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  1. #1
    LeDroit LeDroit is offline
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    The Next General Election- 2014.

    There are few reliables in the otherwise unpredictable world of politics but one truism in Irish politics is that an incumbent govt always get a kicking in midterm local elections. The theory seems to be that, even in normal times, a govt does the necessarily nasty stuff in the first half of a term and then goes into appeasement and bribery mode the closer they get to the next General Election. The electorate know this too, and so they are programmed to 'send govt a message' by giving their councillors a good kicking thereby ensuring a couple of years of giveaway budgets before the GE.

    That's in normal times. Well, we're not in Kansas anymore Toto and there are no cookies left to hand out.

    The next LEs in 2014 would be only a maximum of 18-20 months away from the subsequent GE. That's if the govt wanted another winter election. Typically govts like to call GEs in summer time with long, bright evenings for canvassing and voters of a sunnier disposition generally. So most would seem to agree that the next GE will be Summer 2015. That is only 12 months from the LEs. Twelve months from when FG and Labour will, as explained above, get a good kicking from the electorate and lose a lot of council seats.

    I don't think it's a stretch to say Sinn Féin and ULA-types will take a lot of Labour scalps. From FG's point of view, would there be a better time for a new party to overtake them on their Right flank than just 12 months before a GE following a LE kicking? As a result, the LE results will cause panic on the Labour and FG backbenches.

    Both FG and Labour will lose Dáil seats next time out, even they know that. The historic numbers they reached in 2011 will not be replicated. So imagine you're a Labour or FG backbencher knowing this. Now imagine you've just seen your constituency colleagues in the LEs get trounced. 12 months and ticking..... Discipline among backbenchers will collapse as the panic sets in, the govt will then be seen as panicked and out of control as loose lips and media briefing against each other will become the order of the day. An inter-party media war will ensue as the parties try to win back their bases.

    I think a better strategy for FG and especially Labour would be to go to the country early and coincide the GE with the LEs, having the GE in Summer 2014. Otherwise, they will allow a 12 month head of steam build up which will split the coalition and embolden their opponents.
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  2. #2
    Sync Sync is offline
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    You seem to be assuming a lot that isn't borne out by history.

    A: We've never seen discipline collapse on the backbenches leading open revolt the way you seem to think will happen. Even when FF were heading for destruction as a party of 71 seats, they held it together pretty well (I think 3 people left? Maybe less). There's no indication it'll happen here.

    B: There's no prospect of a party to the right of FG overtaking them. None at all. For one thing, there IS no party to the right of FG right now. Even if Ganley and McDowell get it together, organise a party and get ....ooh let's be hopelessly optimistic and say 10% of the seats, they'll just fall into coalition with FG. There's nowhere else for them to go.

    C: Any change in Govt is going to require FF agreeing to go in with SF (Which I think they'll be willing to do next GE, but again, no indication of it so far). More importantly for the govt to change it would involve the independents going in with SF (They won't) or Labour (They won't).

    D: No one cares about local elections on a national stage. After the elections they're immediately forgotten about. They're never brought up in national debates.

    E: Better off to go to the end of the term and rely on the economy pick up. If things are good in Jan 2013 hell hold the election in May that year. Same thing for 2014, 2015 etc. If the economy hasn't picked up just drag it out to the end.
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  3. #3
    hammer hammer is offline
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    FG / Lab will do well in the local elections as TINA.

    Every day that goes by brings us closer to regaining sovereignty and getting some sort of deal on promissory notes, interest rates etc...

    Also the EU will stabilise and confidence will return late 2012 early 2013.

    Next GE 2016.
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  4. #4
    ergo2 ergo2 is offline

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    Next GE too long away to call imho, unless Joan Burton generates some instabity in Labour.

    Then if in LE 2014 Labour lose ground to SF they might decide to leave the coalition.
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  5. #5
    Maction Maction is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammer View Post
    FG / Lab will do well in the local elections as TINA.

    Every day that goes by brings us closer to regaining sovereignty and getting some sort of deal on promissory notes, interest rates etc...

    Also the EU will stabilise and confidence will return late 2012 early 2013.

    Next GE 2016.
    No one takes you seriously.....
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  6. #6
    tribade tribade is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammer View Post
    FG / Lab will do well in the local elections as TINA.

    Every day that goes by brings us closer to regaining sovereignty and getting some sort of deal on promissory notes, interest rates etc...

