FF v FG - General Election Head to Head

[qtman]

By my reckoning, FG managed to win only 7 FF seats in the General Election:

Cork South Central
Cork South West
Donegal North East
Dublin North East
Galway East
Mayo
Tipp North


2 of these were in FG's heartland, and seats that they've held for generations, only 1 seat was claimed in Dublin.

Is this as good a performance as they think it is?

[The Trinity Politick]

By my reckoning, FG managed to win only 7 FF seats in the General Election:

Cork South Central
Cork South West
Donegal North East
Dublin North East
Galway East
Mayo
Tipp North


2 of these were in FG's heartland, and seats that they've held for generations, only 1 seat was claimed in Dublin.

Is this as good a performance as they think it is?

We won 20 seats. I couldn't give a fart where those seats and whom we took them from.

[qtman]

By my reckoning, FG managed to win only 7 FF seats in the General Election:

Cork South Central
Cork South West
Donegal North East
Dublin North East
Galway East
Mayo
Tipp North


2 of these were in FG's heartland, and seats that they've held for generations, only 1 seat was claimed in Dublin.

Is this as good a performance as they think it is?

We won 20 seats. I couldn't give a fart where those seats and whom we took them from.

Well you should, cause the only way for FG to get into Government is through FF's front door.

[Insider2007]

By my reckoning, FG managed to win only 7 FF seats in the General Election:

Cork South Central
Cork South West
Donegal North East
Dublin North East
Galway East
Mayo
Tipp North


2 of these were in FG's heartland, and seats that they've held for generations, only 1 seat was claimed in Dublin.

Is this as good a performance as they think it is?

Of course they weren't targeting FF seats. FFers don't switch to to FG and FGers don't switch to FF. They, correctly, targeted seats where there were swing voters: eg-FG voters who previously switched to the PDs and independents. In doing that they picked up the biggest comparative seat total increase in Irish political history.

FF seats were targeted by parties where there is a swing vote between themselves and FF. However those parties, Labour and SF, failed to make inroads.

Next time, having got back seats from independents and the PDs, they will be targeting the Greens, almost all of whose seats are within their grasp and most of which were won on FG transfers, as swingable FF seats.

Use some cop-on.

[Insider2007]

By my reckoning, FG managed to win only 7 FF seats in the General Election:

Cork South Central
Cork South West
Donegal North East
Dublin North East
Galway East
Mayo
Tipp North


2 of these were in FG's heartland, and seats that they've held for generations, only 1 seat was claimed in Dublin.

Is this as good a performance as they think it is?

We won 20 seats. I couldn't give a fart where those seats and whom we took them from.

Well you should, cause the only way for FG to get into Government is through FF's front door.

It couldn't be done in one election. FG had to take part seats it lost with swing votes first. In doing that it broke the record for comparable seat gains.

[seamasdefaoite]

Of course they weren't targeting FF seats. FFers don't switch to to FG and FGers don't switch to FF. They, correctly, targeted seats where there were swing voters: eg-FG voters who previously switched to the PDs and independents. In doing that they picked up the biggest comparative seat total increase in Irish political history.

surely the PDs first election where they went from nothing to 14 seats was the most historic ocnsidering their relative new appearance on the stage and FGs history

[Insider2007]

Of course they weren't targeting FF seats. FFers don't switch to to FG and FGers don't switch to FF. They, correctly, targeted seats where there were swing voters: eg-FG voters who previously switched to the PDs and independents. In doing that they picked up the biggest comparative seat total increase in Irish political history.

surely the PDs first election where they went from nothing to 14 seats was the most historic ocnsidering their relative new appearance on the stage and FGs history

Firstly they did not go from nothing to 14. They had seats from defections in the previous Dáil.

Secondly, even if they would be described as winning a 'new' 14 seats that would still leave them in fourth place.

The list of comparable seat gains (ie, where the Dáil did not change seat numbers, as happened in 1981 when Garret FitzGerald gained 22 but the Dáil had increased by 18 TDs, and where all seats were contested, unlike the SF elections in 1918 and 1921 when in the former many seats were uncontested and in the latter all seats were uncontested) is

* Fine Gael under Kenny (2007) + 20 seats.
* Labour under Spring (1992: The 'Spring Tide') + 18 seats.
* Fianna Fáil under Lynch (1977. The 'Lynch Landslide') + 16 seats.

[baldur0300]

Next time, having got back seats from independents and the PDs, they will be targeting the Greens, almost all of whose seats are within their grasp and most of which were won on FG transfers, as swingable FF seats.

Use some cop-on.

Stop saying that, its completely wrong. I've posted this before but you didn't reply. Here I go again.

FG transfers to the GP.

Carlow-Kilkenny. 710 transfers to White. 13.59% of available transferable votes. (621 FF transfers to White. 31.05% of available transferable votes.)

Dublin Mid West. No FG transfers for Gogerty. (1300 FF transfers to Gogerty. 20.42% of available transferable votes)

Dublin North. No FG transfers for Sargent. (29 FF transfers to Sargent. 0.35% of the available tranferable votes.)

Dublin South. 303 transfers to Ryan. 10.11% of available transferable votes. (145 FF transfers to Ryan. 4.27% of the available transferable votes.)

Dublin South East. No FG transfers to Gormley. (679 FF transfers to Gormley. 17.86% of transferable votes)

Dun Laoighaire. 3834 transfers to Cuffe. 26.4% of available transferable votes.(113 FF transfers to Cuffe. 4.94% of transferable votes)

So it is only Cuffe that won his seat on the back of FG transfers rather than your claim that most of their seats were won on that basis. Indeed without any indication that FF and the GP would be forming a government Gogerty won his seat on the back of FF transfers.

[MookieBaylock]

Of course they weren't targeting FF seats. FFers don't switch to to FG and FGers don't switch to FF. They, correctly, targeted seats where there were swing voters: eg-FG voters who previously switched to the PDs and independents. In doing that they picked up the biggest comparative seat total increase in Irish political history.

er, yes, they do, how do you think garret did the business?? my own mother, a life-long FFer has twice voted FG, 82 and 07.. they do, trust me on that.. for FG to win next time, they will need to take 5 or 6 FF seats using current FF votes as Labour do not seem capable of moving above 20 at the moment..

[MacO'velli]

Of course they weren't targeting FF seats. FFers don't switch to to FG and FGers don't switch to FF. They, correctly, targeted seats where there were swing voters: eg-FG voters who previously switched to the PDs and independents. In doing that they picked up the biggest comparative seat total increase in Irish political history.

surely the PDs first election where they went from nothing to 14 seats was the most historic ocnsidering their relative new appearance on the stage and FGs history

The point that most people seem to ignore is that they now have less seats than Baldy had when he went into the 02 election, they did well to come back, but the trend is downward.
It suggests that the core FG voter demographic is aging and as time passes less people see the point in two centreist parties.The people are saying FF will do us fine thanks!