A two party state in 10 years?

[Defeated Romanticist]

With the imminent demise of the Progressive Democrats, the Greens and the Stalingrad like blow inflicted on Sinn Fein that leaves Ireland with a 2 1/2 party system. But given the age profile of the Labour party and their stale policies It is difficult to see a long term future for them.
In contrast both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are better funded than ever before, have decent age profiles and slick organisational structures. With this in mind could we be facing into a two party state in the near future?

[Edo]

sounds fantastico - 2 massive clientalist parties that have so much in common you could hardly slip a rizzla paper between them

now where did I put the cyanide?

[ivnryn]

Well, if so, the choices will be FG/Lab or FF ... assuming that the public vote pro-business, who will win ... again and again and again ?

Even if sometimes FF needs Lab, FG will always need Lab.

[Mary Frances]

With the imminent demise of the Progressive Democrats, the Greens and the Stalingrad like blow inflicted on Sinn Fein that leaves Ireland with a 2 1/2 party system. But given the age profile of the Labour party and their stale policies It is difficult to see a long term future for them.
In contrast both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are better funded than ever before, have decent age profiles and slick organisational structures. With this in mind could we be facing into a two party state in the near future?

You could be right. The PDs seem to be in terminal decline and Sinn Fein and the Greens will remain small parties. And Labour's age profile means they'll almost certainly lose seats next time.

[ON THE ONE ROAD]

With the imminent demise of the Progressive Democrats, the Greens and the Stalingrad like blow inflicted on Sinn Fein that leaves Ireland with a 2 1/2 party system. But given the age profile of the Labour party and their stale policies It is difficult to see a long term future for them.
In contrast both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are better funded than ever before, have decent age profiles and slick organisational structures. With this in mind could we be facing into a two party state in the near future?

in the future! it's been like that for the last 80 years

[Samarkand]

Mary Frances, Haven't seen your other posts before this eve, but am guessing you are possibly in the Labour Party. I only get to log on this website occasionally due to time constraints, but even so, have noticed that both FG and SF (or at least ROC, who seems to be on this site full-time ) have swung straight into strong debates about how to proceed to the next election. The next election campaign [/i]has already started.

What are Labour doing??

I realise and fully accept this site is but a ... portion 8) ... of the electorate. Still, I think it reps a fairly good cross-section of active politically engaged people.

honestly, tell me if i'm totally off-base and point me to the relevant threads, but as an occ. user, these Lab. threads to NOT jump out at one ...

[Defeated Romanticist]

Mary Frances posted:

You could be right. The PDs seem to be in terminal decline and Sinn Fein and the Greens will remain small parties. And Labour's age profile means they'll almost certainly lose seats next time.

I personally don't see any future for either the Greens or Sinn Fein let alone the PDs,
Gogarty, Cuffe, Gormley, White would all loose there seats if there was an election tomorrow because they would not get the transfers from the rainbow, Sinn Fein and independants that they got in '02 and '97. Ryans seat is probably in danger as well and Sargent will hold but a Green party could not rebuild with only a former leader in the Dail. They also suffer from the problem that they have been hugged to death by the other parties just like the PDs. Sinn Fein have vunerable seats in Louth and DSC and from what I've read on this forum in Kerry. I beleive they will introvert back into themselves againand disappear as an electoral force. Fianna Fail are the only party that can take out Sinn Fein and the have figured it out.

[Samarkand]

bloody italics button, can never get that right!! 8)

[Samarkand]

Mary Frances posted:

You could be right. The PDs seem to be in terminal decline and Sinn Fein and the Greens will remain small parties. And Labour's age profile means they'll almost certainly lose seats next time.

I personally don't see any future for either the Greens or Sinn Fein let alone the PDs,
Gogarty, Cuffe, Gormley, White would all loose there seats if there was an election tomorrow because they would not get the transfers from the rainbow, Sinn Fein and independants that they got in '02 and '97. Ryans seat is probably in danger as well and Sargent will hold but a Green party could not rebuild with only a former leader in the Dail. They also suffer from the problem that they have been hugged to death by the other parties just like the PDs. Sinn Fein have vunerable seats in Louth and DSC and from what I've read on this forum in Kerry. I beleive they will introvert back into themselves againand disappear as an electoral force. Fianna Fail are the only party that can take out Sinn Fein and the have figured it out.

That's it, I'm moving to a better clime ... like Mexico ... agh no, another FF-type one-party-type State!! ...

[Meursault]

For god sake the next election is 4-5 years away and we already have people speculating on what will happen not just at that election but for the next era of politics as to the results in Carlow/Killkenny etc. The fact is that the electoral system will continue to see small party's proliferate, which ones flourish will depend on the concerns of the day.