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About LinkBacksPredictions for 2009.
clondalkin: Labour 2, FF 1, SWP 1, FG 1. SF/PD loss. LAB/SWP gain
Predictions for 2009.
clondalkin: Labour 2, FF 1, SWP 1, FG 1. SF/PD loss. LAB/SWP gain
[color=#BF0000]Seamas de Faoite,[/color]
BUMP
[color=#BF0000]Seamas de Faoite,[/color]
Current arrangement in Clondalkin is:
1 LAB, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 PD
Likely outcome in 2009:
Labour to retain Dowds seat with ease. Possibility of second seat in North Clondalkin, but a tough ask all the same.
Sinn Féin - topped poll last time out. Although O'Connor has disappointed on the ground he is still likely to be returned at the next local election. SF performance in the GE would support the view that SF have consolidated their support in Clondalkin, especially around Neilstown, etc.
Fianna Fáil - Gilligan, in spite of his little local difficulty with Oireachtas envelopes is still in a reasonably good position, providing his problematic relationship with Curran's people does not deteriorate further. Either way FF are assured of at least one seat, possibly two (see below) at the next election.
Fine Gael - Ridge pretty safe. Assuming she runs again then FG will definitely retain the seat.
PD - very poor showing across the constituency in the GE. Resignation of Tyndall and change out of councillors, and implosion of PD national organisation has to put this seat at risk. Likely gain if seat is lost will be either FF or at a stretch Labour.
SWP - You have to be joking Seamas. Not a chance of their taking a seat at all.
Greens - fecked! No chance either.
This, of course, depends on the constituency review not changing the number of councillors returned for Clondalkin to SDCC. If the review removes a seat from Clondalkin, then it will be the PD one that is most at risk.
Why do you do this 'bump' thing. If the thread is of any real interest it will generate its own momentum.Originally Posted by seamasdefaoite
Cut it out. There's a good man.
gino kenny polled over a thousand first preferences in the GE. combine that with any 2nd preferences and he'll get in
[color=#BF0000]Seamas de Faoite,[/color]
That's not a great way of looking at it. You'd need a breakdown of the areas - box by box. Remember that he's not running in the same constituency, he's running in a specific ward within that constituency.gino kenny polled over a thousand first preferences in the GE. combine that with any 2nd preferences and he'll get in
Does anyone know if the SWP will be using the PBP title again?
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Exactly Pidge.That's not a great way of looking at it. You'd need a breakdown of the areas - box by box. Remember that he's not running in the same constituency, he's running in a specific ward within that constituency.gino kenny polled over a thousand first preferences in the GE. combine that with any 2nd preferences and he'll get in
Does anyone know if the SWP will be using the PBP title again?
Best way of assessing Gino's chances in the absence of box-by-box GE figures, and other than slaughtering a cockerel and determining liklely election results from its death-throes, is to look at the votes cast in the last Local Elections in Clondalkin:
Fianna Fáil: 1.18 of quota
Labour: 1.13 of quota
Sinn Féin: 1.02 of quota
Fine Gael: 0.72 of quota
Prog Dems: 0.69 of quota
SWP: 0.44 of quota
Green: 0.38 quota
As you can see Seamas, there is little likelihood of Gino even begining to present a serious threat to the main party candidates in 2009. The figures also illustrate the precarious position that the PD's are in, as well as the likely beneficiaries of a PD collapse (i.e. FF and Labour).
not sure I agree.....locals can be funny........
Mick Murphy got 2500 odd in tallaght central and 1000 or more less in dsw..........
Kenny polled highest in north clondalkin with virtually no vote in lucan. he'll get in, id be suprised if he didntThat's not a great way of looking at it. You'd need a breakdown of the areas - box by box. Remember that he's not running in the same constituency, he's running in a specific ward within that constituency.gino kenny polled over a thousand first preferences in the GE. combine that with any 2nd preferences and he'll get in
Does anyone know if the SWP will be using the PBP title again?
[color=#BF0000]Seamas de Faoite,[/color]
I only have the tallies from Dun Laoighaire. How high relative to other parties did PBP rank?Kenny polled highest in north clondalkin with virtually no vote in lucan. he'll get in, id be suprised if he didntThat's not a great way of looking at it. You'd need a breakdown of the areas - box by box. Remember that he's not running in the same constituency, he's running in a specific ward within that constituency.gino kenny polled over a thousand first preferences in the GE. combine that with any 2nd preferences and he'll get in
Does anyone know if the SWP will be using the PBP title again?
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