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  1. #2011
    Edo Edo is offline

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    Just a belated addendum to the Carlow/KK by election

    I got my hands on a full copy of the tally - very interesting reading - here are a few interesting tidbits.

    Here are the breakdowns per LEA

    South Carlow

    FF 22.1%
    FG 18.6%
    SF 16.1%
    RN 7.2%
    LAB 22.0% (home territory for Lab Candidate)

    Turnout 56% approx

    Carlow Town
    FF 21%
    FG 16%
    SF 22%
    RN 9%
    LAB 7.9%
    Turnout: 49%

    Castlecomer LEA:
    FF 33.5%
    FG 23.1%
    SF 15.3%
    RN 9.3%
    Lab 3.6%
    Turnout: 63%

    Kilkenny West:
    FF 21.7
    FG 25.3 (FG candidate home LEA)
    SF 14.2
    RN 14.9
    lab 1.6
    turnout: 61%

    Kilkenny East
    FF 26.7%
    FG 22.0%
    SF 13.6%
    RN 10.7%
    lab 3.4%
    turnout: 61%

    Piltown
    FF 40.8% (FF candidate home territory)
    FG 20.7%
    SF 16.3%
    RN 5.5%
    lab 2.4%
    turnout: 61%

    I haven't bothered with all the independent candidates - because bar Gardner in her home Kilkenny East LEA -9% - none of them got more than 5% in any LEA

    Very interesting - like all byelections - notoriously hard to know how this will correlate to the GE next year

    looking at Carlow - powerful result for SF - so much so - that maybe they should be seriously looking at a Carlow Candidate and use Funchion as a kilkenny sweeper . Also looking down thru all the Carlow boxes - I would definitely say that there is something to be said for the suggestion that many conservatives stayed away from the polls - given the number of young people that turned out for Yes campaign and probably voted for the opposition in the by-election - the actual turnout was well lower than the GE...there does seem to have been bit of a stay away by older conservative voters - not that that should give any succour to FG - that vote is only going to get smaller regardless.

    All in all - this is going to be a very tightly contested constituency next time around - with all the big beast returning.........McGuinness will take back the FF vote in the north of the county and city - JP Phelan will cut Alywards vote in half in Piltown.......those 2 are the only certainties here...........the other 3 seats are all in the mix - Sinn Fein will definitely take one - barring a calamity - but which one will it be ? - stick with Funchion and hope she takes enough kilkenny votes and has a free run in Carlow (unlikely) or go with a good Carlow candidate who could top the vote in Carlow and freewheel downhill with each Carlow elimination to the 1 Carlow seat (like Deering the last time).....and Deering is in trouble big time....thats going to be an interesting one - as the Barrow divide will come back into play next time around. ......Renua could pull a seat out of this aswell - FG's disarray could be their opportunity - we could be looking at 1 FF,1 FG,1 SF,1 RN and a.n.other (probably an almighty bunfight between FF and FG for the last seat)

    It will be very interesting.
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  2. #2012
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edo View Post
    J
    All in all - this is going to be a very tightly contested constituency next time around - with all the big beast returning.........McGuinness will take back the FF vote in the north of the county and city - JP Phelan will cut Alywards vote in half in Piltown.......those 2 are the only certainties here...........the other 3 seats are all in the mix - Sinn Fein will definitely take one - barring a calamity - but which one will it be ? - stick with Funchion and hope she takes enough kilkenny votes and has a free run in Carlow (unlikely) or go with a good Carlow candidate who could top the vote in Carlow and freewheel downhill with each Carlow elimination to the 1 Carlow seat (like Deering the last time).....and Deering is in trouble big time....thats going to be an interesting one - as the Barrow divide will come back into play next time around. ......Renua could pull a seat out of this aswell - FG's disarray could be their opportunity - we could be looking at 1 FF,1 FG,1 SF,1 RN and a.n.other (probably an almighty bunfight between FF and FG for the last seat)

    It will be very interesting.
    FF in worst election ever in 2011 got 28.1% and then they were transfer repellent.
    I see 2 FF seats here.
    While actual quota doesn't change the theoretical quota i.e. last elected plus last eliminated divide by 2 was less than 9600 votes.

    I see 2 FF 2 FG and 1 another depending on how vote splits.
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  3. #2013
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterPurple View Post
    Let me guess who you hope is the " 1 another " - Renua's McKee Obviously Funchion coming in 3rd and transferring well hasn't a hope against McKee, yeah sure.
    When you have been on here long enough you will realise the stupidity of the above statement.
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  4. #2014
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterPurple View Post
    So who is it now your hoping will be the " 1 another ". let me guess........ Labour
    You really know little of me so when you do you will assess whether the AN Other claim you making holds water
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  5. #2015
    lostexpectation lostexpectation is offline

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    trying to find that story about Patrick Mckee owing money to Renua according to Renua it was still on their books in 2016 http://www.sipo.ie/en/Reports/Politi...f-Accounts.pdf
    Last edited by lostexpectation; 1st December 2017 at 12:23 PM.
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