of sport on the box so I couldn't be ar*ed.

[capt_buzzard]

Dublin Sth Central, 2007

FF 1
FG 1
Labour 1
Sinn Fein 2

[smiffy]

Dublin Sth Central, 2007

FF 1
FG 1
Labour 1
Sinn Fein 2

[hiding behind a poster]

Dublin Sth Central, 2007

FF 1
FG 1
Labour 1
Sinn Fein 2

And who, pray, might this mysterious second Provo be?

[Rocky]

[quote=hiding behind a poster]

Dublin Sth Central, 2007

FF 1
FG 1
Labour 1
Sinn Fein 2

And who, pray, might this mysterious second Provo be?[/quote:3fos3ip5]

Probably himself :wink: