3 Seat DSW….Who would loose out?

[drjimryan]

Hi all…..just perusing the submissions and wondered if the green proposed 3 seat dsw was to come about who would loose out?

Based on election 07……rabitte, oconnor and hayes would be well placed…..BUT what about conor and a resurgent sean crowe?..............

Or are sinn fein / IRA finished in dsw?

Will O’Connor run again? Or indeed will his dodgy ‘ticker’ make him throw in the towel?

Or am I missing something else?

Any thoughts?

[meriwether]

Hi all…..just perusing the submissions and wondered if the green proposed 3 seat dsw was to come about who would loose out?

Based on election 07……rabitte, oconnor and hayes would be well placed…..BUT what about conor and a resurgent sean crowe?..............

Or are sinn fein / IRA finished in dsw?

Will O’Connor run again? Or indeed will his dodgy ‘ticker’ make him throw in the towel?

Or am I missing something else?

Any thoughts?

If its 3 seats, then the only vulenrable one to Crowe is Hayes. FF have one safe cert if it goes down to three.
But even then, I dont see Crowe taking his seat.

[The Trinity Politick]

In such a case FF would lose one and SF would not gain one back. DSW wont be a 3 seater

[locke]

I can't see DSW going down to three seats. The Greens proposed it for obvious reasons, but if the constituency commission accepted it, it would look like blatant gerrymandering.

Considering the areas that would be transferred in such a scenario, Sinn Fein would probably lose the fewest voters.

In a three seat DSW, the only thing that would be guaranteed would be one FF seat.

[geraghd]

I would imagine it would depend on what part of the population is taken out of DSW...

[Defeated Romanticist]

Could Pat Rabitte be in trouble in 5 years time? He ight not be the leader of Labour by then. Even if he is he should remember the ghost of Frank Clusky. If he isn't he should remember Dick Spring

[The Trinity Politick]

Could Pat Rabitte be in trouble in 5 years time? He ight not be the leader of Labour by then. Even if he is he should remember the ghost of Frank Clusky. If he isn't he should remember Dick Spring

Unlikely. Labour has a strong presence on the councils and barely missed an additional seat. I would say a Labour seat is guaranteed, as is one Fianna Fail. Then its Fine Gael and lastly Sinn Fein. The Sinn Fein seat loss will be difficult to regain

[rockofcashel]

Like everything it would depend on what areas would be taken out of the new 3 seater constituency.. remember, Crowe couldn't win a seat in a 5 seater, but won when it was reduced to a 4 seater.. if your core areas make up a new constituency.. then you might get lucky

[kerrynorth]

Highly unlikely to be made a 3 seater. It would be more likely to become a 5 seater in a realignment along CC boundaries. across Dublin. On balance staying as a 4 seater is mostly likely. If it were to become a 3 seater then the middle class areas adjoining South would go. With the result that Lenihan would most likely lose out. SF would not benefit materially as the quota would rise from 20 to 25pc.

[Rocky]

Dublin South West has a rising population so I can't see it becoming a 3 seater, it's more likely to become a five seater and gain parts of other constituencies. If it became a three seater the obvious parts to take out of DSW would be the areas that border Dublin South Central and Dublin South i.e. the Middle Class areas that aren’t Tallaght, but they're both five seaters so that can't happen.

If it did become a three seater and I don’t see how that could happen, then Rabbitt would be safe as one would FFer. The last seat would be between FG, SF and FF and unless FG had another disaster like 2002 I believe they would take the seat.