    Also the EU will stabilise and confidence will return late 2012 early 2013.

    Next GE 2016.
    You really do sound like Oggy these days Hammer and you're better than that. Quit the spinning
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  7. #7
    TheOtherRiverR(h)ine TheOtherRiverR(h)ine is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    B: There's no prospect of a party to the right of FG overtaking them. None at all. For one thing, there IS no party to the right of FG right now. Even if Ganley and McDowell get it together, organise a party and get ....ooh let's be hopelessly optimistic and say 10% of the seats, they'll just fall into coalition with FG. There's nowhere else for them to go.
    Spot on. Even if it somehow manages to get off the ground given the fact that Ganley and McDowell have massive egos, any new right wing party will lack the foot soldiers and probably money to fight an election. Also lets face it it's vote will be entirely concentrated in the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Pembroke-Rathmines quadrilateral. If they go into coalition with FG at the end of the five years they'll be regarded as attractive as a used condom by the electorate.

    C: Any change in Govt is going to require FF agreeing to go in with SF (Which I think they'll be willing to do next GE, but again, no indication of it so far). More importantly for the govt to change it would involve the independents going in with SF (They won't) or Labour (They won't).
    Seriously there is absolutely no love for FF within SF. SF would rather remain on the opposition benches as the largest party rather than hook up with Zanu-FF. FG-FF more likely.


    D: No one cares about local elections on a national stage. After the elections they're immediately forgotten about. They're never brought up in national debates.
    They give a rough indication of whose going to run in the next general election and the party strength in the constituency. If Labour can hold some of their gains in the country and keep losses in Dublin to a minimum they might survive the scalping they'll get in the GE.
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  8. #8
    simeongrimes simeongrimes is offline

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    Rather than a right-wing party emerging I think the next election will see a lot of right-wing Independents elected. Why tie yourself to controversial national figures like Ganley and McDowell when the success of Shane Ross and Stephen Donnelly is a better model. Of course Sync's point still stands and supporting FG may be necessary. But FG supported by like-minded Independents may be an alternative to FG/Labour.
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  9. #9
    stakerwallace stakerwallace is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by simeongrimes View Post
    Rather than a right-wing party emerging I think the next election will see a lot of right-wing Independents elected. Why tie yourself to controversial national figures like Ganley and McDowell when the success of Shane Ross and Stephen Donnelly is a better model. Of course Sync's point still stands and supporting FG may be necessary. But FG supported by like-minded Independents may be an alternative to FG/Labour.
    Were I an FG strategist, I would hardly like to rely on mavericks like Ross, or indeed Ganley, to keep the show on the road.
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  10. #10
    Rocky Rocky is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    You seem to be assuming a lot that isn't borne out by history.

    A: We've never seen discipline collapse on the backbenches leading open revolt the way you seem to think will happen. Even when FF were heading for destruction as a party of 71 seats, they held it together pretty well (I think 3 people left? Maybe less). There's no indication it'll happen here.

    B: There's no prospect of a party to the right of FG overtaking them. None at all. For one thing, there IS no party to the right of FG right now. Even if Ganley and McDowell get it together, organise a party and get ....ooh let's be hopelessly optimistic and say 10% of the seats, they'll just fall into coalition with FG. There's nowhere else for them to go.

    C: Any change in Govt is going to require FF agreeing to go in with SF (Which I think they'll be willing to do next GE, but again, no indication of it so far). More importantly for the govt to change it would involve the independents going in with SF (They won't) or Labour (They won't).

    D: No one cares about local elections on a national stage. After the elections they're immediately forgotten about. They're never brought up in national debates.

    E: Better off to go to the end of the term and rely on the economy pick up. If things are good in Jan 2013 hell hold the election in May that year. Same thing for 2014, 2015 etc. If the economy hasn't picked up just drag it out to the end.
    On a historical basis Fianna Fail got destoryed in the Locals in 2004 and went on to win the 2007 general election.

    This election will be won or lost on how the ecomony is doing. If there are clear signs of recovery and people are beginning to feel it, than the government will win, if there isn't they'll lose. The longer the government holds on the better the chance that the effect of an economic recovery will be beginning to be felt (obviously not absolute though, the economy could be well on the way in say 2015 and then there could be oil crisis or something) and so it's in their interest to hold on until 2016.
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